Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences

Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment

Patrick W Keys, Elizabeth A Barnes, Noah S Diffenbaugh, et al.

Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Sustainability

As anthropogenic activities continue to warm the Earth, the fundamental solution of reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains elusive. Given this mitigation gap, global warming may lead to intolerable climate changes as local adaptive capacity is exceeded. Thus, there is emerging interest in solar radiation management, which is the process of deliberately increasing Earth's albedo to cool the [...]

Robust Probabilities of Detection and Quantification Uncertainty for Aerial Methane Detection: Examples for Three Airborne Technologies

Bradley Mark Conrad, David R Tyner, Matthew R Johnson

Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Mechanical Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models

Thorough understanding of probabilities of detection (POD) and quantification uncertainties is fundamentally important when applying aerial measurement technologies as part of alternative means of emission limitation (AMEL) or alternate fugitive emissions management programs (Alt-FEMP), as part of monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) efforts, and in surveys designed to support [...]

Validation of glacial-interglacial rainfall variations in southwest Sulawesi using Mg/Ca and δ18O in speleothems

Alena K Kimbrough, Michael Gagan, Gavin Dunbar, et al.

Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Speleology

Speleothem δ18O is widely used as a proxy for rainfall amount in the tropics on glacial-interglacial to interannual scales. However, uncertainties in the interpretation of this renowned proxy pose a vexing problem in tropical paleoclimatology. Here, we present paired measurements of Mg/Ca and δ18O for multiple stalagmites from southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, that that confirm changes in rainfall [...]

Sub-seasonal Prediction of Central European Summer Heatwaves with Linear and Random Forest Machine Learning Models

Elizabeth Weirich Benet, Maria Pyrina, Bernat Jiménez Esteve, et al.

Published: 2022-06-02
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences

Heatwaves are extreme near-surface temperature events that can have substantial impacts on ecosystems and society. Early Warning Systems help to reduce these impacts. However, state-of-the-art prediction systems can often not make accurate forecasts of heatwaves more than two weeks in advance, which are required for advance warnings. We therefore investigate the potential of statistical and [...]

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Hurricane Surge and Inundation

William James Pringle, Zachary R Burnett, Khachik Sargsyan, et al.

Published: 2022-05-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

This study proposes a methodology for efficient probabilistic prediction of near-landfall hurricane-driven storm surge, tide, and inundation. We perturb forecasts of hurricane track, intensity, and size according to quasi-random low-discrepancy Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of [...]

Development of a machine learning approach for local-scale ozone and PM2.5 forecasting: Application to multiple AQS sites in the Pacific Northwest

Kai Fan, Ranil Dhammapala, Kyle Harrington, et al.

Published: 2022-05-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences

A machine learning (ML) based modeling framework has been successfully used to provide operational forecasts of O3 at Kennewick, WA. This paper shows its performance when applied to other observation locations to predict O3 and PM2.5 concentrations. The 10-time, 10-fold cross-validation method was used to evaluate the model performance in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Similar to Kennewick, ML1 [...]

Automated machine learning to evaluate the information content of tropospheric trace gas columns for fine particle estimates over India: a modeling testbed

Zhonghua Zheng, Arlene M. Fiore, Daniel M. Westervelt, et al.

Published: 2022-03-20
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

India is largely devoid of high-quality and reliable on-the-ground measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Ground-level PM2.5 concentrations are estimated from publicly available satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) products combined with other information. Prior research has largely overlooked the possibility of gaining additional accuracy and insights into the sources of PM using [...]

Complex multi-source emissions quantification results for the PoMELO vehicle measurement system, test results from the CSU METEC facility

Thomas Barchyn, Chris Hugenholtz

Published: 2022-03-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Other Engineering, Petroleum Engineering, Systems Engineering

Methane emissions from oil and gas sites are often characterized by mixed plumes from multiple sources in close proximity. This presents a challenge for screening methods that rely on emissions quantification to direct and prioritize follow-up inspections. Here, we present results from experiments evaluating mixed-source quantifications using the University of Calgary Portable Methane Leak [...]

2021 North American Heatwave Amplified by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions

Samuel Bartusek, Kai Kornhuber, Mingfang Ting

Published: 2022-02-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Heat conditions in North America in summer 2021 exceeded prior heatwaves by margins many would have considered impossible under current climate conditions. Associated severe impacts highlight the need for understanding its physical drivers and relations to climate change, to improve the projection and prediction of future extreme heat risks. Here, we find that slow- and fast-moving components of [...]

Vertically Resolved Convective/Stratiform Echo Type Identification and Convectivity Retrieval for Vertically Pointing Radars

Ulrike Romatschke, Michael Dixon

Published: 2022-01-27
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Using data from the airborne HIAPER Cloud Radar (HCR), a partitioning algorithm (ECCO-V) that provides vertically resolved convectivity and convective vs stratiform radar echo classification is developed for vertically pointing radars. The algorithm is based on the calculation of reflectivity and radial velocity texture fields that measure the horizontal homogeneity of cloud and precipitation [...]

Two decades of changing anthropogenic mercury emissions in Australia: inventory development, trends, and atmospheric implications

Stephen MacFarlane, Jenny A. Fisher, Hannah M. Horowitz, et al.

Published: 2022-01-27
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Environmental Health and Protection

Mercury is a toxic environmental pollutant emitted into the atmosphere by both natural and anthropogenic sources. In Australia, previous estimates of anthropogenic mercury emissions differ by up to a factor of three, with existing inventories either outdated or inaccurate and several lacking Australia-specific input data. Here, we develop a twenty-year inventory of Australian anthropogenic [...]

Using satellites to uncover large methane emissions from landfills

Joannes Dyonisius Maasakkers, Daniel J. Varon, Aldís Elfarsdóttir, et al.

Published: 2021-12-28
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences

As atmospheric methane concentrations increase at record pace, it is critical to identify individual emission sources with high potential for mitigation. Landfills are responsible for large methane emissions that can be readily abated but have been sparsely observed. Here we leverage the synergy between satellite instruments with different spatiotemporal coverage and resolution to detect and [...]

A continuous vertically resolved ozone dataset from the fusion of chemistry climate models with observations using a Bayesian neural network

Matt Amos, Ushnish Sengupta, Paul Young, et al.

Published: 2021-12-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences

Continuous historic datasets of vertically resolved stratospheric ozone, support the case for ozone recovery, are necessary for the running of offline models and increase understanding of the impacts of ozone on the wider atmospheric system. Vertically resolved ozone datasets are typically constructed from multiple satellite, sonde and ground-based measurements that do not provide continuous [...]

Geographically-resolved social cost of anthropogenic emissions accounting for both direct and climate-mediated effects

Jennifer Burney, Geeta G Persad, Jonathan Proctor, et al.

Published: 2021-11-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Sustainability

The magnitude and distribution of physical and societal impacts from long-lived greenhouse gases are insensitive to the emission source location; the same is not true for major co-emitted short-lived pollutants like aerosols. Here we combine novel global climate model simulations with established response functions to show that identical aerosols emitted from different regions (Brazil, China, [...]

Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations version 2.2 (MPTRAC-2.2): Lagrangian transport simulations on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs)

Lars Hoffmann, Paul F. Baumeister, Zhongyin Cai, et al.

Published: 2021-11-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Computer Sciences, Meteorology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Lagrangian models are fundamental tools to study atmospheric transport processes and for practical applications such as dispersion modeling for anthropogenic and natural emission sources. However, conducting large-scale Lagrangian transport simulations with millions of air parcels or more can become numerically rather costly. In this study, we assessed the potential of exploiting graphics [...]

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