Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences

Decomposing the Drivers of Polar Amplification with a Single Column Model.

Matthew Henry, Tim Merlis, Nicholas Lutsko, Brian E.J. Rose

Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The precise mechanisms driving Arctic amplification are still under debate. Previous attribution methods based on top-of-atmosphere energy budgets have assumed all forcings and feedbacks lead to vertically-uniform temperature changes, with any departures from this collected into the lapse-rate feedback. We propose an alternative attribution method using a single column model that accounts for the [...]

Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves

Zhonghua Zheng, Lei Zhao, Keith W. Oleson

Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability

Urban heat waves (UHWs) are strongly associated with socioeconomic impacts. Reliable projections of these extremes are pressingly needed for local actions in the context of extreme event preparedness and mitigation. Such information, however, is not available because current multi-model projections largely lack a representation of urban areas. Here, we use a newly-developed urban climate emulator [...]

Atmospheric thermal convection and strong chaotic fluctuations of global temperature on Earth and on Mars

Alexander Bershadskii

Published: 2020-06-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

It is shown that the atmospheric thermal (buoyancy driven) convection plays the main role in generation of the strong chaotic fluctuations of the global temperature through the Kolmogorov-Bolgiano-Obukhov mechanism (in the frames of the distributed chaos approach). It is valid for the planets with substantial atmosphere such as the Earth and Mars. Direct numerical simulations, the Berkeley Earth [...]

Observation-based Simulations of Humidity and Temperature Using Quantile Regression

Andrew Poppick, Karen A. McKinnon

Published: 2020-05-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

The human impacts of changes in heat events depend on changes in the joint behavior of temperature and humidity. Little is currently known about these complex joint changes, either in observations or projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Further, GCMs do not fully reproduce the observed joint distribution, implying a need for simulation methods that combine information from GCMs [...]

UNSEEN trends: Detecting decadal changes in 100-year precipitation extremes

Timo Kelder, Malte Muller, Louise J. Slater, Tim Marjoribanks, Robert L. Wilby, Christel Prudhomme, Patrik Bohlinger, Laura Ferranti, Thomas Nipen

Published: 2020-05-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Sample sizes of observed climate extremes are typically too small to reliably constrain non-stationary behaviour. To facilitate detection of non-stationarities in 100-year precipitation values over a short period of 35 years (1981-2015), we apply the UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approach, by pooling ensemble members and lead times from the ECMWF seasonal prediction system [...]

Human Health Benefits of the Minamata Convention on Mercury

Yanxu Zhang, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Huanxin Zhang, Shiliang Wu, Long Chen, Shuxiao Wang, Ping Li, Feiyue Wang

Published: 2020-05-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The Minamata Convention is a legally-binding international treaty aimed at reducing the anthropogenic release of mercury, a potent neurotoxin. However, its human health benefit has not been quantified on a global scale. Here we evaluate the Convention’s benefit by a coupled climate-atmosphere-land-ocean-ecosystem model and a human mercury exposure component that considers all food categories. We [...]

A machine learning approach for ozone forecasting and its application for Kennewick, WA

Kai Fan, Brian Lamb, Ranil Dhammapala, Ryan Lamastro, Yunha Lee

Published: 2020-05-13
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Chemical transport models (CTM) are widely used for air quality modeling, but these models miss forecasting some air pollution events, and require a lot of computational power. In Kennewick, WA, elevated O3 episodes can occur during the summer and early fall, but the CTM-based operational forecasting system (AIRPACT) struggles to capture them. This research used the 2015 – 2018 historical [...]

COVID-19-related drop in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in China and corresponding cloud and climate effects

Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Jung-Eun Chu, Eui-Seok Chung, June-Yi Lee

Published: 2020-05-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to massive disruptions of public life on a global scale. To halt the spread of the disease, China temporarily shut down parts of the manufacturing and transportation sectors. Associated anthropogenic aerosol emissions in February 2020 plunged to record lows, causing a temporary improvement of air quality with uncertain effects on cloud formation, atmospheric [...]

Asian monsoon amplifies semi-direct effect of biomass burning aerosols on low cloud formation

Ke Ding, Xin Huang, Aijun Ding, Minghuai Wang, Hang Su, Veli-matti Kerminen, Tuukka Petaja, Zhemin Tan, Zilin Wang, Derong Zhou

Published: 2020-05-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Low clouds play a key role in the Earth-atmosphere energy balance and influence agricultural production and solar-power generation. Smoke aloft has been found to enhance marine stratocu-mulus over the Southeast Atlantic in austral spring through aerosol-cloud interactions, but its role in regions with strong human activities and complex monsoon circulation remains unclear. Here we show that [...]

Macroscopic flow disequilibrium over aeolian dune fields

Andrew Gunn, Phillip Schmutz, Matt Wanker, Doug Edmonds, Ryan Ewing, Douglas Jerolmack

Published: 2020-05-08
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology

Aeolian dune fields are self-organized patterns formed by wind-blown sand. Dunes are topographic roughness elements that impose drag on the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), creating a natural coupling between form and flow. While the steady-state influence of drag on the ABL is well studied, non-equilibrium effects due to roughness transitions are less understood. Here we examine the large-scale [...]

Aerosols bias daily weather prediction

Xin Huang, Aijun Ding

Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Weather prediction is essential to human daily life. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are still subject to substantial forecast bias and rarely consider the impact of atmospheric aerosols, despite of the consensus of aerosols as the most important sources of uncertainty in predicting climate change. Here we show aerosols as an important driver biasing daily temperature [...]

Estimating Submicron Aerosol Mixing State at the Global Scale with Machine Learning and Earth System Modeling

Zhonghua Zheng, Jeffrey H. Curtis, Yu Yao, Jessica T. Gasparik, Valentine G. Anantharaj, Lei Zhao, Matthew West, Nicole Riemer

Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computational Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

This study integrates machine learning and particle-resolved aerosol simulations to develop emulators that predict sub-micron aerosol mixing state indices from the Earth System Model (ESM) simulations. The emulators predict aerosol mixing state using only ESM bulk aerosol species concentrations, which do not by themselves carry mixing state information. Here we used PartMC as the [...]

Predicting outbreak-level tornado counts and casualties from environmental variables

Zoe Schroder, James B. Elsner

Published: 2020-04-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Life Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Environmental variables are used routinely in forecasting when and where an outbreak of tornadoes are likely to occur, but more work is needed to understand how characteristics of severe weather outbreaks vary with the larger scale environmental factors. Here the authors demonstrate a method to quantify `outbreak-level tornado and casualty counts with respect to variations in large-scale [...]

Large-eddy simulation of traffic-related air pollution at a very high-resolution in a mega-city: Evaluation against mobile sensors and insights for influencing factors

Yanxu Zhang, Xingpei Ye, Shibao Wang, Xiaojing He, Lingyao Dong, Ning Zhang, Haikun Wang, Zhongrui Wang, Yun Ma, Lei Wang

Published: 2020-04-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Urban air pollution has tremendous spatial variability at scales ranged from kilometer to meters due to unevenly distributed emission sources, complex flow patterns, and photochemical reactions. However, high-resolution air quality information is not available through traditional approaches such as ground-based measurements and regional air quality models (with typical resolution >1 km). Here [...]

Spontaneous Cyclogenesis without Radiative and Surface-Flux Feedbacks

Argel Ramírez-Reyes, Da Yang

Published: 2020-04-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most intense and feared storms in the world. What physical processes lead to cyclogenesis remains the most mysterious aspect of TC physics. Here, we study spontaneous TC genesis using cloud-resolving simulations over an f-plane with constant sea-surface temperature. Previous studies proposed that spontaneous TC genesis requires either radiative or [...]

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