{"pk":24151,"title":"Thinking in proportions rather than probabilities facilitates Bayesian reasoning","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Bayesian reasoning tasks require processing data in proba-bilistic situations to revise risk estimations. Such tasks are difficult when data is presented in terms of single-event probabilities; the multiplicative combination of priors and likelihoods often is disregarded, resulting in er-roneous strategies such as prior neglect or averaging heu-ristics. Proportions (relative frequencies) are computation-ally equivalent to probabilities. However, proportions are connected to natural mental representations (so-called ra-tio sense). Mental representations of nested proportions (70% of 20%) allow for a mental operation that corre-sponds to a multiplicative combination of percentages. In two studies, we focused on the conceptual understanding underlying Bayesian reasoning by utilizing graphical rep-resentations without numbers (to avoid calculations with percentages). We showed that verbally framing Bayesian tasks in terms of proportions, as opposed to single-event probabilities, increased correct Bayesian judgment, and re-duced averaging heuristics. Thus, we claim, proportions can be regarded as a natural view on normalized Bayesian situations.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"Education; Psychology; Decision making; Reasoning; Bayesian modeling"}],"section":"Papers with Poster Presentation","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4p61c93w","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Katharina","middle_name":"","last_name":"Loibl","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Education Freiburg","department":""},{"first_name":"Timo","middle_name":"","last_name":"Leuders","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Education Freiburg","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2024-01-01T12:00:00-06:00","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24151/galley/13747/download/"},{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24151/galley/21663/download/"}]}