{"pk":27904,"title":"High Chances and Close Margins: How Different Forecast Formats Shape Beliefs","subtitle":null,"abstract":"While a large literature has studied how people make\nforecasts, less is known about how lay people process\nand interpret forecasts presented to them. We contrast\ntwo common ways of communicating an uncertain fore-\ncast, as either a chance (e.g., the probability of winning)\nor as an expected margin (e.g., the point spread). Across\nfive studies, we find a robust chance-margin discrepan-\ncy: people tend to treat a chance forecast as conveying\ngreater probability of the higher-likelihood outcome than\nthe statistically equivalent margin forecast","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"Judgment; Decision Making; Linguistic Priming; Intertemporal Choice; Inference"}],"section":"Publication-based-Talks","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/64f2v89r","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Oleg","middle_name":"","last_name":"Urminsky","name_suffix":"","institution":"UChicago","department":""},{"first_name":"Lucy","middle_name":"","last_name":"Shen","name_suffix":"","institution":"Chinese University of Hong Kong","department":""},{"first_name":"Sondre","middle_name":"","last_name":"Nero","name_suffix":"","institution":"UChicago","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2018-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/27904/galley/17542/download/"}]}