Preprints
Filtering by Subject: International and Area Studies
Global industrial disruption following nuclear war
Published: 2024-12-05
Subjects: Agriculture, International and Area Studies, Other Geography, Risk Analysis
Nuclear war poses catastrophic risks not only through its immediate effects and potential nuclear winter, but also through the disruption of industrial production on which modern civilization depends. In this study we estimate the reduction in global industrial output following a US-Russia nuclear war, as well as a more limited India-Pakistan exchange, by combining geospatial analysis with [...]
Who talks about climate, peace and security? A social media analysis to identify key actors
Published: 2024-09-28
Subjects: International and Area Studies
Uncovering key actors within a policy network provides pathways for engagement, consensus-building, partnership development, and understanding the diffusion of knowledge in a given debate. Given the unprecedented scale of the climate emergency, the emerging field of climate security has rapidly gained centrality in academic and policy fora, as well as in the public debate. Yet, a systematic [...]
Heatwaves and Hostilities - Can rising temperatures lead to lasting peace?
Published: 2024-09-13
Subjects: Bioresource and Agricultural Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, International and Area Studies, Nature and Society Relations, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Other Earth Sciences, Public Health, Social and Behavioral Sciences
In this paper, we are going to explore the complex relationship between climate change and global peace. Climate change and wars have a reciprocal relationship. As the war fuels climate change, the latter can catalyze the war too. Through the analysis of the ongoing conflicts across the world, recent technological advancements, and the globalized nature of the world, we will review different [...]
Designing a scenario of unilateral climate intervention
Published: 2024-09-11
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Studies, International and Area Studies, Other Environmental Sciences
Climate change is causing increasingly alarming global impacts, such as rising temperatures and more severe storms. Despite this, current multilateral initiatives and agreements to systematically reduce greenhouse gas emissions are completely incommensurate with the scale of the problem. Thus, we explore the potential that some unilateral actor, finding present and near-future climate changes [...]
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes
Published: 2024-06-29
Subjects: Agriculture, Human Geography, International and Area Studies, Nature and Society Relations, Other Geography
The global food trade system is resilient to minor disruptions but vulnerable to major ones. Major shocks can arise from global catastrophic risks, such as abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (e.g., nuclear war) or global catastrophic infrastructure loss (e.g., due to severe geomagnetic storms or a global pandemic). We use a network model to examine how these two scenarios could impact global [...]
Fuzzy classification of countries according to their sustainable economic potential: application of the Solow-Swan and Green Solow models.
Published: 2023-10-02
Subjects: International and Area Studies
The pollution and the progressive depletion of resources are global problems that affect all humanity, but their approach is affected by the different sociopolitical and economic conditions present in the different regions. Thus, the objective of this work is to implement and analyze a methodological structure based on the Solow/Green-Solow models that facilitates the identification and [...]
Measuring the climate security nexus: the Integrated Climate Security Framework
Published: 2023-08-10
Subjects: International and Area Studies
International, regional, and national organizations and policymakers are increasingly acknowledging the implications of climate on peace and security, but robust research approaches that embrace the complexity of this nexus are lacking. In this paper, we present the Integrated Climate Security Framework (ICSF), a mixed-methods framework to understand the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages at [...]
Strategic Logic of Unilateral Climate Intervention
Published: 2023-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, International and Area Studies, Other Statistics and Probability, Risk Analysis
Climate change and unabated greenhouse gas emissions are increasing the possibility that the world will turn to climate intervention to curb ever-increasing global temperatures. To date, most work on this topic has imagined that an international organization like the United Nations or an international coalition of states will synchronize their efforts to deploy climate intervention at ideal [...]
Creating a climate changed future with the sea level rise interactive- fiction game ‘Lagos2199’
Published: 2021-07-26
Subjects: Climate, Education, Environmental Education, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Instructional Media Design, International and Area Studies, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Science and Mathematics Education, Sustainability
Story-based futures serve an important role in climate change scenario development. Stories are particularly useful in exploring sea level rise possibilities, since we know many coastal areas are specifically vulnerable to accelerating rises in sea level. This discrete change in coastline is different from most other climate change impacts, and offers a clear basis for scientifically-informed, [...]
Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts
Published: 2020-07-08
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Human Geography, International and Area Studies, Library and Information Science, Life Sciences, Nature and Society Relations, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
There is an active debate regarding the influence that climate has on the risk of armed conflict, which stems from challenges in assembling unbiased datasets, competing hypotheses on the mechanisms of climate influence, and the difficulty of disentangling direct and indirect climate effects. We use gridded historical non-state conflict records, satellite data, and land surface models in a [...]
Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review
Published: 2019-09-06
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, International and Area Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
In sub-Saharan Africa, 160 million grid-connected electricity consumers live in countries where hydropower accounts for over 50% of total power supply. A warmer climate with more frequent and intense extremes could result in supply reliability issues. Here, (i) a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change is proposed, (ii) the [...]
Decadal land-use/land-cover and land surface temperature change in Dubai and implications on the urban heat island effect: A preliminary assessment
Published: 2019-06-05
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, International and Area Studies, Near and Middle Eastern Studies, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The emirate of Dubai is the most populous and most developed of the seven emirates that comprise the United Arab Emirates. By the end of the 20th century, the emirate had shifted its economy from being primarily petroleum-based to a focus on tourism and financial services. The emirate’s capital, also named Dubai, has been growing at a rapid pace; the population in 1999 was 862,000 inhabitants, [...]
Topology, homogeneity and scale factors for object detection: application of eCognition software for urban mapping using multispectral satellite image
Published: 2019-01-25
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Education, Educational Methods, Engineering, Environmental Education, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Graphics and Human Computer Interfaces, International and Area Studies, Life Sciences, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Other Computer Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing, Science and Mathematics Education, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Spatial Science, Sustainability
The research scope of this paper is to apply spatial object based image analysis (OBIA) method for processing panchromatic multispectral image covering study area of Brussels for urban mapping. The aim is to map different land cover types and more specifically, built-up areas from the very high resolution (VHR) satellite image using OBIA approach. A case study covers urban landscapes in the [...]
Powers of 10: cross-scale optimization of social agencies for rapid climate and sustainability action
Published: 2018-08-27
Subjects: Education, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, International and Area Studies, Library and Information Science, Life Sciences, Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sustainability
Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and related sustainability initiatives will require halving of greenhouse gas emissions each decade from now on through to 2050, when net zero emissions should be achieved. To reach such significant reductions requires a rapid and strategic scaling of existing and emerging technologies and practices, coupled with economic and social transformation and [...]