{"pk":27273,"title":"The strategic advantages of micro-targeted campaigning: A proof of principleBayesian Agent-Based Model","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Predicting the effect of persuasion campaigns is difficult, asbelief changes may cascade through a network. In recentyears, political campaigns have adopted micro-targetingstrategies that segment voters into fine-grained clusters formore specific targetting. At present, there is little evidencethat explores the efficiency of this method. Through anAgent-Based Model, the current paper provides a novelmethod for exploring predicted effects of strategic persuasioncampaigns.The voters in the model are rational and revise their beliefsin the propositions expounded by the politicians inaccordance with Bayesian belief updating through a sourcecredibility model.The model provides a proof of concept and shows strategicadvantages of micro-targeted campaigning. Despite havingonly little voter data allowing crude segmentation, the micro-targeted campaign consistently beat stochastic campaignswith the same reach. However, given substantially greaterreach, a positively perceived stochastic candidate can nullifyor beat a strategic persuasion campaigns.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"Agent-Based Model; Persuasion; Strategiccampaigns; Politics; Voting simulation"}],"section":"Posters: Papers","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/55f2z6rt","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Jens","middle_name":"Koed","last_name":"Madsen","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Oxford","department":""},{"first_name":"Toby","middle_name":"D.","last_name":"Pilditch","name_suffix":"","institution":"University College London","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2017-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/27273/galley/16909/download/"}]}