{"pk":27756,"title":"Casual Structure Learning with Continuous Variables in Continuous Time","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Interventions, time, and continuous-valued variables are all\npotentially powerful cues to causation. Furthermore, when\nobserved over time, causal processes can contain feedback\nand oscillatory dynamics that make inference hard. We\npresent a generative model and framework for causal infer-\nence over continuous variables in continuous time based on\nOrnstein-Uhlenbeck processes. Our generative model pro-\nduces a stochastic sequence of evolving variable values that\nmanifest many dynamical properties depending on the nature\nof the causal relationships, and a learner’s interventions (man-\nual changes to the values of variables during a trial). Our\nmodel is also invertible, allowing us to benchmark participant\njudgments against an optimal model. We find that when in-\nteracting with systems acting according to this formalism peo-\nple directly compare relationships between individual variable\npairs rather than considering the full space of possible models,\nin accordance with a local computations model of causal learn-\ning (e.g., Fernbach & Sloman, 2009). The formalism presented\nhere provides researchers in causal cognition with a powerful\nframework for studying dynamic systems and presents oppor-\ntunities for other areas in cognitive psychology such as control\nproblems.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"Casual learning"},{"word":"Continuous time"},{"word":"Continuous variables"},{"word":"Intervention"}],"section":"Publication-based-Talks","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3k68c185","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Zachary","middle_name":"J","last_name":"Davis","name_suffix":"","institution":"New York University","department":""},{"first_name":"Neil","middle_name":"R","last_name":"Bramley","name_suffix":"","institution":"New York University","department":""},{"first_name":"Bob","middle_name":"","last_name":"Rehder","name_suffix":"","institution":"New York University","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2018-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/27756/galley/17396/download/"}]}