The surface deformation of the 2020 Doğanyol-Sivrice earthquake ( Mw 6 . 8 ) and the earlier events suggest Mw˂ 7 . 0 earthquakes do not create significant surface slip along the East Anatolian Fault Zone

1 The 2020 Mw 6.8 Doğanyol-Sivrice earthquake occurred on the Pütürge Segment of the 2 left-lateral East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ). Our field investigation within 6 weeks after the 3 earthquake suggests the following results. (1) The 2020 earthquake created a ~54-km-long 4 surface deformation zone along the Pütürge Segment. (2) No co-seismic surface slip has been 5 formed after the earthquake. (3) The deformation zone consisted of intense ground fissures, rock 6 falls, landslides, liquefaction of various lengths mostly occurred along fault traces mapped in 7 previous active fault investigations. When we have evaluated our field findings together with the 8 previous historical and instrumental earthquake data the following results on the long-term 9 behavior of the EAFZ have been determined. The significant co-seismic offset (between 2.0 and 10 4.5 meters) only forms when the earthquake magnitudes reach to Mw 7.0 along the EAFZ. In the 11 last 160 years, ~300-km-long part of the EAFZ ruptured with 7 major earthquakes (6.7≤Ms≤7.2). 12 The ~130-km-long part of the EAFZ still remains as seismic gap. Here we name two most 13 important seismic gaps of the EAFZ as the Kahramanmaraş and the Bingöl Seismic Gaps. 14

-The earthquake created a ~54-km-long surface deformation zone.
-No co-seismic surface slip has been formed after the earthquake.
-Evaluation of our field findings together with the previous historical/instrumental earthquake data the following results on the long-term behavior of the EAFZ have been determined.
-The significant co-seismic offset (between 2.0 and 4.5 meters) only forms when the earthquake magnitudes reach to Mw 7.0 along the EAFZ.
-The ~130-km-long part of the EAFZ still remains as seismic gap.

INTRODUCTION 43
The left-lateral strike-slip East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), the active plate boundary 44 between the Anatolian and Arabian lithospheric plates, extends for ~430 km in NE-SW direction 45 between Karlıova (Bingöl) and Kahramanmaraş ( Fig. 1A-1B) (Şengör, 1979;Reilinger and 46 McClusky, 2011). The EAFZ connects with the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Karlıova 47 documented covering an area of 60 km-long, 15 km-wide and all of the aftershocks have 146 occurred in the first 20 km of the crust (Fig 2C). This data well coincides with the relocated 147 aftershock focal depths (7 to 17 km -Pousse-Beltran et al., 2020) and the results of an 148 earthquake tomography study suggesting a maximum of 20 km depth for seismogenic zone along 149 the EAFZ (Özer et al., 2019). 150

RESULTS OF THE FIELD STUDY 151
Despite its large magnitude, the 2020 earthquake was accompanied by no surface 152 ruptures. In this section, we report the results of our field survey with insights on location, 153 distribution, the orientation of the deformation associated with the 2020 earthquake (Table 3). 154 We have mapped surface deformation for a distance over 54 km associated with the 2020 155 earthquake. The earthquake followed by significant liquefaction, landslides, rockfalls, pressure 156 ridge, and fissure formations. 157 In the southwestern area, between Ormaniçi and Tosunlu villages (Pütürge, Malatya), the 158 deformation zone associated with the 2020 earthquake does not always coincide with previously 159 inferred faults (Fig. 3A). Instead, the deformation zone widens towards the northern part of the  Table 3), approximately 30 km southwest of the epicenter (Fig. 3B). This is the 164 southwesternmost co-seismic deformation structure we have mapped in our field study. The 165 observed rockfalls and landslides on the northern side of this cliff and the extensive fissure 166 formation also going towards the south indicate severe co-seismic damage around this pressure 167 ridge. Another highly deformed area with major deep-reaching ground fissures (loc. 2 in Fig. 3A  168 and Table 3) was observed at the north of the Mollahan Stream (Fig. 3C). Here, the deep-169 reaching ground fissures can be interpreted as the faults bounding the asymmetric grabens of a 170 small transtensional pull-apart basin, formed during the 2020 earthquake (Fig. 3C). This small 171 pull-apart basin is a ~50-meters-long and ~7-meters-wide structure and the general trend of the 172 ground fissures in this basin is N75E (Table 3), parallel to the main fault direction (Fig. 3A-3C). 173 The most prominent liquefaction (loc. 4 in Fig. 3A and Table 3) observed 4.2 km east of 174 Ormaniçi (Fig. 3D) where one stream channel offset sinistrally about 1.6 km ( Fig. 3A) with the historical earthquakes. We have visited this liquefaction area twice; (1) on 25 January 2020, the 176 day after the 2020 earthquake and, (2) on 4 May 2020. On 24 January 2020, we observed a 177 formation of a spherical crack with little sand eruption, discharges of spring, and sulfur smell 178 (Fig. 3D). During our second visit, on 4 May 2020, erupted sand and discharged spring water 179 seemed to be covered entire liquefaction area with a diameter of ~10 meters. Discharge of water 180 and gas (manifested by bubbles) was continuing at the site. In Tosunlu Village, ~14 km SW of 181 the epicenter, numbers of discontinuous ground fissures (loc. 5 in Fig. 3A and Table 3) whit a 182 general orientation of N70E (Fig. 3E) and severe damage of the houses were together observed. 183 In the northeastern co-seismically damaged area, between Doğanyol (Malatya) and 184 Sivrice (Elazığ), the deformation zone associated with the 2020 earthquake coincides with 185 previously inferred faults (Fig. 4A). Sivrice district stays at the northeastern tip of the 186 deformation zone (Fig. 4A), we observed no deformation as we go further northeast. Destruction 187 in Sivrice is very little however the Sivrice Mosque (loc. 19 in Fig. 4A and Table 3) (Table 3) coincides with the N60E direction of the Pütürge Segment 197 reported by Duman and Emre (2013). In some of these locations, sand eruption indicating 198 liquefaction accompanies the cracks (e.g., loc 14 in Table 3 and Fig. 4A). Between Akseki and 199 Sivrice, an approximately 4 km long area above the previously mapped active faults is severely 200 damaged ( Fig. 4A and Table 3; locations 10 to 16). Along this area, co-seismically triggered 201 landslides (loc. 9), gravitational cracks with up to 40-50 cm downward movement ( Fig. 4D; loc 202 13), overturned-damaged trees with up to 50 cm diameter (loc. 11) and severe damage on 203 telephone poles ( Fig. 4E; loc 12) are together observed (for locations see Fig. 4A and Table 3). 204 Çevrimtaş Village (Sivrice, Elazığ) which stays only at ~2 km NE of the epicenter (Fig. 4A) is 205 one of the places that suffered the most damage in the 2020 earthquake. In this village, 90 % of 206 the houses were destroyed, two people were killed, 4 were injured and nearly 30 cattle also died. 207 The co-seismic faulting caused the formation of a pressure ridge just south of the Çevrimtaş 208 Village along the Karakaya Dam Lake that filled the Euphrates River Valley (Fig. 4F-4G; loc. 6 209 in Fig. 4A and Table 3). Over this pressure ridge, many cracks with an average N80E direction 210 were also formed (Fig. 4G). In Doğanyol (Malatya) which stays ~3 km south of the epicenter 211 ( Fig. 4A), we have also observed serious damage represented by intense ground fissures, rock 212 falls, landslides, destruction of houses and discharges of springs, during our field survey. record goes back to the 6 th century on the EAFZ (cf., Duman and Emre, 2013), however, for no 222 time interval earlier than the 19 th century we confidently identify reliable earthquake data that 223 also includes observed fault lengths, and co-seismic surface slip measurements (cf., Duman and 224 Emre, 2013). Thus, here we review the published data on major earthquakes (Ms≥6.7) that 225 occurred along the EAFZ in the last 160 years. This review suggests a relationship between the 226 earthquake magnitudes and the formation of co-seismic surface slip ( Fig. 5; Table 3). We also 227 plotted the time of these earthquakes vs their known ruptured fault length to show the position of 228 major seismic gaps (Fig. 5B), that we also discuss here briefly. 229 The first major earthquake of the 19 th century accepted as the Ms 7.5, 1822 earthquake 230 (Ambraseys and Jackson, 1998) that occurred at the southwestern part of the EAFZ (  (Table 3), the suggested 45 km rupture length seems more 241 compatible with the reported magnitude. Hence, we suggest approximately 10 km of the Ilıca 242 Segment was also ruptured together with the Karlıova Segment during the 1866 earthquake ( Fig.  243 5). A 3.5 ± 0.1 m co-seismic offset formed during the 1866 earthquake (Table 4) (Herece, 2008). 244  (Table 3). Recent the fieldwork of Duman and 251 Emre (2013) raised the average displacement of the 1874 earthquake to 3.5 + 0.5 m (Table 3). 252 A year later in 1875, a Ms 6.7 earthquake occurred on the northwestern part of the 253 Pütürge Segment (Ambraseys, 1989; Ambraseys and Jackson 1998; Herece, 2008). On the 254 contrary, Duman and Emre (2013) suggested that this earthquake occurred on the southwestern 255 part of the Palu segment which they called Lake Hazar releasing bend. In our opinion, this 256 proposition cannot be correct because their Lake Hazar releasing bend is only a 10 km long fault 257 zone (Duman and Emre, 2013), hence, incapable to create a Ms 6.7 earthquake. It has been 258 known that the 1875 earthquake caused a 20 km long surface faulting (Ambraseys and Jackson, 259 1998). We think that this value is a better assumption because close-sized (Mw 6.8) earthquakes 260 occurred on the EAFZ in the instrumental period formed at least 35 km long surface faulting 261 (Table 3). No offset was detected in the field related to the 1875 earthquake (cf., Herece, 2008;262 Duman and Emre, 2013). 263 In 1893 an earthquake of Ms 7.1 occurred on the Erkenek segment (Ambraseys, 1989;264 Ambraseys and Jackson 1998; Duman and Emre, 2013). A left-lateral displacement of 4.5 m 265 (Table 3) is attributed (Herece 2008) to this highly destructive earthquake (Ambraseys, 1989).
According to Duman and Emre (2013), this event caused the formation of 86-km-long surface 267 faulting. The damage zone covered a 220 km long, and 120 km wide area (Ambraseys, 1989). 268 When the highly destructive nature of this event (Ambraseys, 1989) evaluated together with the 269 86-km-long surface faulting (Duman and Emre, 2013) it can be speculated that the magnitude of 270 the 1893 earthquake could be even higher than the Ms 7.1. 271 In 1905, a Ms 6.8 earthquake (Ambraseys 1989 It is reported that the earth was split into many places, the road is cut, presumably by landslides 276 (Ambraseys 1989) with no co-seismic surface slip (Table 3) (Table 3). Along the tension gashes oriented 293 nearly perpendicular to the main fault, 5 to 10 cm vertical offset was also formed during the 294 Bingöl earthquake (Arpat and Şaroğlu, 1972). 295

THE SEISMIC GAPS ALONG THE EAST ANATOLIAN FAULT
As it is shown in Figure 5, two segments with a total length of 108 km seem to be 297 carrying a high risk of major earthquakes; the Gökdere and the Pazarcık Segments (Nalbant et 298 al., 2002;Duman and Emre, 2013). Additionally, the approximately 20-km-long northeastern 299 part of the Palu Segment which is in connection with the Gökdere Segment also seemed to be a 300 seismic gap (Fig. 5). Some InSAR studies suggest that the 100-km-long Palu Segment Segments generated by the 1971 (M 6.8) Bingöl earthquake. Hence, a 45 to 50-km-long 312 earthquake rupture with a possible magnitude between Mw 6.7 and 7.0 (see Table 4 Figure 3A. See text and also Table 3 for the explanation.  Figure 2A. 530 Table 2. Parameters for fault plane solutions of the 2020 earthquake and its Mw≥4.0 aftershocks 531 (from AFAD database) depicted in Figure 2B-2C. 532 Table 3. Field data of the 24 January 2020 Mw 6.8 Doğanyol-Sivrice earthquake. 533 Table 4. Earthquakes (Ms≥6.7) on the EAFZ since 1866 with the co-seismic surface slip values 534 reported for each earthquake. Dates, magnitudes, epicenters and observed fault lengths of the are 535 from, Şaroğlu (1972, McKenzie (1972), Seymen and Aydın (1972), Ambraseys 536 (1989), Ambraseys and Jackson (1998), and Nalbant et al. (2002). Date, magnitude, the epicenter 537 of the 2020 earthquake is from AFAD and ruptured fault length is measured during our study. 538 Segment names are from Duman and Emre (2013). Table 1 Event no ---Date / Hour (GMT)----Latitude Longitude Strike Dip Rake Magnitude (in Fig. 2A) Table 2 Event no ---Date / Hour (GMT)----Latitude Longitude Depth Strike Dip Rake Magnitude (in Fig. 2B) Figure 3A. See text and also Table 3 for the explanation.