{"pk":26135,"title":"A test of two models of probability judgment: quantum versus noisy probability","subtitle":null,"abstract":"We test contrasting predictions of two recent models of proba-bility judgment: the quantum probability model (Busemeyeret al., 2011) and the probability theory plus noise model(Costello and Watts, 2014). Both models assume that peo-ple estimate probability using formal processes that follow orsubsume standard probability theory. The quantum probabil-ity model predicts people’s estimates should agree with oneset of probability theory identities, while the probability the-ory plus noise model predicts a specific pattern of violation ofthose identities. Experimental results show just the form of vi-olation predicted by the probability theory plus noise model.These results suggest that people’s probability judgments donot follow quantum probability: instead, they follow the rulesof standard probability theory, with the systematic biases seenin those judgments due to the effects of random noise.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[],"section":"Papers","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1w83n9nr","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Fintan","middle_name":"J.","last_name":"Costello","name_suffix":"","institution":"University College Dublin","department":""},{"first_name":"Paul","middle_name":"","last_name":"Watts","name_suffix":"","institution":"National University of Ireland Maynooth,","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2016-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/26135/galley/15771/download/"}]}