{"pk":27941,"title":"Explaining Human Decisino Making in Optimal Stopping Tasks","subtitle":null,"abstract":"In an optimal stopping problem, people encounter a sequenceof options and are tasked with choosing the best one; once anoption is rejected, it is no longer available. Recent studies ofoptimal stopping suggest that people compare the current op-tion with an internal threshold and accept it when the optionexceeds the threshold. In contrast, we propose that humans de-cide to accept or reject an option based on an estimate of theprobability that a better option will be observed in the future.We develop a computational model that formalizes this idea,and compare the model to the optimal policy in two experi-ments. Our model provides a better account of the data thanthe optimal model. In particular, our model explains how thedistributional structure of option values affects stopping behav-ior, providing a step towards a more complete psychologicaltheory of optimal stopping.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"optimal stopping; cognitive modeling; sequential decision making; probabilistic choice behavior"}],"section":"Publication-based-Talks","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9v51f0hg","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Christiane","middle_name":"","last_name":"Baumann","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Zurich","department":""},{"first_name":"Henrik","middle_name":"","last_name":"Singmann","name_suffix":"","institution":"U of Zurich","department":""},{"first_name":"Vassilios","middle_name":"E","last_name":"Kaxiras","name_suffix":"","institution":"Belmont High School","department":""},{"first_name":"Samuel","middle_name":"J","last_name":"Gershman","name_suffix":"","institution":"Harvard","department":""},{"first_name":"Bettina","middle_name":"","last_name":"von Helveren","name_suffix":"","institution":"U of Zurich","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2018-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/27941/galley/17579/download/"}]}