{"pk":49363,"title":"Industry Influencing Collective Scientific Reasoning: A Bayesian, Agent-based Exploration","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Recent work in Bayesian, agent-based modelling of scientific communities has employed the Bala-Goyal framework to study the mechanisms involved when industry influence applies the so-called 'Tobacco  Strategy' to undermine collective inquiry. Motivated by limitations of these models, we propose an alternative based on a recently introduced framework for normative argument exchange across networks. We implement representations of two distinct types of industry influence: `Obfuscating' influence directs inquiry to experiments with low expected value of information. `Misleading' influence filters private research and only communicates misleading signals from the world. We explored the impacts of both strategies on the polarization \\& mean error of, and flow of information through, social networks of scientists via computer simulations. We conclude that even against highly optimistic background assumptions, and in a less simplified model of inquiry and argumentation, industry influence poses a plausible threat to collective deliberation.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"Causal reasoning; Agent-based Modeling; Bayesian modeling"}],"section":"Papers with Poster Presentation","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/06t6b7v0","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Klee","middle_name":"","last_name":"Schöppl","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Groningen","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2025-01-01T18:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/49363/galley/37324/download/"}]}