Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Climate

Enhanced hydrological cycle increases ocean heat uptake and moderates transient climate sensitivity

Maofeng Liu, Gabriel Vecchi, Brian Soden, Wenchang Yang, Bosong Zhang

Published: 2020-11-25
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

The large-scale moistening of the atmosphere in response to the greenhouse gas increases tends to amplify the existing patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) which, in turn, amplifies the spatial contrast in sea surface salinity (SSS). We propose that subtropical surface salinification due to the intensified hydrological cycle provides a buoyancy sink that increases the rate of ocean [...]

A global Bayesian temperature calibration for lacustrine brGDGTs

Pablo Martinez Sosa, Jess Tierney, Ioana Cristina Stefanescu, Emily Dearing Crampton-Flood, Bryan N Shuman, Cody Routson

Published: 2020-11-13
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate

Despite widespread use of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) for paleo-temperature reconstruction, no global calibration for their application in lakes has been generated since improved analytical methods have allowed for the separation of the structural isomers. This is a substantial obstacle for the application of this tool as soil calibrations underestimate temperature [...]

ENSO Drives Child Undernutrition in the Global Tropics

Jesse K Anttila-Hughes, Amir Sultan Jina, Gordon C McCord

Published: 2020-11-12
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Other Environmental Sciences, Public Health, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sustainability

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a principal component of global climate variability known to influence a host of social and economic outcomes, but its systematic effects on human health remain poorly understood. We estimate ENSO’s association with child nutrition at global scale by combining variation in ENSO intensity from 1986-2018 with children’s height and weight from 186 surveys [...]

The Fingerprint of Anthropogenic Warming on Global Agriculture

Frances Moore

Published: 2020-10-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistical Methodology

A large literature on “detection and attribution” has now demonstrated the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on a range of physical climate variables. Social and economic outcomes are known to be sensitive to climate change, but directly connecting observed changes to anthropogenic forcing is challenging. Here I demonstrate that changes in global productivity of maize, wheat, [...]

A data assimilation approach to last millennium temperature field reconstruction using a limited high-sensitivity proxy network

Jonathan King, Kevin Anchukaitis, Jess Tierney, Greg Hakim, Julien Emile-Geay, Feng Zhu, Rob Wilson

Published: 2020-10-23
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Paleoclimate field reconstructions using data assimilation commonly employ large proxy networks, which are often composed of records that have a complex range of sensitivities to the target climate field. This can introduce biases into reconstructions or decrease overall skill. Smaller networks of highly-sensitive proxies provide an alternative, but have not been extensively used for assimilation [...]

Leaf trait plasticity alters competitive ability and functioning of simulated tropical trees in response to elevated carbon dioxide

Marlies Kovenock, Charles D. Koven, Ryan G. Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Abigail L. S. Swann

Published: 2020-10-21
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology

The response of tropical ecosystems to elevated carbon dioxide (CO$_2$) remains a critical uncertainty in projections of future climate. Here we investigate how leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO$_2$ alters projections of tropical forest competitive dynamics and functioning. We use vegetation demographic model simulations to quantify how plasticity in leaf mass per area and leaf [...]

Identifying and correcting the World War 2 warm anomaly in sea surface temperature measurements

DUO CHAN, Peter Huybers

Published: 2020-08-20
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Most foregoing estimates of historical sea surface temperature (SST) feature warmer global-average SSTs during World War 2 well in excess of climate-model predictions. This warm anomaly, referred to as the WW2WA, was hypothesized to arise from incomplete corrections of biases associated with rapid changes in measurement instruments and protocols. Using linear mixed-effects methods we confirm [...]

Correcting 19th and 20th century sea surface temperatures improves simulations of Atlantic hurricane activity

DUO CHAN, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, Peter Huybers

Published: 2020-08-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Changes in the statistics of North Atlantic hurricanes are known to depend upon the pattern of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Dynamical and statistical models are key tools to predict future hurricane activity, with our confidence in this application rooted in the models’ ability to skillfully reproduce hurricane variations over the past 30-40 years, when satellite data allows [...]

Changes in temperature and rainfall extremes across East Asia in the CMIP5 ensemble

jeong-soo park, Youngsaeng Lee, Jayeong Paek

Published: 2020-07-22
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

We analyze annual extremes of daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature and of daily rainfall in East Asia and the Korean peninsula. This study made intensive use of the simulation data available from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model intercomparison Project Phase 5) multimodels in historical and future experiments up to year 2100, employing three different radiative forcings: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, [...]

Alkenone isotopes show evidence of active carbon concentrating mechanisms in coccolithophores as aqueous carbon dioxide concentrations fall below 7 µmolL-1

Marcus Peter Sebastian Badger

Published: 2020-07-15
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Coccolithophores and other haptophyte algae acquire the carbon required for metabolic processes from the water in which they live. Whether carbon is actively moved across the cell membrane via a carbon concentrating mechanism, or passively through diffusion, is important for haptophyte biochemistry. The possible utilisation of carbon concentrating mechanisms also has the potential to overprint [...]

Surprising increase in aerosol amid widespread decline in pollution over India during the COVID19 Lockdown

Satyndera Kumar Pandey, Vinoj V

Published: 2020-07-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Using ground-based and satellite observation along with aerosol reanalysis products, we show a widespread reduction in aerosol loading over the Indian subcontinent during the COVID19 lockdown. In terms of aerosol optical depth (AOD), loading has reduced up to 40 % over the most populated region of India. However, the central part of India shows an unexpected increase (~+20 %) in aerosol optical [...]

Deep spatial transformers for autoregressive data-driven forecasting of geophysical turbulence

Ashesh Kumar Chattopadhyay, Mustafa Mustafa, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Karthik Kashinath

Published: 2020-07-05
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Computer Sciences, Dynamical Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geophysics and Seismology, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics

A deep spatial transformer based encoder-decoder model has been developed to autoregressively predict the time evolution of the upper layers stream function of a two-layered quasi-geostrophic (QG) system without any information about the lower layers stream function. The spatio-temporal complexity of QG flow is comparable to the complexity of 500hPa Geopotential Height (Z500) of fully coupled [...]

Northland: the climate of an Earth with a hemispheric continent

Marysa M. Lague, Marianne Pietschnig, Sarah Ragen, Timothy A Smith, David S Battisti

Published: 2020-06-22
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

From a climate perspective, land differs from the ocean in several fundamental physical ways, including albedo, heat capacity, amount of water storage, and differences in resistance to evaporation. These differences alter the surface energy and water budgets over land compared to ocean, with implications for both surface climate and atmospheric circulation. In this study, we use an idealized [...]

Tropical cyclone response to anthropogenic warming as simulated by a mesoscale-resolving global coupled earth system model

Axel Timmermann, Jung-Eun Chu, Sun-Seon Lee, Christian Wengel, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi

Published: 2020-06-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme storm systems that form over warm tropical oceans. Along their track TCs can mix up cold water which can further impact their development. Due to the adoption of lower ocean model resolutions, previous modeling studies on the TC response to greenhouse warming underestimate such oceanic feedbacks. To address the robustness of TC projections in the presence of [...]

Seasonal impact-based mapping of compound hazards

John Hillier, Richard Dixon

Published: 2020-06-17
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Mathematics, Multivariate Analysis, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Impact-based, seasonal mapping of compound hazards is proposed. It is pragmatic, identifies phenomena to drive the research agenda, produces outputs relevant to stakeholders, and could be applied to many hazards globally. Illustratively, flooding and wind damage can co-occur, worsening their joint impact, yet where wet and windy seasons combine has not yet been systematically mapped. Here, [...]

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