Introduction: Various variables of weather are hypothesized to exert a small but measurable, significant influence on the development of cerebral infarctions (strokes). Improved characterization of this relationship would enhance understanding of the impact of climate change on healthcare demand. However, current data are conflicting regarding the exact nature of the direction and magnitude of the relationship between weather variables and stroke incidence.
\nMethods: We conducted a retrospective analysis using patient data from 2019 across the contiguous United States obtained from the TriNetX global research data network and weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration database. Data from hospitalized patients who had a diagnosis of cerebral infarction, as defined from International Classification of Diseases, 10th Rev, diagnosis codes, were used for analysis. Negative binomial regression calculated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) between stroke and various weather variables: temperature (°C), change in temperature, pressure, change in pressure, and precipitation.
\nResults: Our study included 92,422 patients across 92 healthcare systems. Regression analysis revealed a small but statistically significant association between stroke and change in temperature (IRR 1.0047, confidence interval 1.0012 - 1.0083, P = .010). The remaining variables in our model did not have a statistically significant effect on incidence of stroke.
\nConclusion: The data suggest that one aspect of weather, specifically day-to-day increases of ambient temperature, has a measurable small magnitude but statistically significant impact on local stroke patterns.
","language":"eng","license":{"name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0","short_name":"CC BY 4.0","text":"Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.\r\n\r\nNo additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0"},"keywords":[{"word":"cerebral infarctionstroke risk factors"},{"word":"environmental risk factors"},{"word":"temperature"},{"word":"pressure"},{"word":"Precipitation"},{"word":"cerebral infarction"},{"word":"stroke risk factors"}],"section":"Climate Change","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3k81j1p4","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Randall","middle_name":"L.","last_name":"Ung","name_suffix":"","institution":"Penn State Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, Department of Emergency Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania","department":""},{"first_name":"Jeffrey","middle_name":"S.","last_name":"Lubin","name_suffix":"","institution":"Penn State Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, Department of Emergency Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania","department":""}],"date_submitted":"2024-11-05T05:36:52.390000Z","date_accepted":"2025-03-22T20:56:24.542000Z","date_published":"2025-07-12T02:16:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/westjem/article/39685/galley/37029/download/"}]}