Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences

The Fingerprint of Anthropogenic Warming on Global Agriculture

Frances Moore

Published: 2020-10-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistical Methodology

A large literature on “detection and attribution” has now demonstrated the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on a range of physical climate variables. Social and economic outcomes are known to be sensitive to climate change, but directly connecting observed changes to anthropogenic forcing is challenging. Here I demonstrate that changes in global productivity of maize, wheat, [...]

Urban Air Quality Modeling Using Low-Cost Sensor Network and Data Assimilation in the Aburra Valley, Colombia

Santiago Lopez-Restrepo, Andres Yarce, Nicolas Pinel, O. Lucia Quintero, Arjo Segers, Arnold W. Heemink

Published: 2020-10-30
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring

The use of low air quality networks has been increasing in recent years to study urban pollution dynamics. Here we show the evaluation of the operational Aburra Valley's low-cost network against the official monitoring network. The results show that the PM2.5 low-cost measurements are very close to those observed by the official network. Additionally, the low-cost allows a higher spatial [...]

The Global Warming Potential Misrepresents the Physics of Global Warming Thereby Misleading Policy Makers

Robert L Kleinberg

Published: 2020-10-25
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oil, Gas, and Energy

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is a widely used metric used to compare the climate change effects of various greenhouse gases. Although GWP has an established role in international climate agreements, GWP does not, in general, describe any specific identifiable impact of greenhouse gas emissions on climate. It is argued here that GWP is unphysical, unintuitive, arbitrary, ignores the time [...]

Correcting 19th and 20th century sea surface temperatures improves simulations of Atlantic hurricane activity

DUO CHAN, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, Peter Huybers

Published: 2020-08-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Changes in the statistics of North Atlantic hurricanes are known to depend upon the pattern of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Dynamical and statistical models are key tools to predict future hurricane activity, with our confidence in this application rooted in the models’ ability to skillfully reproduce hurricane variations over the past 30-40 years, when satellite data allows [...]

A Statistical Evaluation of WRF-LES Trace Gas Dispersion Using Project Prairie Grass Measurements

Alex Rybchuk, Caroline B. Alden, Julie K. Lundquist, Gregory B. Rieker

Published: 2020-08-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

In recent years, new measurement systems have been deployed to monitor and quantify methane emissions from the natural gas sector. Large-eddy simulation (LES) has complemented measurement campaigns by serving as a controlled environment in which to study plume dynamics and sampling strategies. However, with few comparisons to controlled-release experiments, the accuracy of LES for modeling [...]

An Eddy-Zonal Flow Feedback Model for Propagating Annular Modes

Sandro Lubis, Pedram Hassanzadeh

Published: 2020-07-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The variability of the zonal-mean large-scale extratropical circulation is often studied using individual modes obtained from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses. The prevailing reduced-order model of the leading EOF (EOF1) of zonal-mean zonal wind, called the annular mode, consists of an eddy-mean flow interaction mechanism that results in a positive feedback of EOF1 onto itself. [...]

Mass independent fractionation of even and odd mercury isotopes during free tropospheric mercury oxidation

Xuewu Fu, Martin Jiskra, Xu Yang, Nicolas Marusczak, Maxime Enrico, Jerome Chmeleff, Lars-Eric Heimburger-Boavida, Francois Gheusi, Jeroen E Sonke

Published: 2020-07-08
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Even mercury (Hg) isotope mass independent fractionation (MIF), observed in rainfall globally, is used to quantify atmospheric Hg deposition pathways. The underlying reaction and MIF mechanism are unknown however. Here we investigate the Hg isotope composition of free tropospheric gaseous elemental Hg0 and HgII forms. We find that gaseous oxidized HgII has positive Δ199Hg, Δ201Hg, Δ200Hg, and [...]

Surprising increase in aerosol amid widespread decline in pollution over India during the COVID19 Lockdown

Satyndera Kumar Pandey, Vinoj V

Published: 2020-07-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Using ground-based and satellite observation along with aerosol reanalysis products, we show a widespread reduction in aerosol loading over the Indian subcontinent during the COVID19 lockdown. In terms of aerosol optical depth (AOD), loading has reduced up to 40 % over the most populated region of India. However, the central part of India shows an unexpected increase (~+20 %) in aerosol optical [...]

Deep spatial transformers for autoregressive data-driven forecasting of geophysical turbulence

Ashesh Kumar Chattopadhyay, Mustafa Mustafa, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Karthik Kashinath

Published: 2020-07-06
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Computer Sciences, Dynamical Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geophysics and Seismology, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics

A deep spatial transformer based encoder-decoder model has been developed to autoregressively predict the time evolution of the upper layers stream function of a two-layered quasi-geostrophic (QG) system without any information about the lower layers stream function. The spatio-temporal complexity of QG flow is comparable to the complexity of 500hPa Geopotential Height (Z500) of fully coupled [...]

Tropical cyclone response to anthropogenic warming as simulated by a mesoscale-resolving global coupled earth system model

Axel Timmermann, Jung-Eun Chu, Sun-Seon Lee, Christian Wengel, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi

Published: 2020-06-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme storm systems that form over warm tropical oceans. Along their track TCs can mix up cold water which can further impact their development. Due to the adoption of lower ocean model resolutions, previous modeling studies on the TC response to greenhouse warming underestimate such oceanic feedbacks. To address the robustness of TC projections in the presence of [...]

Seasonal impact-based mapping of compound hazards

John Hillier, Richard Dixon

Published: 2020-06-17
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Mathematics, Multivariate Analysis, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Impact-based, seasonal mapping of compound hazards is proposed. It is pragmatic, identifies phenomena to drive the research agenda, produces outputs relevant to stakeholders, and could be applied to many hazards globally. Illustratively, flooding and wind damage can co-occur, worsening their joint impact, yet where wet and windy seasons combine has not yet been systematically mapped. Here, [...]

Decomposing the Drivers of Polar Amplification with a Single Column Model.

Matthew Henry, Tim Merlis, Nicholas Lutsko, Brian E.J. Rose

Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The precise mechanisms driving Arctic amplification are still under debate. Previous attribution methods based on top-of-atmosphere energy budgets have assumed all forcings and feedbacks lead to vertically-uniform temperature changes, with any departures from this collected into the lapse-rate feedback. We propose an alternative attribution method using a single column model that accounts for the [...]

Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves

Zhonghua Zheng, Lei Zhao, Keith W. Oleson

Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability

Urban heat waves (UHWs) are strongly associated with socioeconomic impacts. Reliable projections of these extremes are pressingly needed for local actions in the context of extreme event preparedness and mitigation. Such information, however, is not available because current multi-model projections largely lack a representation of urban areas. Here, we use a newly-developed urban climate emulator [...]

Atmospheric thermal convection and strong chaotic fluctuations of global temperature on Earth and on Mars

Alexander Bershadskii

Published: 2020-06-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

It is shown that the atmospheric thermal (buoyancy driven) convection plays the main role in generation of the strong chaotic fluctuations of the global temperature through the Kolmogorov-Bolgiano-Obukhov mechanism (in the frames of the distributed chaos approach). It is valid for the planets with substantial atmosphere such as the Earth and Mars. Direct numerical simulations, the Berkeley Earth [...]

Observation-based Simulations of Humidity and Temperature Using Quantile Regression

Andrew Poppick, Karen A. McKinnon

Published: 2020-05-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

The human impacts of changes in heat events depend on changes in the joint behavior of temperature and humidity. Little is currently known about these complex joint changes, either in observations or projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Further, GCMs do not fully reproduce the observed joint distribution, implying a need for simulation methods that combine information from GCMs [...]

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