{"pk":29725,"title":"“Take the Middle” – Averaging Prior and Evidenceas Effective Heuristic in Bayesian Reasoning","subtitle":null,"abstract":"When humans revise their assumptions based on evidence, theyprocess information on the (un)certainties of the situation. Thisprocess can be modeled by a (mathematically optimal) Bayes-ian reasoning strategy. Humans typically deviate from thisnorm and apply heuristic strategies, often by only partially pro-cessing the available information (e.g., neglecting base rates).From a perspective of ecological rationality, such heuristicspossibly constitute viable cognitive strategies in certain situa-tions. We investigate the adequacy of a cognitively plausibleheuristic strategy, which amounts to approximately averagingthe probability information on prior hypotheses and evidence.We compare this strategy to optimal Bayesian reasoning and toinformation-neglecting strategies by exploring the situationalparameter space (number of hypotheses, prior and likelihoodvalues). Finally, we frame this in the context of teachers’ diag-nostic judgments on students’ potential misconceptions (pri-ors) based on students’ solutions (evidence) and interpret theresulting accuracy of decisions within the ecology of informalstudent assessment.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"Bayesian reasoning; averaging-prior-and-evidencestrategy; diagnostic judgments; ecological rationality"}],"section":"Poster Session 2","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1c0416jj","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Katharina","middle_name":"","last_name":"Loibl","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Education Freiburg","department":""},{"first_name":"Timo","middle_name":"","last_name":"Leuders","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Education Freiburg","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2020-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/29725/galley/19582/download/"}]}