{"pk":27802,"title":"Modeling the Dunning-Kruger Effect: A Rational Account of Inaccurate Self-Assessment","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Self-assessment, or the evaluation of one’s ability on a task, is\nwidely perceived as a fundamental skill, yet in most studies,\npeople are found to be poorly calibrated to their own abilities.\nSome results seem to show poorer calibration for low perform-\ners than for high performers. This effect has been explained\nin multiple ways: it could indicate worse metacognitive abil-\nity among the low performers (the “Dunning-Kruger” effect),\nor simply regression to the mean. To tease apart these expla-\nnations we develop a Bayesian model of self-assessment and\nevaluate its predictions in two experiments. Our results suggest\nthat poor self-assessment is caused by the influence of prior be-\nliefs and imperfect skill at determining whether a problem was\nsolved correctly or not, and offer only weak support for of a\nrelationship between metacognitive ability and performance.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"self-assessment"},{"word":"Logical reasoning"},{"word":"metacognition"},{"word":"Bayesian modeling"}],"section":"Publication-based-Talks","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5fh7m0zt","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Rachel","middle_name":"A","last_name":"Jansen","name_suffix":"","institution":"UC Berkley","department":""},{"first_name":"Anna","middle_name":"N","last_name":"Rafferty","name_suffix":"","institution":"Carleton College","department":""},{"first_name":"Thomas","middle_name":"L","last_name":"Griffiths","name_suffix":"","institution":"UC Berkley","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2018-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/27802/galley/17442/download/"}]}