{"pk":26538,"title":"Adults’ guesses on probabilistic tasks reveal incremental representativeness biases","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Participants in most binary-choice tasks with multiple trialstend to probability-match (Vulkan, 2000) — i.e., provide re-sponses that match the probability distribution of the presentedpopulation. Given a single trial, however, participants usuallychoose the majority option (James & Koehler, 2011). By us-ing a method that visually presents the probabilities of the twocompeting options, we examine responses when participantsare given only a single trial, and initial responses when partic-ipants are given multiple trials. While we still observe aggre-gate probability-matching in the multiple-trial condition, wefind robust sequence effects in participants’ initial responses,including robust maximizing behavior on the first response.This suggests that both maximizing in single-trial experimentsand aggregate probability-matching in multiple-trial ones canbe explained by a single, underlying mechanism; one thatseeks to provide a representative sample at each point duringsequence generation.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"Decision making; statistics; psychology; humanexperimentation; probability-matching; maximizing."}],"section":"Papers","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4vp9n4wm","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Habiba","middle_name":"","last_name":"Azab","name_suffix":"","institution":"Meliora Hall","department":""},{"first_name":"David","middle_name":"","last_name":"Ruskin","name_suffix":"","institution":"Meliora Hall","department":""},{"first_name":"Celeste","middle_name":"","last_name":"Kidd","name_suffix":"","institution":"Meliora Hall","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2016-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/26538/galley/16174/download/"}]}