{"pk":65636,"title":"Roll to Hit: Comparative Mathematical Probability in Tabletop Role-Playing Games","subtitle":null,"abstract":"This article analyzes the combat effectiveness of beginning characters in a variety of tabletop role-playing games against enemies they typically fight. We first orient the reader with the mathematical probability of critical successes and critical failures in several different tabletop game systems. For critical rolls, we examine D&D 5th Edition, Cyberpunk, Deadlands and Shadowrun. Then we compare the likelihood of a low-level combat-oriented character hitting their opponent across different systems. Our in-depth analysis includes D&D, Deadlands and Sword Chronicle. Games are rule bound systems and the random number generators selected for a TTRPG system and the parameters placed around those generators have a significant impact on the player experience. This analysis can help designers and players be more aware of their probabilities of hitting, and how these percentages change based on the gaming system that they are running. We roll out our research to highlight the dice on the table and the game system mechanics governing those dice.","language":"eng","license":{"name":"","short_name":"","text":null,"url":""},"keywords":[{"word":"TTRPG"},{"word":"combat"},{"word":"dice"},{"word":"probability"},{"word":"mathematics"},{"word":"game design"},{"word":"critical hits"},{"word":"critical failures"},{"word":"theorycrafting"}],"section":"Articles","is_remote":true,"remote_url":"https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7df2j22g","frozenauthors":[{"first_name":"Cathlena","middle_name":"","last_name":"Martin","name_suffix":"","institution":"","department":""},{"first_name":"Benton","middle_name":"","last_name":"Tyler","name_suffix":"","institution":"","department":""}],"date_submitted":null,"date_accepted":null,"date_published":"2024-12-16T09:03:00Z","render_galley":null,"galleys":[{"label":"PDF","type":"pdf","path":"https://journalpub.escholarship.org/analoggamestudies/article/65636/galley/50402/download/"}]}