Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Climate

Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment

Patrick W Keys, Elizabeth A Barnes, Noah S Diffenbaugh, et al.

Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Sustainability

As anthropogenic activities continue to warm the Earth, the fundamental solution of reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains elusive. Given this mitigation gap, global warming may lead to intolerable climate changes as local adaptive capacity is exceeded. Thus, there is emerging interest in solar radiation management, which is the process of deliberately increasing Earth's albedo to cool the [...]

Robust Probabilities of Detection and Quantification Uncertainty for Aerial Methane Detection: Examples for Three Airborne Technologies

Bradley Mark Conrad, David R Tyner, Matthew R Johnson

Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Mechanical Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models

Thorough understanding of probabilities of detection (POD) and quantification uncertainties is fundamentally important when applying aerial measurement technologies as part of alternative means of emission limitation (AMEL) or alternate fugitive emissions management programs (Alt-FEMP), as part of monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) efforts, and in surveys designed to support [...]

Validation of glacial-interglacial rainfall variations in southwest Sulawesi using Mg/Ca and δ18O in speleothems

Alena K Kimbrough, Michael Gagan, Gavin Dunbar, et al.

Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Speleology

Speleothem δ18O is widely used as a proxy for rainfall amount in the tropics on glacial-interglacial to interannual scales. However, uncertainties in the interpretation of this renowned proxy pose a vexing problem in tropical paleoclimatology. Here, we present paired measurements of Mg/Ca and δ18O for multiple stalagmites from southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, that that confirm changes in rainfall [...]

Thermal forcing modulates North American Monsoon intensity

Marcus Lofverstrom, Kaustubh Thirumalai

Published: 2022-06-02
Subjects: Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Understanding the response of monsoon dynamics to climatic forcing is cru- cial for anticipating future shifts in freshwater availability across the global tropics. In this regard, a recent study [1] concludes that precipitation within the core of the North American Monsoon (NAM) should be understood as “convectively enhanced orographic rainfall in a mechanically forced stationary wave, not as a [...]

Paleoclimate controls on lithium enrichment in Great Basin Pliocene-Pleistocene lacustrine clays

Catherine A Gagnon, Kristina Butler, Elizabeth Gaviria, et al.

Published: 2022-05-29
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Other Environmental Sciences, Sedimentology

Terminal lakes are important archives of continental hydroclimate and in some cases contain important economic resources. Here we present an ~3.6 Myr lacustrine carbonate carbon and oxygen stable isotope record from a Great Basin continental drill core. We pair these measurements with bulk lithium concentrations to reveal a relationship between past climate and lithium enrichment in authigenic [...]

Separation of climate models and observations based on daily output using machine learning

Lukas Brunner, Sebastian Sippel

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Climate

Climate models are primary tools to investigate processes in the climate system, to project future changes, and to inform decision makers. The latest generation of models provides simulations of unprecedented complexity and resolution, resulting in increasingly realistic representations of the real climate system. At the same time, there is growing awareness that not all models produce equally [...]

Methane Emissions from the Fossil Fuel Industries of the Russian Federation

Robert L Kleinberg

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Oil, Gas, and Energy

Methane emissions are a major driver of human-induced climate change. Moreover, reduction of the rate of methane emissions is the fastest and least disruptive way to moderate global temperature rise over the next several decades. The production of fossil fuels - principally coal, oil, and natural gas – is an important source of anthropogenic methane. As one of the world’s most important [...]

21st-century stagnation in sand-sea activity

Andrew Gunn, Amy East, Douglas J Jerolmack

Published: 2022-05-03
Subjects: Climate, Geomorphology

Sand seas are vast expanses of Earth’s surface containing large areas of aeolian dunes—topographic patterns manifest from above-threshold winds and a supply of loose sand. Predictions of the role of future climate change for sand-sea activity are sparse and contradictory. Here we examine the impact of climate on all of Earth’s presently-unvegetated sand seas, using ensemble runs of an Earth [...]

Expansion and intensification of the North American Monsoon during the Pliocene

Tripti Bhattacharya, Ran Feng, Jessica Tierney, et al.

Published: 2022-04-14
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Southwestern North America, like many subtropical regions, is predicted to become drier in response to anthropogenic warming. However, during the Pliocene, when carbon dioxide was above pre-industrial levels, multiple lines of evidence suggest that southwestern North America was much wetter. While existing explanations for a wet Pliocene invoke increases in winter rain, recent modeling studies [...]

Abrupt shift to El Niño-like mean state conditions in the tropical Pacific during the Little Ice Age

Ana Prohaska, Alistair Seddon, Bernd Meese, et al.

Published: 2022-03-11
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Hydrology

The mean state of the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere climate, in particular its east-west asymmetry, has profound consequences for regional climates and for the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation variability. Here we present a new high-resolution paleohydrological record using the stable-hydrogen-isotopic composition of terrestrial-lipid biomarkers (δDwax) from a 1,400-year-old lake sedimentary [...]

Interannual variability of the Australian summer monsoon sustained through internal processes: wind-evaporation feedback, dynamical air-sea interaction and soil moisture memory

Shion Sekizawa, Hisashi Nakamura, Yu Kosaka

Published: 2022-02-25
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

In northern Australia (NAUS), mean rainfall during the Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) season exhibits distinct interannual variability despite weak influence from tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The present study investigates mechanisms for the strong and persistent rainfall anomalies throughout the AUSM season. When the AUSM is stronger than normal, the low-level monsoonal [...]

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.

Chahan M. Kropf, Alessio Ciullo, Laura Otth, et al.

Published: 2022-02-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Design of Experiments and Sample Surveys, Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Risk Analysis, Statistical Methodology

Modelling the risk of natural hazards for society, ecosystems, and the economy is subject to strong uncertainties, even more so in the context of a changing climate, evolving societies, growing economies, and declining ecosystems. Here we present a new feature of the climate risk modelling platform CLIMADA which allows to carry out global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. CLIMADA underpins [...]

2021 North American Heatwave Amplified by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions

Samuel Bartusek, Kai Kornhuber, Mingfang Ting

Published: 2022-02-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Heat conditions in North America in summer 2021 exceeded prior heatwaves by margins many would have considered impossible under current climate conditions. Associated severe impacts highlight the need for understanding its physical drivers and relations to climate change, to improve the projection and prediction of future extreme heat risks. Here, we find that slow- and fast-moving components of [...]

Evaluation of changes in dry and wet precipitation extremes in warmer climates using a passive water vapor modelling approach

Marie-Pier Labonté, Timothy M Merlis

Published: 2022-01-22
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Hydroclimatic extremes, such as heavy daily rainfall and dry spells, are expected to intensify under anthropogenic warming. Often, these changes are diagnostically related to thermodynamic increases in humidity with warming. Here, we develop a framework that uses an on-line calculation of the thermodynamically induced changes of the full precipitation distribution with warming in an idealized [...]

Evidences of horizontal urban heat advection in London using 6 years of data from a citizen weather station network

Oscar Brousse, Charles Henry Simpson, Nancy Walker, et al.

Published: 2021-12-05
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography

Recent advances in citizen weather station (CWS) networks, with data accessible via crowd-sourcing, provide relevant climatic information to urban scientists and decision makers. In particular, CWS can provide long-term measurements of urban heat and valuable information on spatio-temporal heterogeneity related to horizontal heat advection. In this study, we make the first compilation of a [...]

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