Preprints
Filtering by Subject: International and Area Studies
Perceptions of Drought Risk Management in Zambia: Reflections from the Historic 2023/2024 Drought
Published: 2026-09-21
Subjects: International and Area Studies
Drought risk management depends not only on understanding the physical characteristics of drought but also on how drought is experienced, interpreted, and anticipated by affected institutions and communities. This study examines perceptions of drought and their implications for risk management in Zambia using the severe 2023/2024 drought as a case study. Guided by Taylor’s perception framework [...]
ECOCIDE: Quantifying War-Time Environmental Damage: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis of the Kakhovka Dam Destruction
Published: 2026-09-05
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Biodiversity, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Human Geography, International and Area Studies, Other Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Abstract: International law organisations are actively looking into declaring "ecocide" -- mass environmental destruction -- as a prosecutable international crime and in September 2024, Vanuatu, Fiji and Samoa submitted a proposed amendment to Rome Statute. No consistent, statistically sound method yet has been developed to document such a claim of harm, however, because prior environmental [...]
Independent Verification of the European Climate Law's Effect on Nitrogen Dioxide Pollution: A Satellite-Derived, Difference-in-Differences Analysis
Published: 2026-09-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, International and Area Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Statistics and Probability
Satellite observations make it easy to compare air pollution in countries that adopted a policy with countries that did not. This paper examines what such a comparison identifies. It uses Sentinel-5P TROPOMI tropospheric NO₂ for 2019–2024 and a country-level difference-in-differences (DiD) model of the European Climate Law that compares the EU-27 with nine neighbouring non-EU countries. NO₂ fell [...]
The Vulnerability Spiral: Compound Climate Risk Across Five Islands
Published: 2026-09-05
Subjects: Biodiversity, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Geomorphology, Hydrology, International and Area Studies, Marine Biology, Natural Resource Economics, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Sustainability
Low islands face two threats at once: the sea rising, and the reefs and mangroves that buffer it weakening. I measured both across 5 island groups in 3 ocean basins (Maldives, Lakshadweep, Seychelles, Fiji and the Canary Islands), testing mangroves and coral reefs as separate pathways. Exposure is the share of people (WorldPop 2020) living on land at or below 1 m, on a bare earth elevation model [...]
The Cotton Line: Testing the Institutional Persistence of an Erased Colonial Land-Tenure Boundary Across Vidarbha's Agrarian and Vegetation Geography
Published: 2026-09-04
Subjects: Agriculture, Biodiversity, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, International and Area Studies, Statistics and Probability
Can a provincial boundary abolished in 1956 still be detected in today's farmland? In the nineteenth century Berar, in western Vidarbha, was settled under the Ryotwari land-revenue system. The Central Provinces districts to the east were settled under Malguzari. On district lineage the old line matches the present boundary between Amravati and Nagpur Divisions, which I rebuild as a 384.7 km line [...]
From Progress to Transformation: A Systems-Based Index for Measuring Agrifood Systems Transformation
Published: 2026-04-16
Subjects: International and Area Studies
This paper introduces the Agrifood Systems Transformation Index (AFSTI), a systems-based framework for measuring agrifood systems transformation as a multidimensional, goaloriented, and interdependent process. Existing measurement approaches often fail to capture the systemic nature of transformation, relying on fragmented indicators or additive aggregation methods that mask imbalance across key [...]
Trade Openness, Monetary Policy Shocks, and Welfare in Malawi: A Structural VAR Approach.
Published: 2026-03-25
Subjects: International and Area Studies
Small open economies face complex interactions between external trade dynamics and domestic monetary policy. For Malawi, persistent inflation, exchange rate instability, and dependence on primary commodity exports raise important questions about the relative roles of trade openness and monetary policy in shaping welfare outcomes. This study examines how trade and monetary shocks affect welfare, [...]
WITHDRAWN: An assessment of small rural and micro-enterprises as pathways out of poverty. Insights from KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa
Published: 2026-03-25
Subjects: International and Area Studies
Women's subjective resilience to climate change in informal settlements: Learning from residents in Nairobi, Kenya
Published: 2025-12-31
Subjects: International and Area Studies
This study explores women's subjective resilience to climate change in informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya, focusing on the lived experiences of women who face heightened vulnerability. Informal settlements, characterized by overcrowding, inadequate infrastructure, and insecure tenure, are disproportionately affected by extreme weather events such as flooding and heatwaves. While existing [...]
Can Carbon Information Disclosure Enhance Firms' New Quality Productivity? Evidence from Empirical Analysis of Chinese Listed Companies
Published: 2025-11-20
Subjects: International and Area Studies
As global efforts to tackle climate change deepen, the role of carbon information disclosure in enhancing the new quality productivity of enterprises has attracted growing attention. This paper, using data from Chinese listed companies between 2015 and 2023, investigates the effect of carbon information disclosure on new quality productivity in enterprises and the mechanisms behind it. The [...]
Past, Present and Future of the Indus Water Treaty: Implications for Transboundary Water Governance Challenges and Modernization Prospects
Published: 2025-10-30
Subjects: International and Area Studies, Physical and Environmental Geography, Water Resource Management
The Indus Water Treaty has been applauded as a successful water sharing agreement to allocate the water of Indus River system between India and Pakistan. Yet a set of diplomatic, water resources, and climatic challenges have culminated into the current state of suspension and raise questions over the future of the transboundary water governance. This paper presents a critical spatio-temporal [...]
From awareness to action: Applying Q Methodology to understand local government perspectives to deliver climate resilient WASH
Published: 2025-06-11
Subjects: International and Area Studies
Climate change presents significant threats to the sustainability of water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, adaptation efforts often overlook the perspectives of those tasked with implementing change at the local level. This study applies Q methodology to explore the subjective viewpoints of local government officials in [...]
Global industrial disruption following nuclear war
Published: 2024-12-05
Subjects: Agriculture, International and Area Studies, Other Geography, Risk Analysis
Nuclear war poses catastrophic risks not only through its immediate effects and potential nuclear winter, but also through the disruption of industrial production on which modern civilization depends. We first derive a nuclear weapon destruction radius scaling relationship from historical data and fire modelling and combine it with OpenStreetMap industrial facility locations to calculate direct [...]
Who talks about climate, peace and security? A social media analysis to identify key actors
Published: 2024-09-27
Subjects: International and Area Studies
Uncovering key actors within a policy network provides pathways for engagement, consensus-building, partnership development, and understanding the diffusion of knowledge in a given debate. Given the unprecedented scale of the climate emergency, the emerging field of climate security has rapidly gained centrality in academic and policy fora, as well as in the public debate. Yet, a systematic [...]
Heatwaves and Hostilities - Can rising temperatures lead to lasting peace?
Published: 2024-09-13
Subjects: Bioresource and Agricultural Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, International and Area Studies, Nature and Society Relations, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Other Earth Sciences, Public Health, Social and Behavioral Sciences
In this paper, we are going to explore the complex relationship between climate change and global peace. Climate change and wars have a reciprocal relationship. As the war fuels climate change, the latter can catalyze the war too. Through the analysis of the ongoing conflicts across the world, recent technological advancements, and the globalized nature of the world, we will review different [...]