{"pk":27205,"title":"Failure to use probability of success in deciding whether to pursue onegoal or two.","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Difficult tasks should be attempted one at a time, while easytasks can be undertaken in parallel. Reinforcing our previ-ous conclusion that people are surprisingly poor at applyingthis logic, we find people fail to select standing positions thatmaximize their probability of success in throwing a beanbaginto one of two possible hoops. We asked participants to ex-plicitly report their odds of successfully throwing a beanbaginto each hoop from the location they had chosen to stand,and estimates were highly accurate. Nonetheless, participantsfailed to use estimates of success appropriately to maximizesuccess, suggesting a failure of insight, rather than limited orinaccurate information, can account for suboptimal decisionsabout standing position.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"Bounded Rationality; Optimal Behaviour;Awareness; Decision Making."}],"section":"Posters: Papers","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/20g339ds","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Warren","middle_name":"R.G","last_name":"James","name_suffix":"","institution":"The Univerity of Aberdeen","department":""},{"first_name":"Alasdair","middle_name":"D.F.","last_name":"Clarke","name_suffix":"","institution":"The University of Essex","department":""},{"first_name":"Amelia","middle_name":"R.","last_name":"Hunt","name_suffix":"","institution":"The Univerity of Aberdeen","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2017-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/27205/galley/16841/download/"}]}