Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Statistics and Probability
Tornado damage ratings estimated with cumulative logistic regression
Published: 2019-07-19
Subjects: Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Empirical studies have led to improvements in evaluating and quantifying the tornado threat. However more work is needed to put the research onto a solid statistical foundation. Here the authors begin to build this foundation by introducing and then demonstrating a statistical model to estimate damage rating probabilities. A goal is to alert researchers to available statistical technology for [...]
Segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust inferred from geodetic observations of interseismic coupling
Published: 2019-07-04
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure
Mapping the distribution of locked segments along subduction megathrusts is essential for improving quantitative assessments of seismic hazard. Previous geodetic studies suggest the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) is homogeneously locked (or coupled) along its complete length over a down-dip extent of ~100 km. However, an increasing number of seismological and geophysical observations suggests the [...]
Information-theoretic Portfolio Decision Model for Optimal Flood Management
Published: 2019-06-27
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Computational Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering, Other Engineering, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability, Systems Engineering, Water Resource Management
The increasing impact of flooding urges more effective flood management strategies to guarantee sustainable ecosystem development. Recent catastrophes underline the importance of avoiding local flood management, but characterizing large scale basin wide approaches for systemic flood risk management. Here we introduce an information-theoretic Portfolio Decision Model (iPDM) for the optimization of [...]
Analysis of Persistence in the Flood Timing and the Role of Catchment Wetness on Flood Generation in a Large River Basin in India
Published: 2019-05-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
This study contributes to the understanding of the timing of occurrence of floods and role of the catchment wetness in flood processes (i.e., magnitude and the timing of floods) over one of the largest tropical pluvial river basin system, Mahanadi, in India. Being located in the monsoon ‘core’ region (18° - 28° N latitude and 73° - 82° E longitude) and its proximity to Bay of Bengal, Mahanadi [...]
Trends of hydroclimatic intensity in Colombia
Published: 2019-05-08
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management
Prediction of changes in precipitation in upcoming years and decades caused by global climate change associated with the greenhouse effect, deforestation and other anthropic perturbations is a practical and scientific problem of high complexity and huge consequences. To advance toward this challenge we look at the daily historical record of all available rain gauges in Colombia to estimate an [...]
Probabilistic space- and time-interaction modeling of main-shock earthquake rupture occurrence
Published: 2019-04-29
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Structural Engineering
This paper presents a probabilistic formulation for modeling earthquake rupture processes of mainshocks. A correlated multivariate Bernoulli distribution is used to model rupture occurrence. The model captures time interaction through the use of Brownian passage-time (BPT) distributions to assess rupture interarrival in multiple sections of the fault, and it also considers spatial interaction [...]
Are Detected Trends in Flood Magnitude and Shifts in the Timing of Floods of A Major River Basin in India, Linked To Anthropogenic Stressors?
Published: 2019-04-10
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Analyzing of trends in flood magnitude and the timing of the dates of flood occurrences of large river basins across the globe are essential for understanding changes in water availability (high or low flows) and assessing the fidelity of global hydrological models. Our research is motivated by the recent six major consecutive floods in Mahanadi (years: 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2013) [...]
What has Global Sensitivity Analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to support scientific advancement and to inform policy-making in earth system modelling
Published: 2019-04-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Mathematics, Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Computer models are essential tools in the earth system sciences. They underpin our search for understanding of earth system functioning and support decision- and policy-making across spatial and temporal scales. To understand the implications of uncertainty and environmental variability on the identification of such earth system models and their predictions, we can rely on increasingly powerful [...]
Matlab/R workflows to assess critical choices in Global Sensitivity Analysis using the SAFE toolbox
Published: 2019-04-05
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a set of statistical techniques to investigate the effects of the uncertainty in the input factors of a mathematical model on the model’s outputs. The value of GSA for the construction, evaluation, and improvement of earth system models is reviewed in a companion paper by Wagener and Pianosi [n.d.]. The present paper focuses on the implementation of GSA and [...]
A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe
Published: 2019-04-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Probability, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability
We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector. Following previous studies, we show that, where there is skill, a simple linear regression-based [...]
High-resolution prediction of organic matter concentration with hyperspectral imaging on a sediment core
Published: 2019-02-21
Subjects: Analytical Chemistry, Chemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Optics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Sedimentology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
In the case of environmental samples, the use of a chemometrics-based prediction model is highly challenging because of the difficulty in experimentally creating a well-ranged reference sample set. In this study, we present a methodology using short wave infrared hyperspectral imaging to create a partial least squares regression model on a cored sediment sample. It was applied to a sediment core [...]
Deep Learning Application for 4D Pressure Saturation Inversion Compared to Bayesian Inversion on North Sea Data
Published: 2019-02-21
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
In this work we present a deep neural network inversion on map-based 4D seismic data for pressure and saturation. We present a novel neural network architecture that trains on synthetic data and provides insights into observed field seismic. The network explicitly includes AVO gradient calculation within the network as physical knowledge to stabilize pressure and saturation changes separation. [...]
Hierarchical Cluster Analysis by R language for Pattern Recognition in the Bathymetric Data Frame: a Case Study of the Mariana Trench, Pacific Ocean
Published: 2019-01-25
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Education, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Geology, Geomorphology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Spatial Science, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure
The geographic focus of the current study Mariana trench, the deepest point of the Earth located in the west Pacific Ocean. Mariana trench has unique structure and features formed in the complex process of the trench development. There is a range of the environmental factors affecting trench structure and functioning: bathymetry, geography, geology and tectonics. Current research aimed to study [...]
A statistics-based reconstruction of high-resolution global terrestrial climate for the last 800,000 years
Published: 2019-01-19
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Curated global climate data have been generated from climate model outputs for the last 120,000 years, whereas reconstructions going back even further have been lacking due to the high computational cost of climate simulations. Here, we present a statistically-derived global terrestrial climate dataset for every 1,000 years of the last 800,000 years. It is based on a set of linear regressions [...]
A PCA-based framework for determining remotely-sensed geological surface orientations and their statistical quality
Published: 2018-11-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Sciences, Planetary Sedimentology, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure
The orientations of planar rock layers are fundamental to our understanding of structural geology and stratigraphy. Remote-sensing platforms including satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and LIDAR scanners are increasingly used to build three-dimensional models of structural features on Earth and other planets. Remotely-gathered orientation measurements are straightforward to calculate [...]