{"pk":24190,"title":"Effects of causal structure and evidential impact on probabilistic reasoning","subtitle":null,"abstract":"We compare two perspectives on base-rate neglect (Kahneman\n& Tversky, 1973) in probabilistic judgment. The evidential\nimpact perspective derives it from humans' focus on the\nimpact of evidence on belief, rather than conditional probabilities.\nThe Causal Models perspective derives it from humans'\ninability to integrate information that is causally opaque,\nas base-rates often are in such experiments. Because causal\nand evidential-impact relations are often concomitant and confounded,\nwe designed an experiment that specifically teases\napart their respective influence on probabilistic judgment. Our\nresults support a combination of the two perspectives, with\ncausal transparency influencing the degree to which one engages\nin evidential impact reasoning strategies.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"Psychology; Causal reasoning; Reasoning"}],"section":"Papers with Poster Presentation","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5g56p16z","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Can","middle_name":"","last_name":"Konuk","name_suffix":"","institution":"Institut Jean Nicod","department":""},{"first_name":"Nicolas","middle_name":"","last_name":"Navarre","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Edinburgh","department":""},{"first_name":"Salvador","middle_name":"","last_name":"Mascarenhas","name_suffix":"","institution":"Ecole Normale Supérieure","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2024-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24190/galley/13786/download/"},{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24190/galley/21122/download/"}]}