{"pk":33180,"title":"Heuristics Used in Reasoning with Multiple Causes and Effects","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Two experiments investigate the conjunction fallacy (judging that conjunctive probabilities are higher than the probabilities of the constituents). The conjunction fallacy was much less for P(E|C) tasks than for P(C|E) tasks. The results are explained in terms of the way people interpret the conditional probabilities. We argue that people prefer to reason from cause to effect (cause-to-effect reasoning heuristic), and for that reason, the instructions given for P(C|E) tasks were misinterpreted, resulting in apparent fallacy. In addition, we provide evidence showing that likelihood judgments are higher with more evidence (more-is-better heuristic).","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[],"section":"Long Papers","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4ns3q3wh","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Woo-Kyoung","middle_name":"","last_name":"Ahn","name_suffix":"","institution":"Department of Psychology, Yale University","department":""},{"first_name":"Brian","middle_name":"A.","last_name":"Nosek","name_suffix":"","institution":"Department of Psychology, Yale University","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"1998-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/33180/galley/24240/download/"}]}