Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Climate

Deep spatial transformers for autoregressive data-driven forecasting of geophysical turbulence

Ashesh Kumar Chattopadhyay, Mustafa Mustafa, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Karthik Kashinath

Published: 2020-07-05
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Computer Sciences, Dynamical Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geophysics and Seismology, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics

A deep spatial transformer based encoder-decoder model has been developed to autoregressively predict the time evolution of the upper layers stream function of a two-layered quasi-geostrophic (QG) system without any information about the lower layers stream function. The spatio-temporal complexity of QG flow is comparable to the complexity of 500hPa Geopotential Height (Z500) of fully coupled [...]

Terrestrial evaporation and global climate: lessons from Northland, a planet with a hemispheric continent

Marysa M. Lague, Marianne Pietschnig, Sarah Ragen, Timothy A Smith, David S Battisti

Published: 2020-06-22
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

From a climate perspective, land differs from the ocean in several fundamental physical ways, including albedo, heat capacity, amount of water storage, and differences in resistance to evaporation. These differences alter the surface energy and water budgets over land compared to ocean, with implications for both surface climate and atmospheric circulation. In this study, we use an idealized [...]

Tropical cyclone response to anthropogenic warming as simulated by a mesoscale-resolving global coupled earth system model

Axel Timmermann, Jung-Eun Chu, Sun-Seon Lee, Christian Wengel, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi

Published: 2020-06-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme storm systems that form over warm tropical oceans. Along their track TCs can mix up cold water which can further impact their development. Due to the adoption of lower ocean model resolutions, previous modeling studies on the TC response to greenhouse warming underestimate such oceanic feedbacks. To address the robustness of TC projections in the presence of [...]

Seasonal impact-based mapping of compound hazards

John Hillier, Richard Dixon

Published: 2020-06-17
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Mathematics, Multivariate Analysis, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Impact-based, seasonal mapping of compound hazards is proposed. It is pragmatic, identifies phenomena to drive the research agenda, produces outputs relevant to stakeholders, and could be applied to many hazards globally. Illustratively, flooding and wind damage can co-occur, worsening their joint impact, yet where wet and windy seasons combine has not yet been systematically mapped. Here, [...]

Is Net Zero by 2050 Possible?

John Deutch

Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Achieving Net Zero 2050 does not assure complying with a global warming temperature ceiling. The U.S. might achieve NZ(2050); the world almost certainly will not. For the U.S. to achieve NZ(2050) requires a massive transition of the economy, which is extremely unlikely.

Heat does not physically flow in the ways assumed by greenhouse-warming theory

Peter L Ward

Published: 2020-06-06
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology

Heat is currently defined as an amount of thermal energy flowing each second per unit area. Temperature is assumed to result from the net amount of heat flowing—the sum of all radiative forcings. Yet direct and unambiguous observations of Nature show that macroscopic temperature of solid matter results from a very broad spectrum of sub-microscopic oscillations of all the bonds holding matter [...]

Antarctic elevation drives hemispheric asymmetry in polar lapse-rate climatology and feedback

Lily Hahn, Kyle C Armour, David S Battisti, Aaron Donohoe, Andrew Pauling, Cecilia Bitz

Published: 2020-06-06
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The lapse-rate feedback is the dominant driver of stronger warming in the Arctic than the Antarctic in simulations with increased CO2. While Antarctic surface elevation has been implicated in promoting a weaker Antarctic lapse-rate feedback, the mechanisms in which elevation impacts the lapse-rate feedback are still unclear. Here we suggest that weaker Antarctic warming under CO2 forcing stems [...]

Observation-based Simulations of Humidity and Temperature Using Quantile Regression

Andrew Poppick, Karen A. McKinnon

Published: 2020-05-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

The human impacts of changes in heat events depend on changes in the joint behavior of temperature and humidity. Little is currently known about these complex joint changes, either in observations or projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Further, GCMs do not fully reproduce the observed joint distribution, implying a need for simulation methods that combine information from GCMs [...]

RECENT RAPID SEA LEVEL RISE IN DUBLIN BAY BASED ON TIDE GAUGE ANALYSIS

Amin Shoari Nejad, Andrew Parnell, Alice Greene, Brian P Kelleher, Gerard McCarthy

Published: 2020-05-28
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences, Statistics and Probability

We analysed tide gauges at Dublin port and its environs over the period 1938-2018. With three different tide gauges in the vicinity of the main Dublin port gauge, we merged the data sets and validated them against each other. The recordings of all four tide gauges were found to be in good agreement between 2003-2015, though this was markedly less so from 2016 to the present. We estimate the sea [...]

UNSEEN trends: Detecting decadal changes in 100-year precipitation extremes

Timo Kelder, Malte Muller, Louise J. Slater, Tim Marjoribanks, Robert L. Wilby, Christel Prudhomme, Patrik Bohlinger, Laura Ferranti, Thomas Nipen

Published: 2020-05-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Sample sizes of observed climate extremes are typically too small to reliably constrain non-stationary behaviour. To facilitate detection of non-stationarities in 100-year precipitation values over a short period of 35 years (1981-2015), we apply the UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approach, by pooling ensemble members and lead times from the ECMWF seasonal prediction system [...]

A multi-control climate policy process for a trusted decision maker

Henri F. Drake, Ronald L. Rivest, John Deutch, Alan Edelman

Published: 2020-05-25
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability

Persistent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions threaten global climate goals and have prompted consideration of climate controls supplementary to emissions mitigation. We present an idealized model of optimally-controlled climate change, which is complementary to simpler analytical models and more comprehensive Integrated Assessment Models. We show that the four methods of controlling climate damage– [...]

Evaporative Resistance is of Equal Importance as Surface Albedo in High Latitude Surface Temperatures Due to Cloud Feedbacks

Jinhyuk Kim, Marysa M. Lague, Sam Pennypacker, Eliza Joy Dawson, Abigail L. S. Swann

Published: 2020-05-25
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Arctic vegetation is known to influence Arctic surface temperatures through albedo. However, it is less clear how plant evaporative resistance and albedo independently influence surface climate at high latitudes. We use surface properties derived from two common Arctic tree types to simulate the climate response to a change in land surface albedo and evaporative resistance in factorial [...]

Recent water mass changes reveal mechanisms of ocean warming

Jan Zika, Jonathan Gregory, Elaine McDonagh, Alice Marzocchi, Louis Clement

Published: 2020-05-19
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Over 90% of the build up of additional heat in the earth system over recent decades is contained in the ocean. Since 2006 new observational programs have revealed heterogeneous patterns of ocean heat content change. It is unclear how much of this heterogeneity is due to heat being added to and mixed within the ocean leading to material changes in water mass properties or due to changes in [...]

Human Health Benefits of the Minamata Convention on Mercury

Yanxu Zhang, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Huanxin Zhang, Shiliang Wu, Long Chen, Shuxiao Wang, Ping Li, Feiyue Wang

Published: 2020-05-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The Minamata Convention is a legally-binding international treaty aimed at reducing the anthropogenic release of mercury, a potent neurotoxin. However, its human health benefit has not been quantified on a global scale. Here we evaluate the Convention’s benefit by a coupled climate-atmosphere-land-ocean-ecosystem model and a human mercury exposure component that considers all food categories. We [...]

Increasing economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming

Gustavo Naumann, Carmelo Cammalleri, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Luc Feyen

Published: 2020-05-13
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics

While climate change will alter the distribution in time and space of water, quantifications of drought risk in view of global warming remain little explored. Here, we show that in Europe drought damages could strongly increase with global warming and cause a strong regional imbalance in future drought impacts. In the absence of climate action (4°C in 2100 and no adaptation) annual drought losses [...]

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