Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Climate

An open workflow for the study of unseen weather extremes

Timo Kelder, Tim Marjoribanks, Louise Slater, et al.

Published: 2021-09-10
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing

Ensemble members from weather and climate predictions can be used to generate large samples of simulated weather events, allowing the estimation of extreme (hitherto unseen) events. Here, we provide a protocol and open workflow for applying the ‘UNSEEN’ method for hydro-climatic extremes globally, based on Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) seasonal predictions but also considering other [...]

High interstadial sea levels over the past 420ka from Huon terraces (Papua New Guinea)

Gino de Gelder, Laurent Husson, Anne-Morwenn Pastier, et al.

Published: 2021-09-06
Subjects: Climate, Geology, Geomorphology, Oceanography, Tectonics and Structure

The history of sea level across the Quaternary is essential for assessing past and future climate and geodynamics. Global sea-level reconstructions are typically derived from oxygen isotope curves, but require calibration with geological constraints that are particularly scarce prior to the last glacial cycle (>130 ka). The exceptionally well-preserved coral reef terrace sequence in the Huon [...]

Extreme smog challenge of India intensified by increasing lower tropospheric stability

Ritesh Gautam, Piyushkumar Patel, Manoj Singh, et al.

Published: 2021-08-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate

Extreme smog in India widely impacts air quality in late autumn and winter months. While the links between emissions and air quality are well-recognized, the association of smog and its intensification with climatic trends in the lower troposphere, where aerosol pollution and its radiative effects manifest, are not understood well. Here we use long-term satellite data to show a significant [...]

Safety and Belonging in the Field: A Checklist for Educators

Sarah E Greene, Gwen S. Antell, Jake Atterby, et al.

Published: 2021-08-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Cosmochemistry, Earth Sciences, Education, Environmental Education, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Fresh Water Studies, Geochemistry, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Higher Education, Human Geography, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Meteorology, Mineral Physics, Natural Resource Economics, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Geography, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Planetary Sciences, Outdoor Education, Paleobiology, Paleontology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Biogeochemistry, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Glaciology, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Mineral Physics, Planetary Sciences, Planetary Sedimentology, Remote Sensing, Sedimentology, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Soil Science, Spatial Science, Speleology, Stratigraphy, Sustainability, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology, Water Resource Management

Ensuring taught fieldwork is a positive, generative, collective, and valuable experience for all participants requires considerations beyond course content. To guarantee safety and belonging, participants’ identities (backgrounds and protected characteristics) must be considered as a part of fieldwork planning and implementation. Furthermore, getting fieldwork right is an important step in [...]

Does ENSO significantly affect rice production in Indonesia? A preliminary study using computational time-series approach

Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho, Ferio Brahmana, Katarina Evelyn Permata Herho, et al.

Published: 2021-08-15
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

ENSO is a phenomenon that is suspected to influence rice production in Indonesia. In this study, we try to find a direct correlation between ENSO and rice production in this region by using various latest computational time series methods, such as Dynamic Time Warping, Wavelet Coherence, and Bayesian Structural Time Series to quantify the statistical relationship between the Multivariate ENSO [...]

Imprint of the Pacific Walker Circulation in global precipitation δ18O

Georgina Maja Falster, Bronwen Konecky, Midhun Madhavan, et al.

Published: 2021-07-30
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Characterising variability in the global water cycle is fundamental to predicting impacts of future climate change; understanding the role of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) in the regional expression of global water cycle changes is critical to understanding this variability. Water isotopes are ideal tracers of the role of the PWC in global water cycling, because they retain information [...]

Creating a climate changed future with the sea level rise interactive- fiction game ‘Lagos2199’

Patrick Keys, Matthew P Keys

Published: 2021-07-26
Subjects: Climate, Education, Environmental Education, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Instructional Media Design, International and Area Studies, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Science and Mathematics Education, Sustainability

Story-based futures serve an important role in climate change scenario development. Stories are particularly useful in exploring sea level rise possibilities, since we know many coastal areas are specifically vulnerable to accelerating rises in sea level. This discrete change in coastline is different from most other climate change impacts, and offers a clear basis for scientifically-informed, [...]

Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability

Keith Bradley Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, et al.

Published: 2021-06-12
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how climate variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble of climate change projections conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2 to examine [...]

What sets aeolian dune height?

Andrew Gunn, Giampietro Casasanta, Luca Di Liberto, et al.

Published: 2021-05-24
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy

Earth's major sand seas are often populated with giant dunes, up to hundreds of meters in height and kilometers in wavelength. These massive sediment piles, visible from space on our planet and across the Solar System, indicate that conditions for sand transport have persisted for millenia. Unraveling how giant dunes form therefore has implications for understanding atmospheric flows and climatic [...]

Causal and Predictive Analysis of Climate Change Using Granger Causality

Ben Goertzel, Nejc Znidar, Misgana Bayetta, et al.

Published: 2021-05-21
Subjects: Climate

Current climate simulation models provide valuable insights but are highly complicated, with numerous parameters, making them complex for assessing the causal impact of anthropogenic and natural factors on global temperatures. We applied multivariate Granger causality to investigate how combinations of forcings affect Earth's surface and ocean temperatures. Clear causal impact was found due to [...]

The influence of rock uplift rate on the formation and preservation of individual marine terraces during multiple sea level stands

Luca Malatesta, Noah J. Finnegan, Kimberly L. Huppert, et al.

Published: 2021-05-13
Subjects: Climate, Geology, Geomorphology

Marine terraces are a cornerstone for the study of paleo sea level and crustal deformation. Commonly, individual erosive marine terraces are attributed to unique sea level high-stands. This stems from early reasoning that erosive marine platforms could only be significantly widened at the beginning of an interglacial. However, this implies that wave erosion is insignificant during the vast [...]

CO2 capture by pumping surface acidity to the deep ocean

Michael Tyka, John C Platt, Christopher Van Arsdale

Published: 2021-04-30
Subjects: Chemical Engineering, Climate, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The majority of IPCC scenarios call for active CO2 removal (CDR) to remain below 2oC of warm- ing. On geological timescales, ocean uptake regulates atmospheric CO2 concentration, with two homeostats driving CO2 uptake: dissolution of deep ocean calcite deposits and terrestrial weathering of silicate rocks, acting on 1ka to 100ka timescales, respectively. Many current ocean-based CDR proposals [...]

Localised economic impacts from high temperature disruption days under climate change

Tim Summers, Erik Mackie, Risa Ueno, et al.

Published: 2021-04-22
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Studies

Most studies into the effects of climate change have headline results in the form of a global change in mean temperature. More useful for businesses and governments however are measures of the economic impact, either direct or indirect. We have addressed this by examining how the frequency of exceeding a daily mean temperature threshold changes, defined as “disruption days”, as it is often this [...]

A Hydrologist’s Guide to Open Science

Caitlyn A Hall, Sheila M. Saia, Andrea Popp, et al.

Published: 2021-04-22
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Water Resource Management

Hydrologic research that is open, accessible, reusable, and reproducible will have the largest impact on the scientific community and broader society. While more and more members of the hydrology community and key hydrology organizations are embracing open science practices, technical (e.g., limited coding experience), resource (e.g., open access fees), and social (e.g., fear of being scooped) [...]

A deep-learning estimate of the decadal trends in the Southern Ocean carbon storage

Varvara E Zemskova, Tai-Long He, Zirui Wan, et al.

Published: 2021-04-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Uptake of atmospheric carbon by the ocean, especially at high latitudes, plays an important role in offsetting anthropogenic emissions. At the surface of the Southern Ocean south of 30 degrees S, the ocean carbon uptake, which had been weakening in 1990s, strengthened in the 2000s. However, sparseness of in-situ measurements in the ocean interior make it difficult to compute changes in carbon [...]

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