{"pk":46620,"title":"Forecasts and Drivers of Health Expenditure Growth in California","subtitle":null,"abstract":"California’s state government, employers and households are concerned about the future affordability of healthcare. We use health expenditure data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ Office of the Actuary to forecast California’s health expenditures from 2013 to 2022 and identify factors driving expenditure increases. Real health expenditures per capita (2013$) are forecasted to increase from $8,398 to $11,421 (or 36%), resulting in health expenditures increasing from 14.5% to 16.0% of California’s economy. Expenditure increases are mostly driven by gains in real income per capita (40-60%), followed by medical-specific inflation (23%), an aging population (14%), and insurance coverage gains (8%). The -4% to 16% residual is attributable to changes in the volume and mix of services and technology. Several innovations could potentially dampen these increases, such as shared-risk, value-based payment models, practice redesign initiatives, lower cost settings and healthcare professionals, many of which are found in accountable care organizations.","language":"en","license":null,"keywords":[{"word":"health expenditure forecasts"},{"word":"health expenditure growth"},{"word":"california"}],"section":"Articles","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4w62b6mq","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Brent","middle_name":"D.","last_name":"Fulton","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of California, Berkeley","department":"None"},{"first_name":"Richard","middle_name":"M.","last_name":"Scheffler","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of California, Berkeley","department":"None"},{"first_name":"Beth","middle_name":"K.","last_name":"Keolanui","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of California, Berkeley","department":"None"},{"first_name":"Stephen","middle_name":"M.","last_name":"Shortell","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of California, Berkeley","department":"None"}],"date_submitted":"2015-02-04T04:10:02Z","date_accepted":"2015-02-04T04:10:02Z","date_published":"2015-03-23T23:00:33Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cjpp/article/46620/galley/35306/download/"}]}