{"pk":28695,"title":"Nested Sets and Natural Frequencies","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Is the nested sets approach to improving accuracy on Bayesian\nword problems simply a way of prompting a natural\nfrequencies solution, as its critics claim? Conversely, is it in\nfact, as its advocates claim, a more fundamental explanation of\nwhy the natural frequency approach itself works? Following\nrecent calls, we use a process-focused approach to contribute\nto answering these long-debated questions. We also argue for\na third, pragmatic way of looking at these two approaches and\nargue that they reveal different truths about human Bayesian\nreasoning. Using a think aloud methodology we show that\nwhile the nested sets approach does appear in part to work via\nthe mechanisms theorised by advocates (by encouraging a\nnested sets representation), it also encourages conversion of the\nproblem to frequencies, as its critics claim. The ramifications\nof these findings, as well as ways to further enhance the nested\nsets approach and train individuals to deal with standard\nprobability problems are discussed.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"Nested Sets; Natural frequencies; Bayesian; Base\nrate neglect"}],"section":"Papers with Poster Presentations","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/459793xb","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Stephen","middle_name":"H.","last_name":"Dewitt","name_suffix":"","institution":"University College London","department":""},{"first_name":"Anne","middle_name":"","last_name":"Hsu","name_suffix":"","institution":"Queen Mary University of London","department":""},{"first_name":"David","middle_name":"","last_name":"Lagnado","name_suffix":"","institution":"University College London","department":""},{"first_name":"Saoirse","middle_name":"Connor","last_name":"Desai","name_suffix":"","institution":"City University, London","department":""},{"first_name":"Norman","middle_name":"E.","last_name":"Fenton","name_suffix":"","institution":"Queen Mary University of London","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2019-01-02T02:00:00+08:00","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/28695/galley/18566/download/"}]}