{"pk":26506,"title":"Definitely maybe and possibly even probably: efficient communication ofhigher-order uncertainty","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Possibility and probability expressions, like possibly or prob-ably, are frequently assumed to communicate that the proba-bility of a proposition is above a certain threshold. Most pre-vious empirical research on these expressions has focused oncases of known objective chance: if the true objective proba-bility is given, would a speaker use possibly, probably or oneof their kin? Here, we investigate the use of probability expres-sions when speakers have subjective uncertainty about objec-tive chance, i.e., higher-order uncertainty. Experimental datasuggest that speakers’ choices of a probability expression is acomplex function of their state of higher-order uncertainty. Weformulate a computational probabilistic model of pragmaticspeaker behavior that explains the experimental data.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"uncertainty; probability; experimental pragmatics;computational modeling"}],"section":"Papers","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/02j8k2r2","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Michele","middle_name":"","last_name":"Herbstritt","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of T ̈ubingen","department":""},{"first_name":"Michael","middle_name":"","last_name":"Franke","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of T ̈ubingen","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2016-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/26506/galley/16142/download/"}]}