{"pk":26954,"title":"Modeling the Ellsberg Paradox by Argument Strength","subtitle":null,"abstract":"We present a formal measure of argument strength, whichcombines the ideas that conclusions of strong arguments are (i)highly probable and (ii) their uncertainty is relatively precise.Likewise, arguments are weak when their conclusion proba-bility is low or when it is highly imprecise. We show howthe proposed measure provides a new model of the Ellsbergparadox. Moreover, we further substantiate the psychologi-cal plausibility of our approach by an experiment (N = 60).The data show that the proposed measure predicts human in-ferences in the original Ellsberg task and in corresponding ar-gument strength tasks. Finally, we report qualitative data takenfrom structured interviews on folk psychological conceptionson what argument strength means.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"argument strength; coherence; Ellsberg paradox;probability logic"}],"section":"Talks: Papers","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3vm8r4ft","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Niki","middle_name":"","last_name":"Pfeifer","name_suffix":"","institution":"Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich","department":""},{"first_name":"Hanna","middle_name":"","last_name":"Pankka","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Helsinki","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2017-01-01T13:00:00-05:00","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/26954/galley/16590/download/"}]}