{"pk":30780,"title":"Managing Uncertainty in Rule-based Reasoning","subtitle":null,"abstract":"There are two major problems associated with propagation of uncertainty in the rule-based modeling of human reasoning. O n e concerns how the possibly uncertain evidence in a rule's antecedents affects the rule's conclusion. The other concerns the issue of combining evidence across rules having the same conclusion. Two experiments were conducted in which psychological data were compared with a variety of mathematical models for managing uncertainty. Results of an experiment on the fu-st problem suggested that the certainty of the antecedents in a production rule can be summarized by the maximum of disjunctively connected antecedents and the minimum of conjunctively connected antecedents {maximin summarizing), and that the m a x i m u m certainty of the rule's conclusion can be scaled down by multiplication with the results of that summary{multiplication scaling). A second experiment suggested that the second problem can be solved with Heckerman's modified certainty factor model which sums the certainties contributed by each of two rules and divides by 1 plus their product.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[],"section":"Paper Presentations","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0v09m19w","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Thomas","middle_name":"R.","last_name":"Shultz","name_suffix":"","institution":"McGill University","department":""},{"first_name":"Philip","middle_name":"David","last_name":"Zelazo","name_suffix":"","institution":"McGill University","department":""},{"first_name":"Daniel","middle_name":"J.","last_name":"Engelberg","name_suffix":"","institution":"McGill University","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"1989-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/30780/galley/20629/download/"}]}