Coastal groundwater is a vital freshwater source threatened by overabstraction and sea-level rise, yet global patterns of declining groundwater levels (GWLs) and susceptibility to seawater intrusion (SWI) remain poorly constrained. Here, we present the first global assessment based on in-situ observations from ~480,000 coastal monitoring locations. From 1990 to 2024, 21% of grid-cell aggregates had significant rising or falling GWL trends with magnitudes ≥0.1 m yr⁻¹ and with declines becoming more frequent in the last 9 years. More pronounced changes are observed for deeper water tables (ρs=0.63), in arid settings (ρs=0.56), and in some rural areas. SWI susceptibility is higher where seaward freshwater discharge is weak or gradients reverse landward, leaving limited hydraulic resistance to SWI. Decadal trend extrapolation suggests that these conditions mostly persist (93.4%), while 3.5% newly emerge and 3.1% stabilize (gradients strengthen seaward). The results provide global evidence for prioritizing monitoring and management of coastal groundwater at risk of salinization.
","license":{"name":"CC BY Attribution 4.0 International","short_name":"CC BY 4.0","text":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License\r\n\r\nBy exercising the Licensed Rights (defined below), You accept and agree to be bound by the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (\"Public License\"). To the extent this Public License may be interpreted as a contract, You are granted the Licensed Rights in consideration of Your acceptance of these terms and conditions, and the Licensor grants You such rights in consideration of benefits the Licensor receives from making the Licensed Material available under these terms and conditions.\r\n\r\nSection 1 – Definitions.\r\n\r\nAdapted Material means material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights that is derived from or based upon the Licensed Material and in which the Licensed Material is translated, altered, arranged, transformed, or otherwise modified in a manner requiring permission under the Copyright and Similar Rights held by the Licensor. For purposes of this Public License, where the Licensed Material is a musical work, performance, or sound recording, Adapted Material is always produced where the Licensed Material is synched in timed relation with a moving image.\r\nAdapter's License means the license You apply to Your Copyright and Similar Rights in Your contributions to Adapted Material in accordance with the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nCopyright and Similar Rights means copyright and/or similar rights closely related to copyright including, without limitation, performance, broadcast, sound recording, and Sui Generis Database Rights, without regard to how the rights are labeled or categorized. For purposes of this Public License, the rights specified in Section 2(b)(1)-(2) are not Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nEffective Technological Measures means those measures that, in the absence of proper authority, may not be circumvented under laws fulfilling obligations under Article 11 of the WIPO Copyright Treaty adopted on December 20, 1996, and/or similar international agreements.\r\nExceptions and Limitations means fair use, fair dealing, and/or any other exception or limitation to Copyright and Similar Rights that applies to Your use of the Licensed Material.\r\nLicensed Material means the artistic or literary work, database, or other material to which the Licensor applied this Public License.\r\nLicensed Rights means the rights granted to You subject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, which are limited to all Copyright and Similar Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material and that the Licensor has authority to license.\r\nLicensor means the individual(s) or entity(ies) granting rights under this Public License.\r\nShare means to provide material to the public by any means or process that requires permission under the Licensed Rights, such as reproduction, public display, public performance, distribution, dissemination, communication, or importation, and to make material available to the public including in ways that members of the public may access the material from a place and at a time individually chosen by them.\r\nSui Generis Database Rights means rights other than copyright resulting from Directive 96/9/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 1996 on the legal protection of databases, as amended and/or succeeded, as well as other essentially equivalent rights anywhere in the world.\r\nYou means the individual or entity exercising the Licensed Rights under this Public License. Your has a corresponding meaning.\r\nSection 2 – Scope.\r\n\r\nLicense grant.\r\nSubject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, the Licensor hereby grants You a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to:\r\nreproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part; and\r\nproduce, reproduce, and Share Adapted Material.\r\nExceptions and Limitations. For the avoidance of doubt, where Exceptions and Limitations apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with its terms and conditions.\r\nTerm. The term of this Public License is specified in Section 6(a).\r\nMedia and formats; technical modifications allowed. The Licensor authorizes You to exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications necessary to circumvent Effective Technological Measures. For purposes of this Public License, simply making modifications authorized by this Section 2(a)(4) never produces Adapted Material.\r\nDownstream recipients.\r\nOffer from the Licensor – Licensed Material. Every recipient of the Licensed Material automatically receives an offer from the Licensor to exercise the Licensed Rights under the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nNo downstream restrictions. You may not offer or impose any additional or different terms or conditions on, or apply any Effective Technological Measures to, the Licensed Material if doing so restricts exercise of the Licensed Rights by any recipient of the Licensed Material.\r\nNo endorsement. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be construed as permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i).\r\nOther rights.\r\n\r\nMoral rights, such as the right of integrity, are not licensed under this Public License, nor are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but not otherwise.\r\nPatent and trademark rights are not licensed under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, the Licensor waives any right to collect royalties from You for the exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties.\r\nSection 3 – License Conditions.\r\n\r\nYour exercise of the Licensed Rights is expressly made subject to the following conditions.\r\n\r\nAttribution.\r\n\r\nIf You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), You must:\r\n\r\nretain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor with the Licensed Material:\r\nidentification of the creator(s) of the Licensed Material and any others designated to receive attribution, in any reasonable manner requested by the Licensor (including by pseudonym if designated);\r\na copyright notice;\r\na notice that refers to this Public License;\r\na notice that refers to the disclaimer of warranties;\r\na URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the extent reasonably practicable;\r\nindicate if You modified the Licensed Material and retain an indication of any previous modifications; and\r\nindicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this Public License, and include the text of, or the URI or hyperlink to, this Public License.\r\nYou may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource that includes the required information.\r\nIf requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the information required by Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable.\r\nIf You Share Adapted Material You produce, the Adapter's License You apply must not prevent recipients of the Adapted Material from complying with this Public License.\r\nSection 4 – Sui Generis Database Rights.\r\n\r\nWhere the Licensed Rights include Sui Generis Database Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material:\r\n\r\nfor the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database;\r\nif You include all or a substantial portion of the database contents in a database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights, then the database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights (but not its individual contents) is Adapted Material; and\r\nYou must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nSection 5 – Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability.\r\n\r\nUnless otherwise separately undertaken by the Licensor, to the extent possible, the Licensor offers the Licensed Material as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind concerning the Licensed Material, whether express, implied, statutory, or other. This includes, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, absence of latent or other defects, accuracy, or the presence or absence of errors, whether or not known or discoverable. Where disclaimers of warranties are not allowed in full or in part, this disclaimer may not apply to You.\r\nTo the extent possible, in no event will the Licensor be liable to You on any legal theory (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise for any direct, special, indirect, incidental, consequential, punitive, exemplary, or other losses, costs, expenses, or damages arising out of this Public License or use of the Licensed Material, even if the Licensor has been advised of the possibility of such losses, costs, expenses, or damages. Where a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part, this limitation may not apply to You.\r\nThe disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability.\r\nSection 6 – Term and Termination.\r\n\r\nThis Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License terminate automatically.\r\nWhere Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under Section 6(a), it reinstates:\r\n\r\nautomatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided it is cured within 30 days of Your discovery of the violation; or\r\nupon express reinstatement by the Licensor.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 6(b) does not affect any right the Licensor may have to seek remedies for Your violations of this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the Licensed Material under separate terms or conditions or stop distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so will not terminate this Public License.\r\nSections 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 survive termination of this Public License.\r\nSection 7 – Other Terms and Conditions.\r\n\r\nThe Licensor shall not be bound by any additional or different terms or conditions communicated by You unless expressly agreed.\r\nAny arrangements, understandings, or agreements regarding the Licensed Material not stated herein are separate from and independent of the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nSection 8 – Interpretation.\r\n\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Public License does not, and shall not be interpreted to, reduce, limit, restrict, or impose conditions on any use of the Licensed Material that could lawfully be made without permission under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, if any provision of this Public License is deemed unenforceable, it shall be automatically reformed to the minimum extent necessary to make it enforceable. If the provision cannot be reformed, it shall be severed from this Public License without affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and conditions.\r\nNo term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the Licensor.\r\nNothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode"},"keywords":[],"date_submitted":"2025-09-15T12:12:41.420000+02:00","date_accepted":"2025-09-17T16:43:51.434000+02:00","date_published":"2025-09-17T16:43:00+02:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-026-00619-8","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X55457","authors":[{"pk":120207,"first_name":"Annika","middle_name":"","last_name":"Nolte","salutation":"Ms","orcid":null},{"pk":120279,"first_name":"Steffen","middle_name":"","last_name":"Bender","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":120280,"first_name":"Jens","middle_name":"","last_name":"Hartmann","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":120281,"first_name":"Stefan","middle_name":"","last_name":"Baltruschat","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":89469,"first_name":"Nils","middle_name":"","last_name":"Moosdorf","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":105751,"first_name":"Robert","middle_name":"","last_name":"Reinecke","salutation":"","orcid":null}],"subject":[{"name":"Earth Sciences"},{"name":"Hydrology"},{"name":"Physical Sciences and Mathematics"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"Manuscript_Nolte_et_al.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10232/download/18908/"},{"original_filename":"Manuscript_Nolte_et_al.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10232/download/18909/"},{"original_filename":"Nolte-et-al_EarthArXiv.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10232/download/20786/"},{"original_filename":"Nolte-et-al_EarthArXiv.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10232/download/20787/"},{"original_filename":"Nolte-et-al_EarthArXiv.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10232/download/20788/"},{"original_filename":"Nolte-et-al_EarthArXiv.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10232/download/22176/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":8573,"title":"Quantifying the contributions of climate change and adaptation to mortality from unprecedented extreme heat events","abstract":"Understanding the mortality effects of the most extreme heat events is central to climate change risk analysis and adaptation decision-making. Accurate representation of these impacts requires accounting for the effects of prolonged sequences of hot days on mortality, the change in that mortality due to anthropogenic forcing, and the potential compensating effects of adaptation to heat. Here, we revisit the August 2003 heat wave in France, a canonical event in a region with rich climate and mortality data, to understand these influences. We find that standard heat mortality exposure-response functions underpredict excess deaths in August 2003 by 55%, but that accounting for the temporally compounding effects of hot days better matches observed mortality. After accounting for compounding effects and applying a machine learning approach to single-event climate attribution, we attribute 6,079 deaths in August 2003 to climate change, ten times higher than previous estimates. Finally, we show that recent adaptation to heat has reduced the projected death tolls of future 2003-like events by more than 75%.
","license":{"name":"CC BY Attribution 4.0 International","short_name":"CC BY 4.0","text":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License\r\n\r\nBy exercising the Licensed Rights (defined below), You accept and agree to be bound by the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (\"Public License\"). To the extent this Public License may be interpreted as a contract, You are granted the Licensed Rights in consideration of Your acceptance of these terms and conditions, and the Licensor grants You such rights in consideration of benefits the Licensor receives from making the Licensed Material available under these terms and conditions.\r\n\r\nSection 1 – Definitions.\r\n\r\nAdapted Material means material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights that is derived from or based upon the Licensed Material and in which the Licensed Material is translated, altered, arranged, transformed, or otherwise modified in a manner requiring permission under the Copyright and Similar Rights held by the Licensor. For purposes of this Public License, where the Licensed Material is a musical work, performance, or sound recording, Adapted Material is always produced where the Licensed Material is synched in timed relation with a moving image.\r\nAdapter's License means the license You apply to Your Copyright and Similar Rights in Your contributions to Adapted Material in accordance with the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nCopyright and Similar Rights means copyright and/or similar rights closely related to copyright including, without limitation, performance, broadcast, sound recording, and Sui Generis Database Rights, without regard to how the rights are labeled or categorized. For purposes of this Public License, the rights specified in Section 2(b)(1)-(2) are not Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nEffective Technological Measures means those measures that, in the absence of proper authority, may not be circumvented under laws fulfilling obligations under Article 11 of the WIPO Copyright Treaty adopted on December 20, 1996, and/or similar international agreements.\r\nExceptions and Limitations means fair use, fair dealing, and/or any other exception or limitation to Copyright and Similar Rights that applies to Your use of the Licensed Material.\r\nLicensed Material means the artistic or literary work, database, or other material to which the Licensor applied this Public License.\r\nLicensed Rights means the rights granted to You subject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, which are limited to all Copyright and Similar Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material and that the Licensor has authority to license.\r\nLicensor means the individual(s) or entity(ies) granting rights under this Public License.\r\nShare means to provide material to the public by any means or process that requires permission under the Licensed Rights, such as reproduction, public display, public performance, distribution, dissemination, communication, or importation, and to make material available to the public including in ways that members of the public may access the material from a place and at a time individually chosen by them.\r\nSui Generis Database Rights means rights other than copyright resulting from Directive 96/9/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 1996 on the legal protection of databases, as amended and/or succeeded, as well as other essentially equivalent rights anywhere in the world.\r\nYou means the individual or entity exercising the Licensed Rights under this Public License. Your has a corresponding meaning.\r\nSection 2 – Scope.\r\n\r\nLicense grant.\r\nSubject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, the Licensor hereby grants You a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to:\r\nreproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part; and\r\nproduce, reproduce, and Share Adapted Material.\r\nExceptions and Limitations. For the avoidance of doubt, where Exceptions and Limitations apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with its terms and conditions.\r\nTerm. The term of this Public License is specified in Section 6(a).\r\nMedia and formats; technical modifications allowed. The Licensor authorizes You to exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications necessary to circumvent Effective Technological Measures. For purposes of this Public License, simply making modifications authorized by this Section 2(a)(4) never produces Adapted Material.\r\nDownstream recipients.\r\nOffer from the Licensor – Licensed Material. Every recipient of the Licensed Material automatically receives an offer from the Licensor to exercise the Licensed Rights under the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nNo downstream restrictions. You may not offer or impose any additional or different terms or conditions on, or apply any Effective Technological Measures to, the Licensed Material if doing so restricts exercise of the Licensed Rights by any recipient of the Licensed Material.\r\nNo endorsement. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be construed as permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i).\r\nOther rights.\r\n\r\nMoral rights, such as the right of integrity, are not licensed under this Public License, nor are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but not otherwise.\r\nPatent and trademark rights are not licensed under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, the Licensor waives any right to collect royalties from You for the exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties.\r\nSection 3 – License Conditions.\r\n\r\nYour exercise of the Licensed Rights is expressly made subject to the following conditions.\r\n\r\nAttribution.\r\n\r\nIf You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), You must:\r\n\r\nretain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor with the Licensed Material:\r\nidentification of the creator(s) of the Licensed Material and any others designated to receive attribution, in any reasonable manner requested by the Licensor (including by pseudonym if designated);\r\na copyright notice;\r\na notice that refers to this Public License;\r\na notice that refers to the disclaimer of warranties;\r\na URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the extent reasonably practicable;\r\nindicate if You modified the Licensed Material and retain an indication of any previous modifications; and\r\nindicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this Public License, and include the text of, or the URI or hyperlink to, this Public License.\r\nYou may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource that includes the required information.\r\nIf requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the information required by Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable.\r\nIf You Share Adapted Material You produce, the Adapter's License You apply must not prevent recipients of the Adapted Material from complying with this Public License.\r\nSection 4 – Sui Generis Database Rights.\r\n\r\nWhere the Licensed Rights include Sui Generis Database Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material:\r\n\r\nfor the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database;\r\nif You include all or a substantial portion of the database contents in a database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights, then the database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights (but not its individual contents) is Adapted Material; and\r\nYou must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nSection 5 – Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability.\r\n\r\nUnless otherwise separately undertaken by the Licensor, to the extent possible, the Licensor offers the Licensed Material as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind concerning the Licensed Material, whether express, implied, statutory, or other. This includes, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, absence of latent or other defects, accuracy, or the presence or absence of errors, whether or not known or discoverable. Where disclaimers of warranties are not allowed in full or in part, this disclaimer may not apply to You.\r\nTo the extent possible, in no event will the Licensor be liable to You on any legal theory (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise for any direct, special, indirect, incidental, consequential, punitive, exemplary, or other losses, costs, expenses, or damages arising out of this Public License or use of the Licensed Material, even if the Licensor has been advised of the possibility of such losses, costs, expenses, or damages. Where a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part, this limitation may not apply to You.\r\nThe disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability.\r\nSection 6 – Term and Termination.\r\n\r\nThis Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License terminate automatically.\r\nWhere Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under Section 6(a), it reinstates:\r\n\r\nautomatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided it is cured within 30 days of Your discovery of the violation; or\r\nupon express reinstatement by the Licensor.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 6(b) does not affect any right the Licensor may have to seek remedies for Your violations of this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the Licensed Material under separate terms or conditions or stop distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so will not terminate this Public License.\r\nSections 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 survive termination of this Public License.\r\nSection 7 – Other Terms and Conditions.\r\n\r\nThe Licensor shall not be bound by any additional or different terms or conditions communicated by You unless expressly agreed.\r\nAny arrangements, understandings, or agreements regarding the Licensed Material not stated herein are separate from and independent of the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nSection 8 – Interpretation.\r\n\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Public License does not, and shall not be interpreted to, reduce, limit, restrict, or impose conditions on any use of the Licensed Material that could lawfully be made without permission under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, if any provision of this Public License is deemed unenforceable, it shall be automatically reformed to the minimum extent necessary to make it enforceable. If the provision cannot be reformed, it shall be severed from this Public License without affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and conditions.\r\nNo term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the Licensor.\r\nNothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode"},"keywords":[{"word":"Climate attribution"},{"word":"health impacts"},{"word":"extreme heat"}],"date_submitted":"2025-02-15T17:59:51.335000+01:00","date_accepted":"2025-02-15T18:59:10.463000+01:00","date_published":"2025-02-15T10:59:00+01:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2503577122","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X51X5X","authors":[{"pk":4052,"first_name":"Christopher","middle_name":"","last_name":"Callahan","salutation":"Mr","orcid":null},{"pk":95272,"first_name":"Jared","middle_name":"","last_name":"Trok","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":93634,"first_name":"Andrew","middle_name":"","last_name":"Wilson","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":47702,"first_name":"Carlos","middle_name":"","last_name":"Gould","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":5757,"first_name":"Sam","middle_name":"","last_name":"Heft-Neal","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":5254,"first_name":"Marshall","middle_name":"","last_name":"Burke","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":16616,"first_name":"Noah","middle_name":"S","last_name":"Diffenbaugh","salutation":"","orcid":null}],"subject":[{"name":"Environmental Sciences"},{"name":"Physical Sciences and Mathematics"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"France_Mortality_EarthArXiv.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/8573/download/16027/"},{"original_filename":"Callahan-et-al-Resubmission-EarthArXiv.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/8573/download/18602/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":9582,"title":"Satellite Remote Sensing-Based Crop Cover Classification over Europe: Accuracy of Different Methodological Approaches","abstract":"Crop maps play an important role in a variety of applications, from calculating crop areas and forecasting food production quantities to the analysis of agri-environmental interactions, highlighting the necessity of timely and accurate information on agricultural land use. The availability of remote sensing data has permitted numerous crop classification studies, which have investigated a variety of methods to improve classification performance, such as the selection of remote sensing sources, classification algorithms, and preprocessing methods. This paper compares these approaches with respect to classification accuracy in a European context. The study also investigates aspects such as classification level, study area division, and class granularity. The review shows that optical products provide more information for crop identification than radar products, however, combining optical data with radar backscatter increases accuracy. Classification accuracy benefits from specific features such as red-edge and spectral indices for optical products and Haralik textures for radar. Compared to traditional machine learning and distance-based classification methods, deep learning algorithms have been shown to achieve superior performance. Nevertheless, random forest's comparative accuracy at relatively low computational cost makes it a viable alternative for large-scale applications. Finally, preprocessing methods and data on topography, climate, and crop growth patterns appear to improve accuracy.","license":{"name":"No Creative Commons license","short_name":"No CC license","text":"This option allows you to opt out of adding a Creative Commons license to your submission.","url":"https://escholarship.org"},"keywords":[{"word":"Crop Mapping"},{"word":" classification accuracy"},{"word":" Supervised Classification"},{"word":" meta-analysis"},{"word":" Preprocessing"},{"word":" Postprocessing"},{"word":"Classification Accuracy"},{"word":"supervised classification"},{"word":"meta-analysis"},{"word":"Preprocessing"},{"word":"Postprocessing"}],"date_submitted":"2025-07-04T14:04:45.603000+02:00","date_accepted":"2025-07-04T16:14:34.928000+02:00","date_published":"2025-07-04T16:14:00+02:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2025.2565837","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X54F1H","authors":[{"pk":111148,"first_name":"Elif","middle_name":"","last_name":"Dönmez","salutation":"Ms","orcid":"0000-0002-5683-6750"},{"pk":111149,"first_name":"Thomas","middle_name":"","last_name":"Heckelei","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":111150,"first_name":"Hugo","middle_name":"","last_name":"Storm","salutation":"","orcid":null}],"subject":[{"name":"Agriculture"},{"name":"Earth Sciences"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"full text _ preprint.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/9582/download/17852/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":7657,"title":"Envisioning nature positive futures for Europe: Inspiring transformative change at the biodiversity nexus","abstract":"Transformative change is required to secure a liveable future for people and nature. The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool to facilitate the creation of plural visions of nature positive futures that help build shared motivation for transformative change. Integrating nexus approaches with the NFF leverages the foundational role of biodiversity in supporting desirable outcomes across sectors and scales (i.e., the biodiversity nexus). In this paper, we bring these areas of biodiversity research together by co-creating plural visions of nature futures for Europe that make positive synergies within the biodiversity nexus explicit and consider transformative changes to the state of indirect drivers that enable them. In doing so, we aim to reflect upon methodological insights for future applications of the NFF. Nature futures for Europe were co-created with 26 participants representing diverse sectors and regions in Europe, resulting in three visions underpinned by different value perspectives: Dòigh Nàdair: The way of nature (Nature as Culture), NaturAll (Nature for Nature), and Return to Nature (Nature for Society). Subsequent analyses and a webinar enriched the narratives with possibilities for more synergistic nexus interactions. The findings highlight how plural visioning processes can generate distinct visions with positive nexus synergies enabled by unique indirect drivers. Yet, the resulting visions also share common features with overlapping value perspectives that evolved through the process. The methodological advances reveal how explicit consideration of the biodiversity nexus can mitigate unintended trade-offs between diverse values of biodiversity and increase the overall ambition of biodiversity outcomes. ","license":{"name":"CC BY Attribution 4.0 International","short_name":"CC BY 4.0","text":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License\r\n\r\nBy exercising the Licensed Rights (defined below), You accept and agree to be bound by the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (\"Public License\"). To the extent this Public License may be interpreted as a contract, You are granted the Licensed Rights in consideration of Your acceptance of these terms and conditions, and the Licensor grants You such rights in consideration of benefits the Licensor receives from making the Licensed Material available under these terms and conditions.\r\n\r\nSection 1 – Definitions.\r\n\r\nAdapted Material means material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights that is derived from or based upon the Licensed Material and in which the Licensed Material is translated, altered, arranged, transformed, or otherwise modified in a manner requiring permission under the Copyright and Similar Rights held by the Licensor. For purposes of this Public License, where the Licensed Material is a musical work, performance, or sound recording, Adapted Material is always produced where the Licensed Material is synched in timed relation with a moving image.\r\nAdapter's License means the license You apply to Your Copyright and Similar Rights in Your contributions to Adapted Material in accordance with the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nCopyright and Similar Rights means copyright and/or similar rights closely related to copyright including, without limitation, performance, broadcast, sound recording, and Sui Generis Database Rights, without regard to how the rights are labeled or categorized. For purposes of this Public License, the rights specified in Section 2(b)(1)-(2) are not Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nEffective Technological Measures means those measures that, in the absence of proper authority, may not be circumvented under laws fulfilling obligations under Article 11 of the WIPO Copyright Treaty adopted on December 20, 1996, and/or similar international agreements.\r\nExceptions and Limitations means fair use, fair dealing, and/or any other exception or limitation to Copyright and Similar Rights that applies to Your use of the Licensed Material.\r\nLicensed Material means the artistic or literary work, database, or other material to which the Licensor applied this Public License.\r\nLicensed Rights means the rights granted to You subject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, which are limited to all Copyright and Similar Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material and that the Licensor has authority to license.\r\nLicensor means the individual(s) or entity(ies) granting rights under this Public License.\r\nShare means to provide material to the public by any means or process that requires permission under the Licensed Rights, such as reproduction, public display, public performance, distribution, dissemination, communication, or importation, and to make material available to the public including in ways that members of the public may access the material from a place and at a time individually chosen by them.\r\nSui Generis Database Rights means rights other than copyright resulting from Directive 96/9/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 1996 on the legal protection of databases, as amended and/or succeeded, as well as other essentially equivalent rights anywhere in the world.\r\nYou means the individual or entity exercising the Licensed Rights under this Public License. Your has a corresponding meaning.\r\nSection 2 – Scope.\r\n\r\nLicense grant.\r\nSubject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, the Licensor hereby grants You a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to:\r\nreproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part; and\r\nproduce, reproduce, and Share Adapted Material.\r\nExceptions and Limitations. For the avoidance of doubt, where Exceptions and Limitations apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with its terms and conditions.\r\nTerm. The term of this Public License is specified in Section 6(a).\r\nMedia and formats; technical modifications allowed. The Licensor authorizes You to exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications necessary to circumvent Effective Technological Measures. For purposes of this Public License, simply making modifications authorized by this Section 2(a)(4) never produces Adapted Material.\r\nDownstream recipients.\r\nOffer from the Licensor – Licensed Material. Every recipient of the Licensed Material automatically receives an offer from the Licensor to exercise the Licensed Rights under the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nNo downstream restrictions. You may not offer or impose any additional or different terms or conditions on, or apply any Effective Technological Measures to, the Licensed Material if doing so restricts exercise of the Licensed Rights by any recipient of the Licensed Material.\r\nNo endorsement. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be construed as permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i).\r\nOther rights.\r\n\r\nMoral rights, such as the right of integrity, are not licensed under this Public License, nor are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but not otherwise.\r\nPatent and trademark rights are not licensed under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, the Licensor waives any right to collect royalties from You for the exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties.\r\nSection 3 – License Conditions.\r\n\r\nYour exercise of the Licensed Rights is expressly made subject to the following conditions.\r\n\r\nAttribution.\r\n\r\nIf You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), You must:\r\n\r\nretain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor with the Licensed Material:\r\nidentification of the creator(s) of the Licensed Material and any others designated to receive attribution, in any reasonable manner requested by the Licensor (including by pseudonym if designated);\r\na copyright notice;\r\na notice that refers to this Public License;\r\na notice that refers to the disclaimer of warranties;\r\na URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the extent reasonably practicable;\r\nindicate if You modified the Licensed Material and retain an indication of any previous modifications; and\r\nindicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this Public License, and include the text of, or the URI or hyperlink to, this Public License.\r\nYou may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource that includes the required information.\r\nIf requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the information required by Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable.\r\nIf You Share Adapted Material You produce, the Adapter's License You apply must not prevent recipients of the Adapted Material from complying with this Public License.\r\nSection 4 – Sui Generis Database Rights.\r\n\r\nWhere the Licensed Rights include Sui Generis Database Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material:\r\n\r\nfor the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database;\r\nif You include all or a substantial portion of the database contents in a database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights, then the database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights (but not its individual contents) is Adapted Material; and\r\nYou must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nSection 5 – Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability.\r\n\r\nUnless otherwise separately undertaken by the Licensor, to the extent possible, the Licensor offers the Licensed Material as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind concerning the Licensed Material, whether express, implied, statutory, or other. This includes, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, absence of latent or other defects, accuracy, or the presence or absence of errors, whether or not known or discoverable. Where disclaimers of warranties are not allowed in full or in part, this disclaimer may not apply to You.\r\nTo the extent possible, in no event will the Licensor be liable to You on any legal theory (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise for any direct, special, indirect, incidental, consequential, punitive, exemplary, or other losses, costs, expenses, or damages arising out of this Public License or use of the Licensed Material, even if the Licensor has been advised of the possibility of such losses, costs, expenses, or damages. Where a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part, this limitation may not apply to You.\r\nThe disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability.\r\nSection 6 – Term and Termination.\r\n\r\nThis Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License terminate automatically.\r\nWhere Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under Section 6(a), it reinstates:\r\n\r\nautomatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided it is cured within 30 days of Your discovery of the violation; or\r\nupon express reinstatement by the Licensor.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 6(b) does not affect any right the Licensor may have to seek remedies for Your violations of this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the Licensed Material under separate terms or conditions or stop distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so will not terminate this Public License.\r\nSections 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 survive termination of this Public License.\r\nSection 7 – Other Terms and Conditions.\r\n\r\nThe Licensor shall not be bound by any additional or different terms or conditions communicated by You unless expressly agreed.\r\nAny arrangements, understandings, or agreements regarding the Licensed Material not stated herein are separate from and independent of the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nSection 8 – Interpretation.\r\n\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Public License does not, and shall not be interpreted to, reduce, limit, restrict, or impose conditions on any use of the Licensed Material that could lawfully be made without permission under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, if any provision of this Public License is deemed unenforceable, it shall be automatically reformed to the minimum extent necessary to make it enforceable. If the provision cannot be reformed, it shall be severed from this Public License without affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and conditions.\r\nNo term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the Licensor.\r\nNothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode"},"keywords":[{"word":"transformative change"},{"word":"Nature Futures Framework"},{"word":"biodiversity nexus"},{"word":"IPBES"},{"word":"plurality"},{"word":"nature values"},{"word":"visions"}],"date_submitted":"2024-09-06T14:54:03.565000+02:00","date_accepted":"2024-09-07T00:47:58.773000+02:00","date_published":"2024-09-06T17:47:00+02:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2025.2561107","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X57Q5Q","authors":[{"pk":86084,"first_name":"Anita","middle_name":"","last_name":"Lazurko","salutation":"Dr","orcid":"0000-0003-3313-4091"},{"pk":86085,"first_name":"Mara","middle_name":"","last_name":"de Pater","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":25938,"first_name":"HyeJin","middle_name":"","last_name":"Kim","salutation":"Dr","orcid":null},{"pk":21869,"first_name":"Aniek","middle_name":"","last_name":"Hebinck","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":86086,"first_name":"Robbert","middle_name":"","last_name":"Biesbroek","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":86087,"first_name":"Fabrice","middle_name":"","last_name":"DeClerck","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":86088,"first_name":"Seweryn","middle_name":"","last_name":"Krupnik","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":86089,"first_name":"Tomasz","middle_name":"","last_name":"Okruszko","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":86090,"first_name":"Laura","middle_name":"M","last_name":"Pereira","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":86091,"first_name":"Antonia","middle_name":"","last_name":"Proka","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":86092,"first_name":"Eirini","middle_name":"","last_name":"Sakellari","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":33414,"first_name":"Paula","middle_name":"","last_name":"Harrison","salutation":"","orcid":null}],"subject":[{"name":"Social and Behavioral Sciences"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"BIONEXT NFF visions_manuscript_Final Draft for Submission_FINAL.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/7657/download/14546/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":10146,"title":"Amplified agricultural impacts from more frequent and intense sequential heat events","abstract":"As the climate warms, interacting weather extremes such as sequential heat events pose complex risks to societies. Regarding global agriculture, laboratory experiments suggest that early crop exposure to heat may either confer tolerance or enhance vulnerability to subsequent heat during the critical crop flowering stage. We show that warm early-seasons improve crop yield potential, particularly for soybean and maize, but also increase the impacts of subsequent heat by 5% to 55% compared to years with average early-season temperatures. The impacts of this increased yield sensitivity outweigh the benefits of early season heat when mid-season temperature anomalies exceed 0.7–5°C (depending on the crop). Analyzing projected temperatures under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0, we find a tenfold increase in the likelihood of experiencing sequential heat in early and mid-season crop growth stages, defined as a joint 90th percentile event. Accounting for the interactive effects of early and mid-season warming increases projected temperature-related crop yield losses by 2–44%, depending on crop and region. These results underline the emerging nonlinear risks from sequential heat extremes to food systems, which can largely be avoided when limiting warming to 1.5°C globally.","license":{"name":"No Creative Commons license","short_name":"No CC license","text":"This option allows you to opt out of adding a Creative Commons license to your submission.","url":"https://escholarship.org"},"keywords":[{"word":"compound events"},{"word":"Food production"},{"word":"Heat Extremes"},{"word":"climate change"}],"date_submitted":"2025-09-05T13:04:32.048000+02:00","date_accepted":"2025-09-06T15:03:58.724000+02:00","date_published":"2025-09-06T15:03:00+02:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae06b8","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X5NB2H","authors":[{"pk":110578,"first_name":"Raed","middle_name":"","last_name":"Hamed","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":24999,"first_name":"Carmen","middle_name":"B.","last_name":"Steinmann","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":119387,"first_name":"Qiyun","middle_name":"","last_name":"Ma","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":119388,"first_name":"Daniel","middle_name":"","last_name":"Balanzategui","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":119389,"first_name":"Ellie","middle_name":"","last_name":"Broadman","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":94368,"first_name":"Corey","middle_name":"","last_name":"Lesk","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":3615,"first_name":"Kai","middle_name":"","last_name":"Kornhuber","salutation":"","orcid":"0000-0001-5466-2059"}],"subject":[{"name":"Agriculture"},{"name":"Climate"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"sequential_heat_ERL_preprint.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10146/download/18765/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":9728,"title":"Air quality impacts of electricity purchase and air travel by organizations","abstract":"Organizational climate actions often prioritize greenhouse gas reductions without considering other impacts such as improved air quality from reduced fossil fuel use. While air quality benefits of large-scale policies are well studied, those of organization-level activities are more uncertain. We quantify the impact of organizations' fossil fuel use from electricity purchasing and air travel on climate and air quality using a system-level approach, with data from two universities and one corporation based in greater Boston. We use energy system and aviation emission models to estimate marginal emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollution precursors, and compare monetized air quality impacts calculated using an atmospheric chemistry-transport model with climate impacts from the same activities. Organizational activities were associated with air quality damages of ~$88/tCO2 (electricity purchase) and ~$265/tCO2 (air travel), compared to ~$170–200/tCO\\2 in climate damages (2015 USD). Air quality impacts vary spatially, with renewable energy purchases and short-haul flight segments having proportionally more impacts in the US Northeast. Activities with the same CO2 emissions can have very different overall monetized benefits, suggesting organizations seeking broader sustainability impacts should consider air quality alongside direct climate impacts.","license":{"name":"CC BY Attribution 4.0 International","short_name":"CC BY 4.0","text":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License\r\n\r\nBy exercising the Licensed Rights (defined below), You accept and agree to be bound by the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (\"Public License\"). To the extent this Public License may be interpreted as a contract, You are granted the Licensed Rights in consideration of Your acceptance of these terms and conditions, and the Licensor grants You such rights in consideration of benefits the Licensor receives from making the Licensed Material available under these terms and conditions.\r\n\r\nSection 1 – Definitions.\r\n\r\nAdapted Material means material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights that is derived from or based upon the Licensed Material and in which the Licensed Material is translated, altered, arranged, transformed, or otherwise modified in a manner requiring permission under the Copyright and Similar Rights held by the Licensor. For purposes of this Public License, where the Licensed Material is a musical work, performance, or sound recording, Adapted Material is always produced where the Licensed Material is synched in timed relation with a moving image.\r\nAdapter's License means the license You apply to Your Copyright and Similar Rights in Your contributions to Adapted Material in accordance with the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nCopyright and Similar Rights means copyright and/or similar rights closely related to copyright including, without limitation, performance, broadcast, sound recording, and Sui Generis Database Rights, without regard to how the rights are labeled or categorized. For purposes of this Public License, the rights specified in Section 2(b)(1)-(2) are not Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nEffective Technological Measures means those measures that, in the absence of proper authority, may not be circumvented under laws fulfilling obligations under Article 11 of the WIPO Copyright Treaty adopted on December 20, 1996, and/or similar international agreements.\r\nExceptions and Limitations means fair use, fair dealing, and/or any other exception or limitation to Copyright and Similar Rights that applies to Your use of the Licensed Material.\r\nLicensed Material means the artistic or literary work, database, or other material to which the Licensor applied this Public License.\r\nLicensed Rights means the rights granted to You subject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, which are limited to all Copyright and Similar Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material and that the Licensor has authority to license.\r\nLicensor means the individual(s) or entity(ies) granting rights under this Public License.\r\nShare means to provide material to the public by any means or process that requires permission under the Licensed Rights, such as reproduction, public display, public performance, distribution, dissemination, communication, or importation, and to make material available to the public including in ways that members of the public may access the material from a place and at a time individually chosen by them.\r\nSui Generis Database Rights means rights other than copyright resulting from Directive 96/9/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 1996 on the legal protection of databases, as amended and/or succeeded, as well as other essentially equivalent rights anywhere in the world.\r\nYou means the individual or entity exercising the Licensed Rights under this Public License. Your has a corresponding meaning.\r\nSection 2 – Scope.\r\n\r\nLicense grant.\r\nSubject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, the Licensor hereby grants You a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to:\r\nreproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part; and\r\nproduce, reproduce, and Share Adapted Material.\r\nExceptions and Limitations. For the avoidance of doubt, where Exceptions and Limitations apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with its terms and conditions.\r\nTerm. The term of this Public License is specified in Section 6(a).\r\nMedia and formats; technical modifications allowed. The Licensor authorizes You to exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications necessary to circumvent Effective Technological Measures. For purposes of this Public License, simply making modifications authorized by this Section 2(a)(4) never produces Adapted Material.\r\nDownstream recipients.\r\nOffer from the Licensor – Licensed Material. Every recipient of the Licensed Material automatically receives an offer from the Licensor to exercise the Licensed Rights under the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nNo downstream restrictions. You may not offer or impose any additional or different terms or conditions on, or apply any Effective Technological Measures to, the Licensed Material if doing so restricts exercise of the Licensed Rights by any recipient of the Licensed Material.\r\nNo endorsement. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be construed as permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i).\r\nOther rights.\r\n\r\nMoral rights, such as the right of integrity, are not licensed under this Public License, nor are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but not otherwise.\r\nPatent and trademark rights are not licensed under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, the Licensor waives any right to collect royalties from You for the exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties.\r\nSection 3 – License Conditions.\r\n\r\nYour exercise of the Licensed Rights is expressly made subject to the following conditions.\r\n\r\nAttribution.\r\n\r\nIf You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), You must:\r\n\r\nretain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor with the Licensed Material:\r\nidentification of the creator(s) of the Licensed Material and any others designated to receive attribution, in any reasonable manner requested by the Licensor (including by pseudonym if designated);\r\na copyright notice;\r\na notice that refers to this Public License;\r\na notice that refers to the disclaimer of warranties;\r\na URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the extent reasonably practicable;\r\nindicate if You modified the Licensed Material and retain an indication of any previous modifications; and\r\nindicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this Public License, and include the text of, or the URI or hyperlink to, this Public License.\r\nYou may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource that includes the required information.\r\nIf requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the information required by Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable.\r\nIf You Share Adapted Material You produce, the Adapter's License You apply must not prevent recipients of the Adapted Material from complying with this Public License.\r\nSection 4 – Sui Generis Database Rights.\r\n\r\nWhere the Licensed Rights include Sui Generis Database Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material:\r\n\r\nfor the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database;\r\nif You include all or a substantial portion of the database contents in a database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights, then the database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights (but not its individual contents) is Adapted Material; and\r\nYou must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nSection 5 – Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability.\r\n\r\nUnless otherwise separately undertaken by the Licensor, to the extent possible, the Licensor offers the Licensed Material as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind concerning the Licensed Material, whether express, implied, statutory, or other. This includes, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, absence of latent or other defects, accuracy, or the presence or absence of errors, whether or not known or discoverable. Where disclaimers of warranties are not allowed in full or in part, this disclaimer may not apply to You.\r\nTo the extent possible, in no event will the Licensor be liable to You on any legal theory (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise for any direct, special, indirect, incidental, consequential, punitive, exemplary, or other losses, costs, expenses, or damages arising out of this Public License or use of the Licensed Material, even if the Licensor has been advised of the possibility of such losses, costs, expenses, or damages. Where a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part, this limitation may not apply to You.\r\nThe disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability.\r\nSection 6 – Term and Termination.\r\n\r\nThis Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License terminate automatically.\r\nWhere Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under Section 6(a), it reinstates:\r\n\r\nautomatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided it is cured within 30 days of Your discovery of the violation; or\r\nupon express reinstatement by the Licensor.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 6(b) does not affect any right the Licensor may have to seek remedies for Your violations of this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the Licensed Material under separate terms or conditions or stop distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so will not terminate this Public License.\r\nSections 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 survive termination of this Public License.\r\nSection 7 – Other Terms and Conditions.\r\n\r\nThe Licensor shall not be bound by any additional or different terms or conditions communicated by You unless expressly agreed.\r\nAny arrangements, understandings, or agreements regarding the Licensed Material not stated herein are separate from and independent of the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nSection 8 – Interpretation.\r\n\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Public License does not, and shall not be interpreted to, reduce, limit, restrict, or impose conditions on any use of the Licensed Material that could lawfully be made without permission under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, if any provision of this Public License is deemed unenforceable, it shall be automatically reformed to the minimum extent necessary to make it enforceable. If the provision cannot be reformed, it shall be severed from this Public License without affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and conditions.\r\nNo term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the Licensor.\r\nNothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode"},"keywords":[{"word":"organization"},{"word":"air quality"},{"word":"decarbonization"},{"word":"Electricity purchase"},{"word":"Air travel"}],"date_submitted":"2025-07-24T17:08:30.621000+02:00","date_accepted":"2025-07-25T15:43:08.589000+02:00","date_published":"2025-07-25T15:43:00+02:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae21f9","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X50B2M","authors":[{"pk":112146,"first_name":"Yuang","middle_name":"","last_name":"Chen","salutation":"Mr","orcid":"0000-0002-5270-8495"},{"pk":46178,"first_name":"Florian","middle_name":"","last_name":"Allroggen","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":112147,"first_name":"Sebastian","middle_name":"David","last_name":"Eastham","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":112148,"first_name":"Evan","middle_name":"M","last_name":"Gibney","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":112149,"first_name":"William","middle_name":"Cummin","last_name":"Clark","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":17391,"first_name":"Noelle","middle_name":"Eckley","last_name":"Selin","salutation":"Prof.","orcid":"0000-0002-6396-5622"}],"subject":[{"name":"Atmospheric Sciences"},{"name":"Environmental Sciences"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"Manuscript.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/9728/download/18091/"},{"original_filename":"Manuscript_Chen.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/9728/download/18092/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":10582,"title":"Climate as the Primary Moderator: Towards Context-Driven Design and Implementation of Vertical Greenery Systems for Stormwater Management","abstract":"Urbanisation intensifies stormwater management challenges by expanding impervious\nsurfaces, increasing flood risk and degrading water quality. Vertical Greenery Systems\n(VGS) are increasingly promoted as nature-based solutions for space-constrained cities,\nyet their performance remains highly variable and context-dependent. This systematic\nreview, conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines and synthesising evidence from\n34 peer-reviewed studies, demonstrates that VGS hydrological efficacy is not a universal\nconstant but is fundamentally moderated by local climatic conditions. Climate acts as the\nprimary filter, shaping system function across tropical, temperate, Mediterranean, arid,\nand cold zones, each presenting distinct opportunities and constraints. Beyond climate,\nperformance is refined by system typology (green façades versus living walls), plant\nfunctional traits (notably root architecture), and substrate composition, which together\ndetermine trade-offs between runoff delay, retention, and water quality improvement.\nThe review further reveals a stark divergence in adoption barriers: in the Global North,\nhigh costs, regulatory complexity, and data gaps create institutional inertia, whereas in\nthe Global South, limited awareness, misaligned priorities, and weak policy frameworks\nrelegate stormwater management to a low priority. To address these challenges, we\npropose a five-pillar implementation framework centred on climate-responsive design\nprotocols, advanced economic valuation of co-benefits, adaptive governance, long-term\nmonitoring, and context-sensitive community engagement. This review provides actionable,\nevidence-based guidance for integrating VGS as resilient, equitable, and multifunctional\ncomponents of sustainable urban water management, tailored not to global templates, but\nto local environmental and socio-institutional realities.","license":{"name":"CC-By Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International","short_name":"CC BY-NC-ND 4.0","text":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License\r\n\r\nBy exercising the Licensed Rights (defined below), You accept and agree to be bound by the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License (\"Public License\"). To the extent this Public License may be interpreted as a contract, You are granted the Licensed Rights in consideration of Your acceptance of these terms and conditions, and the Licensor grants You such rights in consideration of benefits the Licensor receives from making the Licensed Material available under these terms and conditions.\r\n\r\nSection 1 – Definitions.\r\n\r\nAdapted Material means material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights that is derived from or based upon the Licensed Material and in which the Licensed Material is translated, altered, arranged, transformed, or otherwise modified in a manner requiring permission under the Copyright and Similar Rights held by the Licensor. For purposes of this Public License, where the Licensed Material is a musical work, performance, or sound recording, Adapted Material is always produced where the Licensed Material is synched in timed relation with a moving image.\r\nCopyright and Similar Rights means copyright and/or similar rights closely related to copyright including, without limitation, performance, broadcast, sound recording, and Sui Generis Database Rights, without regard to how the rights are labeled or categorized. For purposes of this Public License, the rights specified in Section 2(b)(1)-(2) are not Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nEffective Technological Measures means those measures that, in the absence of proper authority, may not be circumvented under laws fulfilling obligations under Article 11 of the WIPO Copyright Treaty adopted on December 20, 1996, and/or similar international agreements.\r\nExceptions and Limitations means fair use, fair dealing, and/or any other exception or limitation to Copyright and Similar Rights that applies to Your use of the Licensed Material.\r\nLicensed Material means the artistic or literary work, database, or other material to which the Licensor applied this Public License.\r\nLicensed Rights means the rights granted to You subject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, which are limited to all Copyright and Similar Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material and that the Licensor has authority to license.\r\nLicensor means the individual(s) or entity(ies) granting rights under this Public License.\r\nNonCommercial means not primarily intended for or directed towards commercial advantage or monetary compensation. For purposes of this Public License, the exchange of the Licensed Material for other material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights by digital file-sharing or similar means is NonCommercial provided there is no payment of monetary compensation in connection with the exchange.\r\nShare means to provide material to the public by any means or process that requires permission under the Licensed Rights, such as reproduction, public display, public performance, distribution, dissemination, communication, or importation, and to make material available to the public including in ways that members of the public may access the material from a place and at a time individually chosen by them.\r\nSui Generis Database Rights means rights other than copyright resulting from Directive 96/9/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 1996 on the legal protection of databases, as amended and/or succeeded, as well as other essentially equivalent rights anywhere in the world.\r\nYou means the individual or entity exercising the Licensed Rights under this Public License. Your has a corresponding meaning.\r\nSection 2 – Scope.\r\n\r\nLicense grant.\r\nSubject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, the Licensor hereby grants You a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to:\r\nreproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part, for NonCommercial purposes only; and\r\nproduce and reproduce, but not Share, Adapted Material for NonCommercial purposes only.\r\nExceptions and Limitations. For the avoidance of doubt, where Exceptions and Limitations apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with its terms and conditions.\r\nTerm. The term of this Public License is specified in Section 6(a).\r\nMedia and formats; technical modifications allowed. The Licensor authorizes You to exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications necessary to circumvent Effective Technological Measures. For purposes of this Public License, simply making modifications authorized by this Section 2(a)(4) never produces Adapted Material.\r\nDownstream recipients.\r\nOffer from the Licensor – Licensed Material. Every recipient of the Licensed Material automatically receives an offer from the Licensor to exercise the Licensed Rights under the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nNo downstream restrictions. You may not offer or impose any additional or different terms or conditions on, or apply any Effective Technological Measures to, the Licensed Material if doing so restricts exercise of the Licensed Rights by any recipient of the Licensed Material.\r\nNo endorsement. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be construed as permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i).\r\nOther rights.\r\n\r\nMoral rights, such as the right of integrity, are not licensed under this Public License, nor are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but not otherwise.\r\nPatent and trademark rights are not licensed under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, the Licensor waives any right to collect royalties from You for the exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties, including when the Licensed Material is used other than for NonCommercial purposes.\r\nSection 3 – License Conditions.\r\n\r\nYour exercise of the Licensed Rights is expressly made subject to the following conditions.\r\n\r\nAttribution.\r\n\r\nIf You Share the Licensed Material, You must:\r\n\r\nretain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor with the Licensed Material:\r\nidentification of the creator(s) of the Licensed Material and any others designated to receive attribution, in any reasonable manner requested by the Licensor (including by pseudonym if designated);\r\na copyright notice;\r\na notice that refers to this Public License;\r\na notice that refers to the disclaimer of warranties;\r\na URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the extent reasonably practicable;\r\nindicate if You modified the Licensed Material and retain an indication of any previous modifications; and\r\nindicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this Public License, and include the text of, or the URI or hyperlink to, this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, You do not have permission under this Public License to Share Adapted Material.\r\nYou may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource that includes the required information.\r\nIf requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the information required by Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable.\r\nSection 4 – Sui Generis Database Rights.\r\n\r\nWhere the Licensed Rights include Sui Generis Database Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material:\r\n\r\nfor the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database for NonCommercial purposes only and provided You do not Share Adapted Material;\r\nif You include all or a substantial portion of the database contents in a database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights, then the database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights (but not its individual contents) is Adapted Material; and\r\nYou must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nSection 5 – Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability.\r\n\r\nUnless otherwise separately undertaken by the Licensor, to the extent possible, the Licensor offers the Licensed Material as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind concerning the Licensed Material, whether express, implied, statutory, or other. This includes, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, absence of latent or other defects, accuracy, or the presence or absence of errors, whether or not known or discoverable. Where disclaimers of warranties are not allowed in full or in part, this disclaimer may not apply to You.\r\nTo the extent possible, in no event will the Licensor be liable to You on any legal theory (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise for any direct, special, indirect, incidental, consequential, punitive, exemplary, or other losses, costs, expenses, or damages arising out of this Public License or use of the Licensed Material, even if the Licensor has been advised of the possibility of such losses, costs, expenses, or damages. Where a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part, this limitation may not apply to You.\r\nThe disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability.\r\nSection 6 – Term and Termination.\r\n\r\nThis Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License terminate automatically.\r\nWhere Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under Section 6(a), it reinstates:\r\n\r\nautomatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided it is cured within 30 days of Your discovery of the violation; or\r\nupon express reinstatement by the Licensor.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 6(b) does not affect any right the Licensor may have to seek remedies for Your violations of this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the Licensed Material under separate terms or conditions or stop distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so will not terminate this Public License.\r\nSections 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 survive termination of this Public License.\r\nSection 7 – Other Terms and Conditions.\r\n\r\nThe Licensor shall not be bound by any additional or different terms or conditions communicated by You unless expressly agreed.\r\nAny arrangements, understandings, or agreements regarding the Licensed Material not stated herein are separate from and independent of the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nSection 8 – Interpretation.\r\n\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Public License does not, and shall not be interpreted to, reduce, limit, restrict, or impose conditions on any use of the Licensed Material that could lawfully be made without permission under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, if any provision of this Public License is deemed unenforceable, it shall be automatically reformed to the minimum extent necessary to make it enforceable. If the provision cannot be reformed, it shall be severed from this Public License without affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and conditions.\r\nNo term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the Licensor.\r\nNothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode"},"keywords":[{"word":"Green Walls"},{"word":"Vertical greenery systems (VGS)"},{"word":"Building Envelope"},{"word":"stormwater management"},{"word":"Green Infrastructure"}],"date_submitted":"2025-10-21T18:19:16.161000+02:00","date_accepted":"2025-10-23T17:07:21.656000+02:00","date_published":"2025-10-23T17:07:00+02:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2b86","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X5QB3H","authors":[{"pk":122149,"first_name":"Abdul Ghafoor","middle_name":"","last_name":"Nizamani","salutation":"Mr","orcid":null},{"pk":122337,"first_name":"Geir","middle_name":"","last_name":"Torgersen","salutation":"","orcid":null}],"subject":[{"name":"Civil and Environmental Engineering"},{"name":"Engineering"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"Manuscript_vgs.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10582/download/19443/"},{"original_filename":"manuscript_vgs1.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10582/download/19482/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":8504,"title":"Comprehensive Assessment of Flood Risk and Community Impact of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in Iowa","abstract":"Flooding presents a significant risk to Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs), especially in regions increasingly affected by extreme weather events. This study uses advanced geospatial analysis techniques to assess the environmental and economic vulnerabilities of 12,703 CAFOs across Iowa, United States. We focused on the exposure of CAFOS to 100-year and 500-year floodplains, integrating floodplain maps with location data operational characteristics, and livestock types (cattle, swine, poultry) to assess flood risk. The analysis also considered the size and construction year of each CAFO, offering insights into how older and larger operations are disproportionately vulnerable. The results indicate that over 1.9 million animal units (13.35% of total), are located within the 100-year floodplain. In the 500-year flood floodplain, it increases to 2.05 million animal units, representing 14.37% of the state’s total. Sioux, Lyon, and Hancock counties were identified as particularly high-risk, with over 16% of animal units in Sioux County exposed to 100-year flood risks, rising to 17.4% under the 500-year floodplain. The study reveals that larger CAFOs, particularly those constructed before 2004, are at greater risk due to their location in flood-prone areas and the challenges posed by their operational scale. These risks not only threaten livestock but also have far-reaching economic consequences, including significant operational disruptions, infrastructure damage, and cascading effects on supply chains and market stability. As extreme weather events become more frequent due to climate change, these findings highlight the need for heightened awareness of CAFO vulnerabilities and call for further research into adaptive strategies to protect Iowa’s agricultural sector.","license":{"name":"CC BY Attribution 4.0 International","short_name":"CC BY 4.0","text":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License\r\n\r\nBy exercising the Licensed Rights (defined below), You accept and agree to be bound by the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (\"Public License\"). To the extent this Public License may be interpreted as a contract, You are granted the Licensed Rights in consideration of Your acceptance of these terms and conditions, and the Licensor grants You such rights in consideration of benefits the Licensor receives from making the Licensed Material available under these terms and conditions.\r\n\r\nSection 1 – Definitions.\r\n\r\nAdapted Material means material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights that is derived from or based upon the Licensed Material and in which the Licensed Material is translated, altered, arranged, transformed, or otherwise modified in a manner requiring permission under the Copyright and Similar Rights held by the Licensor. For purposes of this Public License, where the Licensed Material is a musical work, performance, or sound recording, Adapted Material is always produced where the Licensed Material is synched in timed relation with a moving image.\r\nAdapter's License means the license You apply to Your Copyright and Similar Rights in Your contributions to Adapted Material in accordance with the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nCopyright and Similar Rights means copyright and/or similar rights closely related to copyright including, without limitation, performance, broadcast, sound recording, and Sui Generis Database Rights, without regard to how the rights are labeled or categorized. For purposes of this Public License, the rights specified in Section 2(b)(1)-(2) are not Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nEffective Technological Measures means those measures that, in the absence of proper authority, may not be circumvented under laws fulfilling obligations under Article 11 of the WIPO Copyright Treaty adopted on December 20, 1996, and/or similar international agreements.\r\nExceptions and Limitations means fair use, fair dealing, and/or any other exception or limitation to Copyright and Similar Rights that applies to Your use of the Licensed Material.\r\nLicensed Material means the artistic or literary work, database, or other material to which the Licensor applied this Public License.\r\nLicensed Rights means the rights granted to You subject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, which are limited to all Copyright and Similar Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material and that the Licensor has authority to license.\r\nLicensor means the individual(s) or entity(ies) granting rights under this Public License.\r\nShare means to provide material to the public by any means or process that requires permission under the Licensed Rights, such as reproduction, public display, public performance, distribution, dissemination, communication, or importation, and to make material available to the public including in ways that members of the public may access the material from a place and at a time individually chosen by them.\r\nSui Generis Database Rights means rights other than copyright resulting from Directive 96/9/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 1996 on the legal protection of databases, as amended and/or succeeded, as well as other essentially equivalent rights anywhere in the world.\r\nYou means the individual or entity exercising the Licensed Rights under this Public License. Your has a corresponding meaning.\r\nSection 2 – Scope.\r\n\r\nLicense grant.\r\nSubject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, the Licensor hereby grants You a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to:\r\nreproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part; and\r\nproduce, reproduce, and Share Adapted Material.\r\nExceptions and Limitations. For the avoidance of doubt, where Exceptions and Limitations apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with its terms and conditions.\r\nTerm. The term of this Public License is specified in Section 6(a).\r\nMedia and formats; technical modifications allowed. The Licensor authorizes You to exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications necessary to circumvent Effective Technological Measures. For purposes of this Public License, simply making modifications authorized by this Section 2(a)(4) never produces Adapted Material.\r\nDownstream recipients.\r\nOffer from the Licensor – Licensed Material. Every recipient of the Licensed Material automatically receives an offer from the Licensor to exercise the Licensed Rights under the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nNo downstream restrictions. You may not offer or impose any additional or different terms or conditions on, or apply any Effective Technological Measures to, the Licensed Material if doing so restricts exercise of the Licensed Rights by any recipient of the Licensed Material.\r\nNo endorsement. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be construed as permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i).\r\nOther rights.\r\n\r\nMoral rights, such as the right of integrity, are not licensed under this Public License, nor are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but not otherwise.\r\nPatent and trademark rights are not licensed under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, the Licensor waives any right to collect royalties from You for the exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties.\r\nSection 3 – License Conditions.\r\n\r\nYour exercise of the Licensed Rights is expressly made subject to the following conditions.\r\n\r\nAttribution.\r\n\r\nIf You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), You must:\r\n\r\nretain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor with the Licensed Material:\r\nidentification of the creator(s) of the Licensed Material and any others designated to receive attribution, in any reasonable manner requested by the Licensor (including by pseudonym if designated);\r\na copyright notice;\r\na notice that refers to this Public License;\r\na notice that refers to the disclaimer of warranties;\r\na URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the extent reasonably practicable;\r\nindicate if You modified the Licensed Material and retain an indication of any previous modifications; and\r\nindicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this Public License, and include the text of, or the URI or hyperlink to, this Public License.\r\nYou may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource that includes the required information.\r\nIf requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the information required by Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable.\r\nIf You Share Adapted Material You produce, the Adapter's License You apply must not prevent recipients of the Adapted Material from complying with this Public License.\r\nSection 4 – Sui Generis Database Rights.\r\n\r\nWhere the Licensed Rights include Sui Generis Database Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material:\r\n\r\nfor the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database;\r\nif You include all or a substantial portion of the database contents in a database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights, then the database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights (but not its individual contents) is Adapted Material; and\r\nYou must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nSection 5 – Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability.\r\n\r\nUnless otherwise separately undertaken by the Licensor, to the extent possible, the Licensor offers the Licensed Material as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind concerning the Licensed Material, whether express, implied, statutory, or other. This includes, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, absence of latent or other defects, accuracy, or the presence or absence of errors, whether or not known or discoverable. Where disclaimers of warranties are not allowed in full or in part, this disclaimer may not apply to You.\r\nTo the extent possible, in no event will the Licensor be liable to You on any legal theory (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise for any direct, special, indirect, incidental, consequential, punitive, exemplary, or other losses, costs, expenses, or damages arising out of this Public License or use of the Licensed Material, even if the Licensor has been advised of the possibility of such losses, costs, expenses, or damages. Where a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part, this limitation may not apply to You.\r\nThe disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability.\r\nSection 6 – Term and Termination.\r\n\r\nThis Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License terminate automatically.\r\nWhere Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under Section 6(a), it reinstates:\r\n\r\nautomatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided it is cured within 30 days of Your discovery of the violation; or\r\nupon express reinstatement by the Licensor.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 6(b) does not affect any right the Licensor may have to seek remedies for Your violations of this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the Licensed Material under separate terms or conditions or stop distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so will not terminate this Public License.\r\nSections 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 survive termination of this Public License.\r\nSection 7 – Other Terms and Conditions.\r\n\r\nThe Licensor shall not be bound by any additional or different terms or conditions communicated by You unless expressly agreed.\r\nAny arrangements, understandings, or agreements regarding the Licensed Material not stated herein are separate from and independent of the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nSection 8 – Interpretation.\r\n\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Public License does not, and shall not be interpreted to, reduce, limit, restrict, or impose conditions on any use of the Licensed Material that could lawfully be made without permission under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, if any provision of this Public License is deemed unenforceable, it shall be automatically reformed to the minimum extent necessary to make it enforceable. If the provision cannot be reformed, it shall be severed from this Public License without affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and conditions.\r\nNo term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the Licensor.\r\nNothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode"},"keywords":[{"word":"CAFO"},{"word":" flood risk assessment"},{"word":" Floodplain Vulnerability"},{"word":" geospatial analysis"},{"word":" Iowa"},{"word":" Livestock Vulnerability"},{"word":"flood risk assessment"},{"word":"Floodplain Vulnerability"},{"word":"Geospatial Analysis"},{"word":"Iowa"},{"word":"Livestock Vulnerability"}],"date_submitted":"2025-02-05T11:34:11.936000+01:00","date_accepted":"2025-02-05T16:15:51.255000+01:00","date_published":"2025-12-27T10:15:00+01:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3095","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X59H9S","authors":[{"pk":96584,"first_name":"Ugur","middle_name":"","last_name":"Satilmis","salutation":"Mr","orcid":null},{"pk":22943,"first_name":"Jerry","middle_name":"","last_name":"Mount","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":96590,"first_name":"Adem","middle_name":"","last_name":"Bayram","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":96548,"first_name":"Ibrahim","middle_name":"","last_name":"Demir","salutation":"","orcid":null}],"subject":[{"name":"Agriculture"},{"name":"Civil and Environmental Engineering"},{"name":"Civil Engineering"},{"name":"Engineering"},{"name":"Environmental Engineering"},{"name":"Hydraulic Engineering"},{"name":"Life Sciences"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"Ugur_CAFO_Analysis_EarthArxiv.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/8504/download/15914/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":10775,"title":"Targeted weather regimes identify circulation patterns behind Western European summer heat extremes and trends","abstract":"Western European heat extremes have intensified in recent decades, with their rate of warming\noutpacing the global mean. Against this general human-induced warming trend, understanding the\ncirculation patterns that drive such heat extremes is crucial. Weather-regime (WR) approaches\nhave been widely used to characterise large-scale circulation variability; however, conventional\nclassifications are not optimised to identify the dynamical drivers of extremes. Here we apply a\nnovel targeted machine learning-based approach, the regression mixture-model variational\nautoencoder (RMM-VAE), to characterise summer weather regimes relevant for Western European\ntemperatures. We compare its performance against the standard, non-targeted k-means approach\nand find RMM-VAE to yield dynamically coherent regimes while being more informative of\n(extreme) temperatures in the target region.\nOur analysis identifies a southerly-flow regime that accounts for the vast majority of heatwave\ndays, while k-means disperses them across multiple regimes. Moreover, the seasonal frequency of\nthis impact-relevant regime, combined with global mean temperature, explains a large fraction of\ninterannual variability in both mean (R² = 0.84) and extreme summer temperatures (90th\npercentile; R² = 0.65), with predictive skill persisting out-of-sample tests. Finally, this simple\nregression model allows us to attribute 34% of total summer warming in Western Europe and\nabout 70% of the observed “excess” warming (relative to the global mean) to an observed increase\nin the identified southerly flow circulation patter, which we quantify to be largely forced.\nOur results demonstrate that targeted weather regime approaches can sharpen the link between\ncirculation and surface extremes, offering attribution of regional warming. Furthermore, the\nidentified regimes provide interpretable predictors with potential for improving seasonal forecasts\nand climate risk assessments.","license":{"name":"CC BY Attribution 4.0 International","short_name":"CC BY 4.0","text":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License\r\n\r\nBy exercising the Licensed Rights (defined below), You accept and agree to be bound by the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (\"Public License\"). To the extent this Public License may be interpreted as a contract, You are granted the Licensed Rights in consideration of Your acceptance of these terms and conditions, and the Licensor grants You such rights in consideration of benefits the Licensor receives from making the Licensed Material available under these terms and conditions.\r\n\r\nSection 1 – Definitions.\r\n\r\nAdapted Material means material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights that is derived from or based upon the Licensed Material and in which the Licensed Material is translated, altered, arranged, transformed, or otherwise modified in a manner requiring permission under the Copyright and Similar Rights held by the Licensor. For purposes of this Public License, where the Licensed Material is a musical work, performance, or sound recording, Adapted Material is always produced where the Licensed Material is synched in timed relation with a moving image.\r\nAdapter's License means the license You apply to Your Copyright and Similar Rights in Your contributions to Adapted Material in accordance with the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nCopyright and Similar Rights means copyright and/or similar rights closely related to copyright including, without limitation, performance, broadcast, sound recording, and Sui Generis Database Rights, without regard to how the rights are labeled or categorized. For purposes of this Public License, the rights specified in Section 2(b)(1)-(2) are not Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nEffective Technological Measures means those measures that, in the absence of proper authority, may not be circumvented under laws fulfilling obligations under Article 11 of the WIPO Copyright Treaty adopted on December 20, 1996, and/or similar international agreements.\r\nExceptions and Limitations means fair use, fair dealing, and/or any other exception or limitation to Copyright and Similar Rights that applies to Your use of the Licensed Material.\r\nLicensed Material means the artistic or literary work, database, or other material to which the Licensor applied this Public License.\r\nLicensed Rights means the rights granted to You subject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, which are limited to all Copyright and Similar Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material and that the Licensor has authority to license.\r\nLicensor means the individual(s) or entity(ies) granting rights under this Public License.\r\nShare means to provide material to the public by any means or process that requires permission under the Licensed Rights, such as reproduction, public display, public performance, distribution, dissemination, communication, or importation, and to make material available to the public including in ways that members of the public may access the material from a place and at a time individually chosen by them.\r\nSui Generis Database Rights means rights other than copyright resulting from Directive 96/9/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 1996 on the legal protection of databases, as amended and/or succeeded, as well as other essentially equivalent rights anywhere in the world.\r\nYou means the individual or entity exercising the Licensed Rights under this Public License. Your has a corresponding meaning.\r\nSection 2 – Scope.\r\n\r\nLicense grant.\r\nSubject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, the Licensor hereby grants You a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to:\r\nreproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part; and\r\nproduce, reproduce, and Share Adapted Material.\r\nExceptions and Limitations. For the avoidance of doubt, where Exceptions and Limitations apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with its terms and conditions.\r\nTerm. The term of this Public License is specified in Section 6(a).\r\nMedia and formats; technical modifications allowed. The Licensor authorizes You to exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications necessary to circumvent Effective Technological Measures. For purposes of this Public License, simply making modifications authorized by this Section 2(a)(4) never produces Adapted Material.\r\nDownstream recipients.\r\nOffer from the Licensor – Licensed Material. Every recipient of the Licensed Material automatically receives an offer from the Licensor to exercise the Licensed Rights under the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nNo downstream restrictions. You may not offer or impose any additional or different terms or conditions on, or apply any Effective Technological Measures to, the Licensed Material if doing so restricts exercise of the Licensed Rights by any recipient of the Licensed Material.\r\nNo endorsement. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be construed as permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i).\r\nOther rights.\r\n\r\nMoral rights, such as the right of integrity, are not licensed under this Public License, nor are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but not otherwise.\r\nPatent and trademark rights are not licensed under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, the Licensor waives any right to collect royalties from You for the exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties.\r\nSection 3 – License Conditions.\r\n\r\nYour exercise of the Licensed Rights is expressly made subject to the following conditions.\r\n\r\nAttribution.\r\n\r\nIf You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), You must:\r\n\r\nretain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor with the Licensed Material:\r\nidentification of the creator(s) of the Licensed Material and any others designated to receive attribution, in any reasonable manner requested by the Licensor (including by pseudonym if designated);\r\na copyright notice;\r\na notice that refers to this Public License;\r\na notice that refers to the disclaimer of warranties;\r\na URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the extent reasonably practicable;\r\nindicate if You modified the Licensed Material and retain an indication of any previous modifications; and\r\nindicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this Public License, and include the text of, or the URI or hyperlink to, this Public License.\r\nYou may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource that includes the required information.\r\nIf requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the information required by Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable.\r\nIf You Share Adapted Material You produce, the Adapter's License You apply must not prevent recipients of the Adapted Material from complying with this Public License.\r\nSection 4 – Sui Generis Database Rights.\r\n\r\nWhere the Licensed Rights include Sui Generis Database Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material:\r\n\r\nfor the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database;\r\nif You include all or a substantial portion of the database contents in a database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights, then the database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights (but not its individual contents) is Adapted Material; and\r\nYou must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nSection 5 – Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability.\r\n\r\nUnless otherwise separately undertaken by the Licensor, to the extent possible, the Licensor offers the Licensed Material as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind concerning the Licensed Material, whether express, implied, statutory, or other. This includes, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, absence of latent or other defects, accuracy, or the presence or absence of errors, whether or not known or discoverable. Where disclaimers of warranties are not allowed in full or in part, this disclaimer may not apply to You.\r\nTo the extent possible, in no event will the Licensor be liable to You on any legal theory (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise for any direct, special, indirect, incidental, consequential, punitive, exemplary, or other losses, costs, expenses, or damages arising out of this Public License or use of the Licensed Material, even if the Licensor has been advised of the possibility of such losses, costs, expenses, or damages. Where a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part, this limitation may not apply to You.\r\nThe disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability.\r\nSection 6 – Term and Termination.\r\n\r\nThis Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License terminate automatically.\r\nWhere Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under Section 6(a), it reinstates:\r\n\r\nautomatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided it is cured within 30 days of Your discovery of the violation; or\r\nupon express reinstatement by the Licensor.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 6(b) does not affect any right the Licensor may have to seek remedies for Your violations of this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the Licensed Material under separate terms or conditions or stop distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so will not terminate this Public License.\r\nSections 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 survive termination of this Public License.\r\nSection 7 – Other Terms and Conditions.\r\n\r\nThe Licensor shall not be bound by any additional or different terms or conditions communicated by You unless expressly agreed.\r\nAny arrangements, understandings, or agreements regarding the Licensed Material not stated herein are separate from and independent of the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nSection 8 – Interpretation.\r\n\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Public License does not, and shall not be interpreted to, reduce, limit, restrict, or impose conditions on any use of the Licensed Material that could lawfully be made without permission under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, if any provision of this Public License is deemed unenforceable, it shall be automatically reformed to the minimum extent necessary to make it enforceable. If the provision cannot be reformed, it shall be severed from this Public License without affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and conditions.\r\nNo term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the Licensor.\r\nNothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode"},"keywords":[{"word":"Heat Extremes"},{"word":" Weather regimes"},{"word":" temperature trends"},{"word":" machine learning"},{"word":" variational autoencoders"}],"date_submitted":"2025-11-11T18:33:46.096000+01:00","date_accepted":"2025-11-12T19:22:53.203000+01:00","date_published":"2025-11-12T19:22:00+01:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae499b","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X5KB38","authors":[{"pk":123378,"first_name":"Julianna","middle_name":"","last_name":"Carvalho Oliveira","salutation":"Dr","orcid":null},{"pk":123384,"first_name":"Fiona","middle_name":"","last_name":"Spuler","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":85340,"first_name":"Marlene","middle_name":"","last_name":"Kretschmer","salutation":"","orcid":null}],"subject":[{"name":"Atmospheric Sciences"},{"name":"Climate"},{"name":"Meteorology"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"EarthArXiv_preprint_Carvalho-Oliveira_etal_2025.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10775/download/19766/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":9503,"title":"An explainable machine learning prediction system for early-warning of heat stress on Florida’s Coral Reef","abstract":"Coral reefs are facing increasing threats from rising ocean temperatures, necessitating timely and localized prediction tools to inform reef management and conservation. This study introduces a machine learning framework capable of forecasting the onset of moderate coral heat stress at site-specific resolution on Florida’s Coral Reef. Leveraging the XGBoost algorithm, the data-driven prediction system forecasts whether heat stress will occur in a given season and, if so, the week in which moderate stress will begin. The prediction system achieves skillful forecasts up to six weeks in advance with a mean absolute error of approximately ±1 week. Two baselines are defined to compare performance– a multiple logistic regression model and a frequency-based model that predicts onset using the most common onset week, with the number of predicted onsets matched to the historical onset rate through random sampling. At the three reef sites analyzed, the machine learning model outperforms both baseline approaches in overall performance, including accuracy in predicting the timing of heat stress onset. Our approach uses the explainable AI technique, SHAP, to identify the most influential predictors across reef sites, lead times, and onset occurrence. Surface air temperature consistently ranked as a top predictor, while other key variables varied by location and lead time, underscoring the importance of localized analysis for drivers of heat stress onset. This framework provides an explainable tool for predictions on actionable timescales for anticipatory conservation with insight into stress onset at specific reefs, potentially allowing managers to develop reef-specific monitoring for emergency actions.
","license":{"name":"CC BY Attribution 4.0 International","short_name":"CC BY 4.0","text":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License\r\n\r\nBy exercising the Licensed Rights (defined below), You accept and agree to be bound by the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (\"Public License\"). To the extent this Public License may be interpreted as a contract, You are granted the Licensed Rights in consideration of Your acceptance of these terms and conditions, and the Licensor grants You such rights in consideration of benefits the Licensor receives from making the Licensed Material available under these terms and conditions.\r\n\r\nSection 1 – Definitions.\r\n\r\nAdapted Material means material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights that is derived from or based upon the Licensed Material and in which the Licensed Material is translated, altered, arranged, transformed, or otherwise modified in a manner requiring permission under the Copyright and Similar Rights held by the Licensor. For purposes of this Public License, where the Licensed Material is a musical work, performance, or sound recording, Adapted Material is always produced where the Licensed Material is synched in timed relation with a moving image.\r\nAdapter's License means the license You apply to Your Copyright and Similar Rights in Your contributions to Adapted Material in accordance with the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nCopyright and Similar Rights means copyright and/or similar rights closely related to copyright including, without limitation, performance, broadcast, sound recording, and Sui Generis Database Rights, without regard to how the rights are labeled or categorized. For purposes of this Public License, the rights specified in Section 2(b)(1)-(2) are not Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nEffective Technological Measures means those measures that, in the absence of proper authority, may not be circumvented under laws fulfilling obligations under Article 11 of the WIPO Copyright Treaty adopted on December 20, 1996, and/or similar international agreements.\r\nExceptions and Limitations means fair use, fair dealing, and/or any other exception or limitation to Copyright and Similar Rights that applies to Your use of the Licensed Material.\r\nLicensed Material means the artistic or literary work, database, or other material to which the Licensor applied this Public License.\r\nLicensed Rights means the rights granted to You subject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, which are limited to all Copyright and Similar Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material and that the Licensor has authority to license.\r\nLicensor means the individual(s) or entity(ies) granting rights under this Public License.\r\nShare means to provide material to the public by any means or process that requires permission under the Licensed Rights, such as reproduction, public display, public performance, distribution, dissemination, communication, or importation, and to make material available to the public including in ways that members of the public may access the material from a place and at a time individually chosen by them.\r\nSui Generis Database Rights means rights other than copyright resulting from Directive 96/9/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 1996 on the legal protection of databases, as amended and/or succeeded, as well as other essentially equivalent rights anywhere in the world.\r\nYou means the individual or entity exercising the Licensed Rights under this Public License. Your has a corresponding meaning.\r\nSection 2 – Scope.\r\n\r\nLicense grant.\r\nSubject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, the Licensor hereby grants You a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to:\r\nreproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part; and\r\nproduce, reproduce, and Share Adapted Material.\r\nExceptions and Limitations. For the avoidance of doubt, where Exceptions and Limitations apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with its terms and conditions.\r\nTerm. The term of this Public License is specified in Section 6(a).\r\nMedia and formats; technical modifications allowed. The Licensor authorizes You to exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications necessary to circumvent Effective Technological Measures. For purposes of this Public License, simply making modifications authorized by this Section 2(a)(4) never produces Adapted Material.\r\nDownstream recipients.\r\nOffer from the Licensor – Licensed Material. Every recipient of the Licensed Material automatically receives an offer from the Licensor to exercise the Licensed Rights under the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nNo downstream restrictions. You may not offer or impose any additional or different terms or conditions on, or apply any Effective Technological Measures to, the Licensed Material if doing so restricts exercise of the Licensed Rights by any recipient of the Licensed Material.\r\nNo endorsement. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be construed as permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i).\r\nOther rights.\r\n\r\nMoral rights, such as the right of integrity, are not licensed under this Public License, nor are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but not otherwise.\r\nPatent and trademark rights are not licensed under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, the Licensor waives any right to collect royalties from You for the exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties.\r\nSection 3 – License Conditions.\r\n\r\nYour exercise of the Licensed Rights is expressly made subject to the following conditions.\r\n\r\nAttribution.\r\n\r\nIf You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), You must:\r\n\r\nretain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor with the Licensed Material:\r\nidentification of the creator(s) of the Licensed Material and any others designated to receive attribution, in any reasonable manner requested by the Licensor (including by pseudonym if designated);\r\na copyright notice;\r\na notice that refers to this Public License;\r\na notice that refers to the disclaimer of warranties;\r\na URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the extent reasonably practicable;\r\nindicate if You modified the Licensed Material and retain an indication of any previous modifications; and\r\nindicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this Public License, and include the text of, or the URI or hyperlink to, this Public License.\r\nYou may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource that includes the required information.\r\nIf requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the information required by Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable.\r\nIf You Share Adapted Material You produce, the Adapter's License You apply must not prevent recipients of the Adapted Material from complying with this Public License.\r\nSection 4 – Sui Generis Database Rights.\r\n\r\nWhere the Licensed Rights include Sui Generis Database Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material:\r\n\r\nfor the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database;\r\nif You include all or a substantial portion of the database contents in a database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights, then the database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights (but not its individual contents) is Adapted Material; and\r\nYou must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nSection 5 – Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability.\r\n\r\nUnless otherwise separately undertaken by the Licensor, to the extent possible, the Licensor offers the Licensed Material as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind concerning the Licensed Material, whether express, implied, statutory, or other. This includes, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, absence of latent or other defects, accuracy, or the presence or absence of errors, whether or not known or discoverable. Where disclaimers of warranties are not allowed in full or in part, this disclaimer may not apply to You.\r\nTo the extent possible, in no event will the Licensor be liable to You on any legal theory (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise for any direct, special, indirect, incidental, consequential, punitive, exemplary, or other losses, costs, expenses, or damages arising out of this Public License or use of the Licensed Material, even if the Licensor has been advised of the possibility of such losses, costs, expenses, or damages. Where a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part, this limitation may not apply to You.\r\nThe disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability.\r\nSection 6 – Term and Termination.\r\n\r\nThis Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License terminate automatically.\r\nWhere Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under Section 6(a), it reinstates:\r\n\r\nautomatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided it is cured within 30 days of Your discovery of the violation; or\r\nupon express reinstatement by the Licensor.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 6(b) does not affect any right the Licensor may have to seek remedies for Your violations of this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the Licensed Material under separate terms or conditions or stop distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so will not terminate this Public License.\r\nSections 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 survive termination of this Public License.\r\nSection 7 – Other Terms and Conditions.\r\n\r\nThe Licensor shall not be bound by any additional or different terms or conditions communicated by You unless expressly agreed.\r\nAny arrangements, understandings, or agreements regarding the Licensed Material not stated herein are separate from and independent of the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nSection 8 – Interpretation.\r\n\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Public License does not, and shall not be interpreted to, reduce, limit, restrict, or impose conditions on any use of the Licensed Material that could lawfully be made without permission under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, if any provision of this Public License is deemed unenforceable, it shall be automatically reformed to the minimum extent necessary to make it enforceable. If the provision cannot be reformed, it shall be severed from this Public License without affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and conditions.\r\nNo term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the Licensor.\r\nNothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode"},"keywords":[{"word":"explainable machine learning"},{"word":"heat stress"},{"word":"Florida's Coral Reef"}],"date_submitted":"2025-06-25T00:58:13.102000+02:00","date_accepted":"2025-06-25T19:16:47.560000+02:00","date_published":"2025-06-25T19:16:00+02:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae2570","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X51T7N","authors":[{"pk":26071,"first_name":"Marybeth","middle_name":"","last_name":"Arcodia","salutation":"Dr","orcid":"0000-0002-7038-1932"},{"pk":110673,"first_name":"Richard","middle_name":"","last_name":"Karp","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":16615,"first_name":"Elizabeth","middle_name":"A","last_name":"Barnes","salutation":"","orcid":null}],"subject":[{"name":"Earth Sciences"},{"name":"Environmental Sciences"},{"name":"Marine Biology"},{"name":"Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology"},{"name":"Physical Sciences and Mathematics"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"EarthArxiv_ArcodiaKarpBarnes_coralstress.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/9503/download/17713/"},{"original_filename":"EarthArxiv_ArcodiaKarpBarnes_coralstress.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/9503/download/17729/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":10369,"title":"Machine learning predictions of summertime warming jumps on decadal timescales","abstract":"Extreme events are responsible for some of the most severe impacts of climate change, but regional extreme event prediction remains a challenge as the events contain a large amount of stochasticity. Here we demonstrate an approach for predicting future summertime temperature extremes on decadal timescales by first identifying an abrupt jump in average summertime temperature as a covariate of extreme summertime temperatures, and then showing that these jumps can be predictable. We train a convolutional neural network (CNN) on historical and future global climate simulations to predict a confidence that future five-year mean summertime temperatures will jump above a hot threshold given maps of recent sea surface temperature variability and the global warming level. We show that in most land regions, the CNN outperforms a classifier that relies solely on the forced temperature response, implying that information about the prior 10-year SST variability improves the CNN's prediction skill and confidence. We input the observational record into the CNN as independent unseen data and observe some skill, with investigation revealing that this skill is driven by the CNN learning conditions that best suppress summertime temperature jumps. Our study emphasizes the importance of targeted methodology for diagnosing extreme event predictability, and demonstrates that future predictions of extremes can be improved by considering the prior 10-year SST variability, rather than just the forced response to global warming.
","license":{"name":"CC-By Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International","short_name":"CC BY-NC-ND 4.0","text":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License\r\n\r\nBy exercising the Licensed Rights (defined below), You accept and agree to be bound by the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License (\"Public License\"). To the extent this Public License may be interpreted as a contract, You are granted the Licensed Rights in consideration of Your acceptance of these terms and conditions, and the Licensor grants You such rights in consideration of benefits the Licensor receives from making the Licensed Material available under these terms and conditions.\r\n\r\nSection 1 – Definitions.\r\n\r\nAdapted Material means material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights that is derived from or based upon the Licensed Material and in which the Licensed Material is translated, altered, arranged, transformed, or otherwise modified in a manner requiring permission under the Copyright and Similar Rights held by the Licensor. For purposes of this Public License, where the Licensed Material is a musical work, performance, or sound recording, Adapted Material is always produced where the Licensed Material is synched in timed relation with a moving image.\r\nCopyright and Similar Rights means copyright and/or similar rights closely related to copyright including, without limitation, performance, broadcast, sound recording, and Sui Generis Database Rights, without regard to how the rights are labeled or categorized. For purposes of this Public License, the rights specified in Section 2(b)(1)-(2) are not Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nEffective Technological Measures means those measures that, in the absence of proper authority, may not be circumvented under laws fulfilling obligations under Article 11 of the WIPO Copyright Treaty adopted on December 20, 1996, and/or similar international agreements.\r\nExceptions and Limitations means fair use, fair dealing, and/or any other exception or limitation to Copyright and Similar Rights that applies to Your use of the Licensed Material.\r\nLicensed Material means the artistic or literary work, database, or other material to which the Licensor applied this Public License.\r\nLicensed Rights means the rights granted to You subject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, which are limited to all Copyright and Similar Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material and that the Licensor has authority to license.\r\nLicensor means the individual(s) or entity(ies) granting rights under this Public License.\r\nNonCommercial means not primarily intended for or directed towards commercial advantage or monetary compensation. For purposes of this Public License, the exchange of the Licensed Material for other material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights by digital file-sharing or similar means is NonCommercial provided there is no payment of monetary compensation in connection with the exchange.\r\nShare means to provide material to the public by any means or process that requires permission under the Licensed Rights, such as reproduction, public display, public performance, distribution, dissemination, communication, or importation, and to make material available to the public including in ways that members of the public may access the material from a place and at a time individually chosen by them.\r\nSui Generis Database Rights means rights other than copyright resulting from Directive 96/9/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 1996 on the legal protection of databases, as amended and/or succeeded, as well as other essentially equivalent rights anywhere in the world.\r\nYou means the individual or entity exercising the Licensed Rights under this Public License. Your has a corresponding meaning.\r\nSection 2 – Scope.\r\n\r\nLicense grant.\r\nSubject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, the Licensor hereby grants You a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to:\r\nreproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part, for NonCommercial purposes only; and\r\nproduce and reproduce, but not Share, Adapted Material for NonCommercial purposes only.\r\nExceptions and Limitations. For the avoidance of doubt, where Exceptions and Limitations apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with its terms and conditions.\r\nTerm. The term of this Public License is specified in Section 6(a).\r\nMedia and formats; technical modifications allowed. The Licensor authorizes You to exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications necessary to circumvent Effective Technological Measures. For purposes of this Public License, simply making modifications authorized by this Section 2(a)(4) never produces Adapted Material.\r\nDownstream recipients.\r\nOffer from the Licensor – Licensed Material. Every recipient of the Licensed Material automatically receives an offer from the Licensor to exercise the Licensed Rights under the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nNo downstream restrictions. You may not offer or impose any additional or different terms or conditions on, or apply any Effective Technological Measures to, the Licensed Material if doing so restricts exercise of the Licensed Rights by any recipient of the Licensed Material.\r\nNo endorsement. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be construed as permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i).\r\nOther rights.\r\n\r\nMoral rights, such as the right of integrity, are not licensed under this Public License, nor are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but not otherwise.\r\nPatent and trademark rights are not licensed under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, the Licensor waives any right to collect royalties from You for the exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties, including when the Licensed Material is used other than for NonCommercial purposes.\r\nSection 3 – License Conditions.\r\n\r\nYour exercise of the Licensed Rights is expressly made subject to the following conditions.\r\n\r\nAttribution.\r\n\r\nIf You Share the Licensed Material, You must:\r\n\r\nretain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor with the Licensed Material:\r\nidentification of the creator(s) of the Licensed Material and any others designated to receive attribution, in any reasonable manner requested by the Licensor (including by pseudonym if designated);\r\na copyright notice;\r\na notice that refers to this Public License;\r\na notice that refers to the disclaimer of warranties;\r\na URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the extent reasonably practicable;\r\nindicate if You modified the Licensed Material and retain an indication of any previous modifications; and\r\nindicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this Public License, and include the text of, or the URI or hyperlink to, this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, You do not have permission under this Public License to Share Adapted Material.\r\nYou may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource that includes the required information.\r\nIf requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the information required by Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable.\r\nSection 4 – Sui Generis Database Rights.\r\n\r\nWhere the Licensed Rights include Sui Generis Database Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material:\r\n\r\nfor the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database for NonCommercial purposes only and provided You do not Share Adapted Material;\r\nif You include all or a substantial portion of the database contents in a database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights, then the database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights (but not its individual contents) is Adapted Material; and\r\nYou must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nSection 5 – Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability.\r\n\r\nUnless otherwise separately undertaken by the Licensor, to the extent possible, the Licensor offers the Licensed Material as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind concerning the Licensed Material, whether express, implied, statutory, or other. This includes, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, absence of latent or other defects, accuracy, or the presence or absence of errors, whether or not known or discoverable. Where disclaimers of warranties are not allowed in full or in part, this disclaimer may not apply to You.\r\nTo the extent possible, in no event will the Licensor be liable to You on any legal theory (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise for any direct, special, indirect, incidental, consequential, punitive, exemplary, or other losses, costs, expenses, or damages arising out of this Public License or use of the Licensed Material, even if the Licensor has been advised of the possibility of such losses, costs, expenses, or damages. Where a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part, this limitation may not apply to You.\r\nThe disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability.\r\nSection 6 – Term and Termination.\r\n\r\nThis Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License terminate automatically.\r\nWhere Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under Section 6(a), it reinstates:\r\n\r\nautomatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided it is cured within 30 days of Your discovery of the violation; or\r\nupon express reinstatement by the Licensor.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 6(b) does not affect any right the Licensor may have to seek remedies for Your violations of this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the Licensed Material under separate terms or conditions or stop distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so will not terminate this Public License.\r\nSections 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 survive termination of this Public License.\r\nSection 7 – Other Terms and Conditions.\r\n\r\nThe Licensor shall not be bound by any additional or different terms or conditions communicated by You unless expressly agreed.\r\nAny arrangements, understandings, or agreements regarding the Licensed Material not stated herein are separate from and independent of the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nSection 8 – Interpretation.\r\n\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Public License does not, and shall not be interpreted to, reduce, limit, restrict, or impose conditions on any use of the Licensed Material that could lawfully be made without permission under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, if any provision of this Public License is deemed unenforceable, it shall be automatically reformed to the minimum extent necessary to make it enforceable. If the provision cannot be reformed, it shall be severed from this Public License without affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and conditions.\r\nNo term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the Licensor.\r\nNothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode"},"keywords":[{"word":"decadal prediction"},{"word":"machine learning"},{"word":"extreme events"}],"date_submitted":"2025-09-30T00:11:07.604000+02:00","date_accepted":"2025-09-30T02:35:21.654000+02:00","date_published":"2025-09-29T06:37:00+02:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae488c","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X5QT87","authors":[{"pk":121088,"first_name":"Emily","middle_name":"M","last_name":"Gordon","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":16616,"first_name":"Noah","middle_name":"S","last_name":"Diffenbaugh","salutation":"","orcid":null}],"subject":[{"name":"Climate"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"main_EarthArxiv.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10369/download/19131/"},{"original_filename":"JumpPrediction_EarthArXIv.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10369/download/20697/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":9005,"title":"Integrating Climate Services into Health Systems for Nutrition Security: A Scoping Review","abstract":"Climate information services (CIS) are science-based tools used to inform decision-making in climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture, water resources, energy, disaster risk reduction and health. These CIS rely on high-quality climate and weather data in order to predict and prepare for specific extreme weather or climate events such as droughts and floods. Within the health sector, most CIS have been developed to prevent and treat specific infectious diseases or food insecurity; however less is known on how CIS have been used for nutrition programming. We conducted a scoping review of available evidence, on the use of CIS to implement nutrition interventions (both direct and indirect health and other sectors) ahead of extreme weather or climate events. We searched PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus, and grey literature sources for primary studies (observational, intervention, and program evaluations) conducted in low- and middle-income countries from January 1, 2000 to April 1, 2024. We included 48 studies, representing 67 country-level programs. The majority of programs were found in the African region (n=38), followed by Region of the Americas (n=9), Western Pacific Region (n=8), Eastern Mediterranean Region (n=1), and the European Region (n=1). Most CIS were developed in response to vector-borne diseases (17 countries), droughts (10 countries), floods (9 countries) or multi-hazards (11 countries). The types of nutrition programs deployed were largely outside of the health sector including poverty alleviation (n=49 programs), water, sanitation and hygiene (n=24 programs), disease prevention (n=23 programs) or emergency nutrition (n=19 programs). Few studies evaluated impacts of CIS on nutritional status in vulnerable populations. There is urgency and opportunity for better integration of weather and climate information into health systems decision-making and workforce preparedness at local levels to improve both short- and long-term nutrition outcomes.","license":{"name":"CC BY Attribution 4.0 International","short_name":"CC BY 4.0","text":"Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License\r\n\r\nBy exercising the Licensed Rights (defined below), You accept and agree to be bound by the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (\"Public License\"). To the extent this Public License may be interpreted as a contract, You are granted the Licensed Rights in consideration of Your acceptance of these terms and conditions, and the Licensor grants You such rights in consideration of benefits the Licensor receives from making the Licensed Material available under these terms and conditions.\r\n\r\nSection 1 – Definitions.\r\n\r\nAdapted Material means material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights that is derived from or based upon the Licensed Material and in which the Licensed Material is translated, altered, arranged, transformed, or otherwise modified in a manner requiring permission under the Copyright and Similar Rights held by the Licensor. For purposes of this Public License, where the Licensed Material is a musical work, performance, or sound recording, Adapted Material is always produced where the Licensed Material is synched in timed relation with a moving image.\r\nAdapter's License means the license You apply to Your Copyright and Similar Rights in Your contributions to Adapted Material in accordance with the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nCopyright and Similar Rights means copyright and/or similar rights closely related to copyright including, without limitation, performance, broadcast, sound recording, and Sui Generis Database Rights, without regard to how the rights are labeled or categorized. For purposes of this Public License, the rights specified in Section 2(b)(1)-(2) are not Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nEffective Technological Measures means those measures that, in the absence of proper authority, may not be circumvented under laws fulfilling obligations under Article 11 of the WIPO Copyright Treaty adopted on December 20, 1996, and/or similar international agreements.\r\nExceptions and Limitations means fair use, fair dealing, and/or any other exception or limitation to Copyright and Similar Rights that applies to Your use of the Licensed Material.\r\nLicensed Material means the artistic or literary work, database, or other material to which the Licensor applied this Public License.\r\nLicensed Rights means the rights granted to You subject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, which are limited to all Copyright and Similar Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material and that the Licensor has authority to license.\r\nLicensor means the individual(s) or entity(ies) granting rights under this Public License.\r\nShare means to provide material to the public by any means or process that requires permission under the Licensed Rights, such as reproduction, public display, public performance, distribution, dissemination, communication, or importation, and to make material available to the public including in ways that members of the public may access the material from a place and at a time individually chosen by them.\r\nSui Generis Database Rights means rights other than copyright resulting from Directive 96/9/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 1996 on the legal protection of databases, as amended and/or succeeded, as well as other essentially equivalent rights anywhere in the world.\r\nYou means the individual or entity exercising the Licensed Rights under this Public License. Your has a corresponding meaning.\r\nSection 2 – Scope.\r\n\r\nLicense grant.\r\nSubject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, the Licensor hereby grants You a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to:\r\nreproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part; and\r\nproduce, reproduce, and Share Adapted Material.\r\nExceptions and Limitations. For the avoidance of doubt, where Exceptions and Limitations apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with its terms and conditions.\r\nTerm. The term of this Public License is specified in Section 6(a).\r\nMedia and formats; technical modifications allowed. The Licensor authorizes You to exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications necessary to circumvent Effective Technological Measures. For purposes of this Public License, simply making modifications authorized by this Section 2(a)(4) never produces Adapted Material.\r\nDownstream recipients.\r\nOffer from the Licensor – Licensed Material. Every recipient of the Licensed Material automatically receives an offer from the Licensor to exercise the Licensed Rights under the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nNo downstream restrictions. You may not offer or impose any additional or different terms or conditions on, or apply any Effective Technological Measures to, the Licensed Material if doing so restricts exercise of the Licensed Rights by any recipient of the Licensed Material.\r\nNo endorsement. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be construed as permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i).\r\nOther rights.\r\n\r\nMoral rights, such as the right of integrity, are not licensed under this Public License, nor are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but not otherwise.\r\nPatent and trademark rights are not licensed under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, the Licensor waives any right to collect royalties from You for the exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties.\r\nSection 3 – License Conditions.\r\n\r\nYour exercise of the Licensed Rights is expressly made subject to the following conditions.\r\n\r\nAttribution.\r\n\r\nIf You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), You must:\r\n\r\nretain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor with the Licensed Material:\r\nidentification of the creator(s) of the Licensed Material and any others designated to receive attribution, in any reasonable manner requested by the Licensor (including by pseudonym if designated);\r\na copyright notice;\r\na notice that refers to this Public License;\r\na notice that refers to the disclaimer of warranties;\r\na URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the extent reasonably practicable;\r\nindicate if You modified the Licensed Material and retain an indication of any previous modifications; and\r\nindicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this Public License, and include the text of, or the URI or hyperlink to, this Public License.\r\nYou may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource that includes the required information.\r\nIf requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the information required by Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable.\r\nIf You Share Adapted Material You produce, the Adapter's License You apply must not prevent recipients of the Adapted Material from complying with this Public License.\r\nSection 4 – Sui Generis Database Rights.\r\n\r\nWhere the Licensed Rights include Sui Generis Database Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material:\r\n\r\nfor the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database;\r\nif You include all or a substantial portion of the database contents in a database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights, then the database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights (but not its individual contents) is Adapted Material; and\r\nYou must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nSection 5 – Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability.\r\n\r\nUnless otherwise separately undertaken by the Licensor, to the extent possible, the Licensor offers the Licensed Material as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind concerning the Licensed Material, whether express, implied, statutory, or other. This includes, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, absence of latent or other defects, accuracy, or the presence or absence of errors, whether or not known or discoverable. Where disclaimers of warranties are not allowed in full or in part, this disclaimer may not apply to You.\r\nTo the extent possible, in no event will the Licensor be liable to You on any legal theory (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise for any direct, special, indirect, incidental, consequential, punitive, exemplary, or other losses, costs, expenses, or damages arising out of this Public License or use of the Licensed Material, even if the Licensor has been advised of the possibility of such losses, costs, expenses, or damages. Where a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part, this limitation may not apply to You.\r\nThe disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability.\r\nSection 6 – Term and Termination.\r\n\r\nThis Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License terminate automatically.\r\nWhere Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under Section 6(a), it reinstates:\r\n\r\nautomatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided it is cured within 30 days of Your discovery of the violation; or\r\nupon express reinstatement by the Licensor.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 6(b) does not affect any right the Licensor may have to seek remedies for Your violations of this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the Licensed Material under separate terms or conditions or stop distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so will not terminate this Public License.\r\nSections 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 survive termination of this Public License.\r\nSection 7 – Other Terms and Conditions.\r\n\r\nThe Licensor shall not be bound by any additional or different terms or conditions communicated by You unless expressly agreed.\r\nAny arrangements, understandings, or agreements regarding the Licensed Material not stated herein are separate from and independent of the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nSection 8 – Interpretation.\r\n\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Public License does not, and shall not be interpreted to, reduce, limit, restrict, or impose conditions on any use of the Licensed Material that could lawfully be made without permission under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, if any provision of this Public License is deemed unenforceable, it shall be automatically reformed to the minimum extent necessary to make it enforceable. If the provision cannot be reformed, it shall be severed from this Public License without affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and conditions.\r\nNo term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the Licensor.\r\nNothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode"},"keywords":[{"word":"Climate information services"},{"word":"climate adaptation"},{"word":"health systems"},{"word":"nutrition"},{"word":"Low- and Middle- Income Countries"}],"date_submitted":"2025-04-19T23:00:28.643000+02:00","date_accepted":"2025-04-20T17:20:50.677000+02:00","date_published":"2025-04-20T17:20:00+02:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/ae11ce","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X5H14X","authors":[{"pk":107132,"first_name":"Bianca","middle_name":"","last_name":"Carducci","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":107133,"first_name":"Georgia","middle_name":"","last_name":"Dominguez","salutation":"","orcid":"0000-0003-3243-4535"},{"pk":107134,"first_name":"Jessica","middle_name":"","last_name":"Fanzo","salutation":"","orcid":"0000-0002-6760-1359"}],"subject":[{"name":"Public Health"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"PCLM-D-25-00094.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/9005/download/16827/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":10008,"title":"Validating and Comparing Energy Estimation Methods at Water Resource Recovery Facilities","abstract":"Water resource recovery facilities play a crucial role in the water-energy nexus, consuming a substantial amount of energy in the United States. Growing treatment volumes and more stringent water quality standards are expected to increase the amount of energy needed to treat wastewater, but accurately estimating energy consumption and potential remains challenging due to variability in scale, treatment methods, and effluent standards. In this study, we used publicly available data to evaluate the accuracy of methods for estimating energy consumption, then quantified uncertainty based on key factors like flow rate, treatment level, and geographic location. To validate methods, we estimated energy consumption at the facility-level, then compared estimates to self-reported data from utilities in major U.S. cities. We found that methods based on effluent treatment level and flow rate performed well for estimating electricity consumption, and process models of treatment trains were accurate relative to other methods for estimating total energy consumption. Applying the evaluated methods to a national inventory of treatment facilities, we estimate that annual energy consumption ranged from 50,900 to 77,100 TJ in 2012 and will increase to between 81,100 and 123,000 TJ in 2042. By quantifying the variability of existing estimation methods and highlighting their advantages and disadvantages, this work enables more data-driven water-energy management in the future.","license":{"name":"No Creative Commons license","short_name":"No CC license","text":"This option allows you to opt out of adding a Creative Commons license to your submission.","url":"https://escholarship.org"},"keywords":[{"word":"wastewater"},{"word":"electricity"},{"word":"energy recovery"},{"word":"energy"}],"date_submitted":"2025-08-22T23:01:35.210000+02:00","date_accepted":"2025-08-23T15:12:27.291000+02:00","date_published":"2025-08-23T15:12:00+02:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1088/3033-4942/ae2e35","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X56F2H","authors":[{"pk":89917,"first_name":"Abigayle","middle_name":"Rose","last_name":"Hodson","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":4021,"first_name":"Sahar","middle_name":"Head","last_name":"El Abbadi","salutation":"Dr","orcid":null},{"pk":118709,"first_name":"Rania","middle_name":"","last_name":"Lachhab","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":118708,"first_name":"Xiatong","middle_name":"","last_name":"Li","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":118707,"first_name":"Zhiyong Jason","middle_name":"","last_name":"Ren","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":118706,"first_name":"Christopher","middle_name":"M","last_name":"Chini","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":89924,"first_name":"Jennifer","middle_name":"R.","last_name":"Stokes-Draut","salutation":"","orcid":null}],"subject":[{"name":"Engineering"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"full_preprint.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/10008/download/18557/"}],"supplementary_files":[]},{"pk":9117,"title":"Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis on subseasonal-to-interannual timescales in the deep-learning climate emulator ACE2","abstract":"Deep-learning global climate emulators are providing a new lens to investigate tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis). However, without explicitly enforcing known physics, it is necessary to assess whether TC genesis in these models is physical. To address this question, we use the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 (ACE2) trained on ERA5 reanalysis to investigate TC genesis and its relationship with the large-scale environment on subseasonal-to-interannual timescales. We run simulations with ACE2 using forcing fields from 2001 to 2010, which is outside of its training period. Compared to observations, the geographic distribution and annual cycle of TC genesis are reasonably represented in ACE2 across the globe. TC genesis in ACE2 generally occurs with favorable environmental conditions (high genesis potential index) on annual, interannual, and subseasonal timescales. On subseasonal timescales, ACE2 shows that the environmental conditions for TC genesis are affected by the occurrence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs), as in observations. With pronounced eastward propagation of the MJO and realistic simulation of precipitation and three-dimensional circulation anomalies in ACE2, a clear signal of MJO modulation of TC genesis is found in most basins. This study suggests that deep learning climate emulators may be a useful tool for understanding cyclogenesis in the current climate from subseasonal-to-interannual timescales, as well as their changes in altered climates. ","license":{"name":"CC-By Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International","short_name":"CC BY-NC-ND 4.0","text":"Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License\r\n\r\nBy exercising the Licensed Rights (defined below), You accept and agree to be bound by the terms and conditions of this Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License (\"Public License\"). To the extent this Public License may be interpreted as a contract, You are granted the Licensed Rights in consideration of Your acceptance of these terms and conditions, and the Licensor grants You such rights in consideration of benefits the Licensor receives from making the Licensed Material available under these terms and conditions.\r\n\r\nSection 1 – Definitions.\r\n\r\nAdapted Material means material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights that is derived from or based upon the Licensed Material and in which the Licensed Material is translated, altered, arranged, transformed, or otherwise modified in a manner requiring permission under the Copyright and Similar Rights held by the Licensor. For purposes of this Public License, where the Licensed Material is a musical work, performance, or sound recording, Adapted Material is always produced where the Licensed Material is synched in timed relation with a moving image.\r\nCopyright and Similar Rights means copyright and/or similar rights closely related to copyright including, without limitation, performance, broadcast, sound recording, and Sui Generis Database Rights, without regard to how the rights are labeled or categorized. For purposes of this Public License, the rights specified in Section 2(b)(1)-(2) are not Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nEffective Technological Measures means those measures that, in the absence of proper authority, may not be circumvented under laws fulfilling obligations under Article 11 of the WIPO Copyright Treaty adopted on December 20, 1996, and/or similar international agreements.\r\nExceptions and Limitations means fair use, fair dealing, and/or any other exception or limitation to Copyright and Similar Rights that applies to Your use of the Licensed Material.\r\nLicensed Material means the artistic or literary work, database, or other material to which the Licensor applied this Public License.\r\nLicensed Rights means the rights granted to You subject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, which are limited to all Copyright and Similar Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material and that the Licensor has authority to license.\r\nLicensor means the individual(s) or entity(ies) granting rights under this Public License.\r\nNonCommercial means not primarily intended for or directed towards commercial advantage or monetary compensation. For purposes of this Public License, the exchange of the Licensed Material for other material subject to Copyright and Similar Rights by digital file-sharing or similar means is NonCommercial provided there is no payment of monetary compensation in connection with the exchange.\r\nShare means to provide material to the public by any means or process that requires permission under the Licensed Rights, such as reproduction, public display, public performance, distribution, dissemination, communication, or importation, and to make material available to the public including in ways that members of the public may access the material from a place and at a time individually chosen by them.\r\nSui Generis Database Rights means rights other than copyright resulting from Directive 96/9/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 1996 on the legal protection of databases, as amended and/or succeeded, as well as other essentially equivalent rights anywhere in the world.\r\nYou means the individual or entity exercising the Licensed Rights under this Public License. Your has a corresponding meaning.\r\nSection 2 – Scope.\r\n\r\nLicense grant.\r\nSubject to the terms and conditions of this Public License, the Licensor hereby grants You a worldwide, royalty-free, non-sublicensable, non-exclusive, irrevocable license to exercise the Licensed Rights in the Licensed Material to:\r\nreproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part, for NonCommercial purposes only; and\r\nproduce and reproduce, but not Share, Adapted Material for NonCommercial purposes only.\r\nExceptions and Limitations. For the avoidance of doubt, where Exceptions and Limitations apply to Your use, this Public License does not apply, and You do not need to comply with its terms and conditions.\r\nTerm. The term of this Public License is specified in Section 6(a).\r\nMedia and formats; technical modifications allowed. The Licensor authorizes You to exercise the Licensed Rights in all media and formats whether now known or hereafter created, and to make technical modifications necessary to do so. The Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any right or authority to forbid You from making technical modifications necessary to exercise the Licensed Rights, including technical modifications necessary to circumvent Effective Technological Measures. For purposes of this Public License, simply making modifications authorized by this Section 2(a)(4) never produces Adapted Material.\r\nDownstream recipients.\r\nOffer from the Licensor – Licensed Material. Every recipient of the Licensed Material automatically receives an offer from the Licensor to exercise the Licensed Rights under the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nNo downstream restrictions. You may not offer or impose any additional or different terms or conditions on, or apply any Effective Technological Measures to, the Licensed Material if doing so restricts exercise of the Licensed Rights by any recipient of the Licensed Material.\r\nNo endorsement. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be construed as permission to assert or imply that You are, or that Your use of the Licensed Material is, connected with, or sponsored, endorsed, or granted official status by, the Licensor or others designated to receive attribution as provided in Section 3(a)(1)(A)(i).\r\nOther rights.\r\n\r\nMoral rights, such as the right of integrity, are not licensed under this Public License, nor are publicity, privacy, and/or other similar personality rights; however, to the extent possible, the Licensor waives and/or agrees not to assert any such rights held by the Licensor to the limited extent necessary to allow You to exercise the Licensed Rights, but not otherwise.\r\nPatent and trademark rights are not licensed under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, the Licensor waives any right to collect royalties from You for the exercise of the Licensed Rights, whether directly or through a collecting society under any voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory licensing scheme. In all other cases the Licensor expressly reserves any right to collect such royalties, including when the Licensed Material is used other than for NonCommercial purposes.\r\nSection 3 – License Conditions.\r\n\r\nYour exercise of the Licensed Rights is expressly made subject to the following conditions.\r\n\r\nAttribution.\r\n\r\nIf You Share the Licensed Material, You must:\r\n\r\nretain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor with the Licensed Material:\r\nidentification of the creator(s) of the Licensed Material and any others designated to receive attribution, in any reasonable manner requested by the Licensor (including by pseudonym if designated);\r\na copyright notice;\r\na notice that refers to this Public License;\r\na notice that refers to the disclaimer of warranties;\r\na URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the extent reasonably practicable;\r\nindicate if You modified the Licensed Material and retain an indication of any previous modifications; and\r\nindicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this Public License, and include the text of, or the URI or hyperlink to, this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, You do not have permission under this Public License to Share Adapted Material.\r\nYou may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any reasonable manner based on the medium, means, and context in which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it may be reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or hyperlink to a resource that includes the required information.\r\nIf requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the information required by Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent reasonably practicable.\r\nSection 4 – Sui Generis Database Rights.\r\n\r\nWhere the Licensed Rights include Sui Generis Database Rights that apply to Your use of the Licensed Material:\r\n\r\nfor the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database for NonCommercial purposes only and provided You do not Share Adapted Material;\r\nif You include all or a substantial portion of the database contents in a database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights, then the database in which You have Sui Generis Database Rights (but not its individual contents) is Adapted Material; and\r\nYou must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights.\r\nSection 5 – Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability.\r\n\r\nUnless otherwise separately undertaken by the Licensor, to the extent possible, the Licensor offers the Licensed Material as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind concerning the Licensed Material, whether express, implied, statutory, or other. This includes, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, absence of latent or other defects, accuracy, or the presence or absence of errors, whether or not known or discoverable. Where disclaimers of warranties are not allowed in full or in part, this disclaimer may not apply to You.\r\nTo the extent possible, in no event will the Licensor be liable to You on any legal theory (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise for any direct, special, indirect, incidental, consequential, punitive, exemplary, or other losses, costs, expenses, or damages arising out of this Public License or use of the Licensed Material, even if the Licensor has been advised of the possibility of such losses, costs, expenses, or damages. Where a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part, this limitation may not apply to You.\r\nThe disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and waiver of all liability.\r\nSection 6 – Term and Termination.\r\n\r\nThis Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License terminate automatically.\r\nWhere Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under Section 6(a), it reinstates:\r\n\r\nautomatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided it is cured within 30 days of Your discovery of the violation; or\r\nupon express reinstatement by the Licensor.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Section 6(b) does not affect any right the Licensor may have to seek remedies for Your violations of this Public License.\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the Licensed Material under separate terms or conditions or stop distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so will not terminate this Public License.\r\nSections 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 survive termination of this Public License.\r\nSection 7 – Other Terms and Conditions.\r\n\r\nThe Licensor shall not be bound by any additional or different terms or conditions communicated by You unless expressly agreed.\r\nAny arrangements, understandings, or agreements regarding the Licensed Material not stated herein are separate from and independent of the terms and conditions of this Public License.\r\nSection 8 – Interpretation.\r\n\r\nFor the avoidance of doubt, this Public License does not, and shall not be interpreted to, reduce, limit, restrict, or impose conditions on any use of the Licensed Material that could lawfully be made without permission under this Public License.\r\nTo the extent possible, if any provision of this Public License is deemed unenforceable, it shall be automatically reformed to the minimum extent necessary to make it enforceable. If the provision cannot be reformed, it shall be severed from this Public License without affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and conditions.\r\nNo term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the Licensor.\r\nNothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal processes of any jurisdiction or authority.","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode"},"keywords":[{"word":"tropical cyclogenesis"},{"word":"Madden-Julian Oscillation"},{"word":"subseasonal variability"},{"word":"deep-learning climate emulator"}],"date_submitted":"2025-05-02T15:15:02.336000+02:00","date_accepted":"2025-05-02T15:20:45.022000+02:00","date_published":"2025-05-02T15:20:00+02:00","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1088/3049-4753/adfd61","preprint_doi":"10.31223/X5NF15","authors":[{"pk":107497,"first_name":"Mu-Ting","middle_name":"","last_name":"Chien","salutation":"","orcid":"0009-0002-7642-3731"},{"pk":95206,"first_name":"Elizabeth","middle_name":"A","last_name":"Barnes","salutation":"","orcid":null},{"pk":107568,"first_name":"Eric","middle_name":"D","last_name":"Maloney","salutation":"","orcid":null}],"subject":[{"name":"Physical Sciences and Mathematics"}],"files":[{"original_filename":"Paper1_eartharxiv.pdf","mime_type":"application/pdf","download_url":"/repository/object/9117/download/17006/"}],"supplementary_files":[]}]}