{"pk":38281,"title":"Futurology Needs to Focus on Measurable Variables, Causality and Social Structural Models and Learn from Past Mistakes: A Response to “A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience.”","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Cliodynamics researchers are now reaching out to social science in a way  that opens  the  door  to  productive  collaboration  to  advance  a predictive,  applied  and ethical  science  of  social  breakdown,  social violence     and social change. This commentary, from an interdisciplinary  social  anthropologist  working  on  these  questions for some 40 years, reviews the advances in these areas in the social sciences over the past 100+ years, highlights where cliodynamics can learn from these advances to avoid replicating earlier mistakes, and analyzes cliodynamics researchers’ current efforts with suggestions for improvement and collaboration to unify and promote this area of study.","language":"en","license":{"name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0","short_name":"CC BY 4.0","text":"Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.\n\nNo additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0"},"keywords":[],"section":"Forum","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1247c4xr","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"David","middle_name":"","last_name":"Lempert","name_suffix":"","institution":"Humboldt University of Berlin, Institute for Asian and African Studies","department":"None"}],"date_submitted":"2019-05-07T01:15:43-07:00","date_accepted":"2019-05-07T01:15:43-07:00","date_published":"2018-12-31T00:00:00-08:00","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cliodynamics/article/38281/galley/28806/download/"}]}