{"pk":28943,"title":"Modeling Judgment Errors in Naturalistic Numerical Estimation","subtitle":null,"abstract":"We quantitatively modeled and compared two types of errorsin numerical estimation for naturalistic judgment targets: map-ping errors and knowledge errors. Mapping errors occur whenpeople make mistakes reporting their beliefs about a particularnumerical quantity (e.g. by inflating small numbers), whereasknowledge errors occur when people make mistakes usingtheir knowledge about the judgment target to form their be-liefs (e.g. by overweighting or underweighting cues). In twostudies, involving estimates of the calories of common fooditems and estimates of infant mortality rates in various coun-tries, we found that knowledge error models predicted partic-ipant estimates with very high out-of-sample accuracy rates,significantly outperforming the predictions of mapping errormodels. The knowledge error models were also able to iden-tify the objects and concepts most associated with incorrectestimates, shedding light on the psychological underpinningsof numerical judgment.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"judgment errors; numerical estimation; word em-beddings; word vectors; knowledge representation; cognitivemodel"}],"section":"Papers with Poster Presentations","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7sn168xk","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Wanling","middle_name":"","last_name":"Zou","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Pennsylvania","department":""},{"first_name":"Sudeep","middle_name":"","last_name":"Bhatia","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Pennsylvania","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2019-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/28943/galley/18814/download/"}]}