{"pk":49181,"title":"Calculating probabilities from imagined possibilities: Limitations in 4-year-olds","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Adults can calculate probabilities by running simulations and calculating proportions of each outcome. How does this ability develop? We developed a method that lets us bring computational modeling to bear on this question. A study of 40 adults and 31 4-year-olds indicates that unlike adults, many 4-year-olds use a single simulation to estimate probability distributions over simulated possibilities. We also implemented the 3-cups task, an established test of children's sensitivity to possibilities, in a novel format. We replicate existing 3-cups results. Moreover, children who our model categorized as running a single simulation on our novel task show a signature of running a single simulation in the 3-cups task. This signature is not observed in children who were categorized as running multiple simulations. This validates our model and adds to the evidence that about half of 4-year-olds don't evaluate multiple candidates for reality in parallel.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[],"section":"Papers with Oral Presentation","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/41j038vf","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Brian","middle_name":"","last_name":"Leahy","name_suffix":"","institution":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","department":""},{"first_name":"Vicente","middle_name":"","last_name":"Vivanco","name_suffix":"","institution":"MIT","department":""},{"first_name":"Samuel","middle_name":"J.","last_name":"Cheyette","name_suffix":"","institution":"MIT","department":""},{"first_name":"Kevin","middle_name":"A","last_name":"Smith","name_suffix":"","institution":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","department":""},{"first_name":"Lucy","middle_name":"J","last_name":"White","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Bath","department":""},{"first_name":"Roman","middle_name":"","last_name":"Feiman","name_suffix":"","institution":"Brown","department":""},{"first_name":"Laura","middle_name":"","last_name":"Schulz","name_suffix":"","institution":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","department":""},{"first_name":"Joshua","middle_name":"B.","last_name":"Tenenbaum","name_suffix":"","institution":"MIT","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2025-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/49181/galley/37142/download/"},{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/49181/galley/38687/download/"}]}