{"pk":25610,"title":"The Exemplar Confusion Model:\nAn Account of Biased Probability Estimates in Decisions from Description","subtitle":null,"abstract":"At the core of every decision-making task are two\nsimple features; outcome values and probabilities. Over\nthe past few decades, many models have developed\nfrom von Neumann’ and Morgenstern’s (1945)\nExpected Utility Theory to provide a thorough account\nof people’s subjective value and probability weighting\nfunctions. In particular, one such model that has been\nlargely successful in both Psychology and Economics is\nCumulative Prospect Theory (CPT; Tversky &\nKahneman, 1992). While these models do fit people’s\nchoice behavior well, few models have attempted to\nprovide a psychological account for subjective value,\nprobability weighting, and resulting choice behavior. In\nthis paper, we focus on a memory confusion process as\ndescribed in Hawkins et al.’s (2014) exemplar-based\nmodel for decisions from experience, the Exemplar\nConfusion (ExCon) model, and adapt it to account for\nbiased probability estimates in decisions from\ndescription. Using Bayesian model selection\ntechniques, we demonstrate that it is able to account for\nreal choice data from a Rieskamp (2008) study using\ngains, losses, and mixed description-based gambles,\nand performs at least as well as CPT.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"Decisions from Description; Exemplar\nModel; Probability Estimation; Cumulative Prospect\nTheory; Bayesian Model Selection"}],"section":"Papers","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2qp20480","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Deborah","middle_name":"","last_name":"Lin","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of New South Wales","department":""},{"first_name":"Christopher","middle_name":"","last_name":"Donkin","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of New South Wales","department":""},{"first_name":"Ben","middle_name":"R","last_name":"Newell","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of New South Wales","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2015-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/25610/galley/15234/download/"}]}