{"pk":49193,"title":"A Bayesian Model of Mind Reading from Decisions and Emotions in Social Dilemmas","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Humans can effectively infer others' mental states, predict their behavior, and adapt their own level of cooperation accordingly in social dilemmas. However, the computational mechanisms underlying this ability remain unclear. While previous research has shown that people use both actions and emotional expressions as social cues, how these different signals are integrated during social inference has not been formally modeled. Here we propose a Bayesian framework that explains how people infer others' Social Value Orientation (SVO) from their decisions and emotional expressions in the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. Our model formalizes this inference process through two key mechanisms: (1) rational decision-making based on utility transformation according to SVO, and (2) emotional expressions driven by outcome appraisals. We tested our model against empirical data from an existing study involving 711 participants and found that it captured both their reputation judgments and cooperation predictions. These results suggest that people may employ Bayesian inference to integrate behavioral and emotional signals when predicting others' cooperative tendencies.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[],"section":"Papers with Oral Presentation","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/12f7f7f8","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Kazunori","middle_name":"","last_name":"Terada","name_suffix":"","institution":"Gifu University","department":""},{"first_name":"Celso M.","middle_name":"M","last_name":"de Melo","name_suffix":"","institution":"US Army Research Laboratory","department":""},{"first_name":"Francisco C.","middle_name":"","last_name":"Santos","name_suffix":"","institution":"Universidade de Lisboa","department":""},{"first_name":"Jonathan","middle_name":"","last_name":"Gratch","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Southern California","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2025-01-01T13:00:00-05:00","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/49193/galley/37154/download/"},{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/49193/galley/38699/download/"}]}