{"pk":24222,"title":"Opinion Averaging versus Argument Exchange","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Opinion averaging is a common means of judgment aggregation that is employed in the service of crowd wisdom effects. In this paper, we use simulations with agent-based models to highlight contexts in which opinion averaging leads to poor outcomes. Specifically, we illustrate the conditions under which the optimal posterior prescribed by a normative model of Bayesian argument exchange diverges from the mean belief that would be arrived at via simple averaging. The theoretical and practical implications of this are discussed.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"Philosophy; Psychology; Agent-based Modeling; Bayesian modeling"}],"section":"Papers with Poster Presentation","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9d14q4tv","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Ulrike","middle_name":"","last_name":"Hahn","name_suffix":"","institution":"Birkbeck, University of London","department":""},{"first_name":"Leon","middle_name":"","last_name":"Assaad","name_suffix":"","institution":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München","department":""},{"first_name":"Jason","middle_name":"W.","last_name":"Burton","name_suffix":"","institution":"Copenhagen Business School","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2024-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24222/galley/13818/download/"},{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24222/galley/21433/download/"}]}