{"pk":62832,"title":"Preparing Scientists, Policy-Makers, and Managers for a Fast-Forward Future","subtitle":null,"abstract":"Ecosystems in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta are changing rapidly, as are ecosystems around the world. Extreme events are becoming more frequent and thresholds are likely to be crossed more often, creating greater uncertainty about future conditions. The accelerating speed of change means that ecological systems may not remain stable long enough for scientists to understand them, much less use their research findings to inform policy and management. Faced with these challenges, those involved in science, policy, and management must adapt and change and anticipate what the ecosystems may be like in the future. We highlight several ways of looking ahead—scenario analyses, horizon scanning, expert elicitation, and dynamic planning—and suggest that recent advances in distributional ecology, disturbance ecology, resilience thinking, and our increased understanding of coupled human–natural systems may provide fresh ways of thinking about more rapid change in the future. To accelerate forward-looking science, policy, and management in the Delta, we propose that the State of California create a Delta Science Visioning Process to fully and openly assess the challenges of more rapid change to science, policy, and management and propose appropriate solutions, through legislation, if needed.","language":"en","license":{"name":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0","short_name":"CC BY 4.0","text":"Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.\n\nNo additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0"},"keywords":[{"word":"California, climate change, ecology, environmental change, Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, thresholds, uncertainty, policy, rapid change, governance"}],"section":"Policy and Program Analysis","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/40x3z74k","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Richard","middle_name":"B.","last_name":"Norgaard","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of California, Berkeley\nBerkeley, CA 94720","department":""},{"first_name":"John","middle_name":"A.","last_name":"Wiens","name_suffix":"","institution":"Colorado State University\nFort Collins, CO 80523","department":""},{"first_name":"Stephen","middle_name":"B.","last_name":"Brandt","name_suffix":"","institution":"Oregon State University\nCorvallis, OR 97331","department":""},{"first_name":"Elizabeth","middle_name":"A","last_name":"Canuel","name_suffix":"","institution":"Virginia Institute of Marine Science\nGloucester Point, VA 23062","department":""},{"first_name":"Tracy","middle_name":"K.","last_name":"Collier","name_suffix":"","institution":"Western Washington University\nBellingham, WA 98225","department":""},{"first_name":"Virginia","middle_name":"H.","last_name":"Dale","name_suffix":"","institution":"Universtiy of Tennessee\nKnoxville, TN 37996","department":""},{"first_name":"Harindra","middle_name":"J. S.","last_name":"Fernando","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of Notre Dame\nNotre Dame, IN 46556","department":""},{"first_name":"Thomas","middle_name":"L.","last_name":"Holzer","name_suffix":"","institution":"Delta Independent Science Board, Delta Stewardship Council\nSacramento, CA 95814","department":""},{"first_name":"Samuel","middle_name":"N.","last_name":"Luoma","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of California, Davis\nDavis, CA 95616","department":""},{"first_name":"Vincent","middle_name":"H.","last_name":"Resh","name_suffix":"","institution":"University of California, Berkeley\nBerkeley, CA 94720","department":""}],"date_submitted":"2021-06-02T00:51:12Z","date_accepted":"2021-06-02T00:51:12Z","date_published":"2021-06-10T07:00:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/jmie_sfews/article/62832/galley/48513/download/"}]}