{"pk":38171,"title":"A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia","subtitle":null,"abstract":"The escape from the “Malthusian trap” is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in African and West Asian countries in 2012–2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.","language":"en","license":null,"keywords":[{"word":"Malthusian trap"},{"word":"Cliodynamics"},{"word":"Political instability"},{"word":"Modernization"},{"word":"Secular cycles"},{"word":"Demography"},{"word":"African"},{"word":"International Relations and Affairs"},{"word":"Economics"},{"word":"History"},{"word":"American/U.S. Law/Legal Studies/Jurisprudence"},{"word":"City/Urban, Community and Regional Planning"}],"section":"Article","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/79t737gt","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Andrey","middle_name":"","last_name":"Korotayev","name_suffix":"","institution":"Russian State University for the Humanities, Moscow","department":"None"},{"first_name":"Julia","middle_name":"","last_name":"Zinkina","name_suffix":"","institution":"Russian Academy of Sciences Presidium’s Program “Complex System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of the World Dynamics”","department":"None"},{"first_name":"Svetlana","middle_name":"","last_name":"Kobzeva","name_suffix":"","institution":"Russian Academy of Civil Service","department":"None"},{"first_name":"Justislav","middle_name":"","last_name":"Bozhevolnov","name_suffix":"","institution":"Moscow State University","department":"None"},{"first_name":"Daria","middle_name":"","last_name":"Khaltourina","name_suffix":"","institution":"Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow","department":"None"},{"first_name":"Artemy","middle_name":"","last_name":"Malkov","name_suffix":"","institution":"Russian Academy of Sciences Presidium’s Program “Complex System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of the World Dynamics”","department":"None"},{"first_name":"Sergey","middle_name":"","last_name":"Malkov","name_suffix":"","institution":"Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences","department":"None"}],"date_submitted":"2010-11-04T22:03:30Z","date_accepted":"2010-11-04T22:03:30Z","date_published":"2011-12-15T08:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cliodynamics/article/38171/galley/28735/download/"}]}