Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences

Predicting Fire Season Intensity in Maritime Southeast Asia with Interpretable Models

William Stewart Daniels, Dorit M Hammerling, Rebecca R Buchholz, et al.

Published: 2021-09-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Statistical Models

There have been many extreme fire seasons in Maritime Southeast Asia (MSEA) over the last two decades, a trend which will likely continue, if not accelerate, due to climate change. Fires, in turn, are a major driver of atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) variability, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. Previous studies have explored the relationship between climate variability and fire counts, [...]

Flow-dependent and dynamical systems analyses of predictability of the Pacific-North American summertime circulation

Ebrahim Nabizadeh, Sandro W Lubis, Pedram Hassanzadeh

Published: 2021-09-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Dynamical Systems, Earth Sciences

Forecast skills of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and intrinsic predictability can be flow-dependent, e.g., different among weather regimes. Here, we have examined the predictability of distinct Pacific-North American weather regimes in June-September. Four weather regimes are identified using a self-organizing map analysis of daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies, and are [...]

Extreme smog challenge of India intensified by increasing lower tropospheric stability

Ritesh Gautam, Piyushkumar Patel, Manoj Singh, et al.

Published: 2021-08-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate

Extreme smog in India widely impacts air quality in late autumn and winter months. While the links between emissions and air quality are well-recognized, the association of smog and its intensification with climatic trends in the lower troposphere, where aerosol pollution and its radiative effects manifest, are not understood well. Here we use long-term satellite data to show a significant [...]

Fire-Generated Tornadic Vortices

Neil Lareau, Nicholas J Nauslar, Evan Bentley, et al.

Published: 2021-08-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology

Fire-generated tornadic vortices (FGTVs) linked to pyrocumulonimbi (pyroCb) are a potentially deadly, yet poorly understood and seldom observed wildfire hazard. In this study we use radar and satellite observations to examine three FGTV cases during high impact wildfires during the 2020 fire season in California, USA. We establish that these FGTVs each exhibit tornado-strength anticyclonic [...]

Comprehensive aerial survey quantifies high methane emissions from the New Mexico Permian Basin

Yuanlei Chen, Evan D Sherwin, Elena S.F. Berman, et al.

Published: 2021-08-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Limiting emissions of climate-warming methane from oil and gas (O&G) is a major opportunity for short-term climate benefits. We deploy a basin-wide airborne survey of the New Mexico Permian Basin, spanning 35,923 km^2, 26,292 active wells, and over 15,000 km of natural gas pipelines using an independently-validated hyperspectral methane point source detection and quantification system. We [...]

Safety and Belonging in the Field: A Checklist for Educators

Sarah E Greene, Gwen S. Antell, Jake Atterby, et al.

Published: 2021-08-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Cosmochemistry, Earth Sciences, Education, Environmental Education, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Fresh Water Studies, Geochemistry, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Higher Education, Human Geography, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Meteorology, Mineral Physics, Natural Resource Economics, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Geography, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Planetary Sciences, Outdoor Education, Paleobiology, Paleontology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Biogeochemistry, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Glaciology, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Mineral Physics, Planetary Sciences, Planetary Sedimentology, Remote Sensing, Sedimentology, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Soil Science, Spatial Science, Speleology, Stratigraphy, Sustainability, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology, Water Resource Management

Ensuring taught fieldwork is a positive, generative, collective, and valuable experience for all participants requires considerations beyond course content. To guarantee safety and belonging, participants’ identities (backgrounds and protected characteristics) must be considered as a part of fieldwork planning and implementation. Furthermore, getting fieldwork right is an important step in [...]

Developing a long-term high-resolution winter fog climatology over south Asia using satellite observations from 2002 to 2020

Manoj Singh, RITESH GAUTAM

Published: 2021-07-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences

The vast Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) south of the Himalaya are subject to dense fog every year during winter months (December-January), severely disrupting rail, air and public transport of millions of people living in northern India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh. Air pollution combined with high moisture availability in the shallow boundary layer, are important factors affecting the persistence [...]

Evaluating Short-Term Spatio-Temporal Tropospheric Variability in Multi-Temporal SAR Interferograms Using LES Models

Fengming Hu, Ramon F. Hanssen, Pier Siebesma, et al.

Published: 2021-07-13
Subjects: Aerospace Engineering, Atmospheric Sciences, Computational Engineering, Earth Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Meteorology, Multivariate Analysis, Signal Processing

Atmospheric delay has a significant impact on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry, inducing spatial phase errors and decorrelation in extreme weather condition. For Low Earth Orbit (LEO) SAR missions, the atmosphere can be considered as being spatio-temporally frozen due to the short integration time. Geosynchronous (GEO) SAR missions, however, have short revisit times and extensive [...]

Two-fluid single-column modelling of Rayleigh-Bénard convection as a step towards multi-fluid modelling of atmospheric convection

Daniel Shipley, Hilary Weller, Peter Clark, et al.

Published: 2021-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences

Multi-fluid models have recently been proposed as an approach to improving the representation of convection in weather and climate models. This is an attractive framework as it is fundamentally dynamical, removing some of the assumptions of mass-flux convection schemes which are invalid at current model resolutions. However, it is still not understood how best to close the multi-fluid equations [...]

Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability

Keith Bradley Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, et al.

Published: 2021-06-12
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how climate variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble of climate change projections conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2 to examine [...]

On the statistical learning analysis of rain gauge data over the Natuna Islands

Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho, Faiz Rohman Fajary, Dasapta Erwin Irawan

Published: 2021-06-08
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

This article presents state-of-the-art statistical learning methods for analyzing rain gauge data over the Natuna Islands. By using shape preserving piecewise cubic interpolation, we managed to interpolate 671 null values from the daily precipitation data. Dominant periodicity analysis of daily precipitation signals using Lomb-Scargle Power Spectral Density shows annual, intraseasonal, and [...]

Towards a Robust Detection of Interannual Ensemble Forecast Signals over the North Atlantic and Europe using Atmospheric Circulation Regimes

Swinda Klaasje Jantine Falkena, Jana de Wiljes, Antje Weisheimer, et al.

Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

In order to study the non-stationary dynamics of atmospheric circulation regimes, the use of model ensembles is often necessary. However, the regime representation within models exhibits substantial variability, making it difficult to detect robust signals. To this end we employ a regularised k-means clustering algorithm to prevent overfitting. The approach allows for the identification of six [...]

K-feldspar-rich meteorite ejecta blankets suppress the cloud-albedo feedback and trigger Earth crises.

Matt Pankhurst, Christopher Stevenson, Beverley Claire Coldwell

Published: 2021-05-24
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geology, Other Planetary Sciences, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Meteorite impacts load the stratosphere with dust and cover the Earth’s surface with debris. They have long been debated as a trigger of mass extinctions through Earth’s history. Impact winters generally last <100 years, whereas ejecta blankets persist for 103-105 years. Here we show that only meteorite impacts that emplaced ejecta blankets rich in K-feldspar correlate to Earth-system crises [...]

The carbon cycle of southeast Australia during 2019-2020: Drought, fires and subsequent recovery

Brendan Byrne, Junjie Liu, Meemong Lee, et al.

Published: 2021-05-13
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Forest Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

2019 was the hottest and driest year on record for southeast Australia leading to bushfires of unprecedented extent. Ecosystem carbon losses due to drought and fire are believed to have been substantial, but have not been well quantified. Here, we utilize space-based measurements of trace gases (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument XCO, Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 XCO2) and up-scaled GPP (FluxSat [...]

Global Assessment of Oil and Gas Methane Ultra-Emitters

Thomas Lauvaux, Clément Giron, Matthieu Mazzolini, et al.

Published: 2021-05-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oil, Gas, and Energy

Methane emissions from oil and gas (O&G) production and transmission represent a significant contribution to climate change. These emissions comprise sporadic releases of large amounts of methane during maintenance operations or equipment failures not accounted for in current inventory estimates. We collected and analyzed hundreds of very large releases from atmospheric methane images sampled by [...]

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