Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Climate

Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited

Jessica Erin Tierney, Jiang Zhu, Jonathan King, Steven Brewster Malevich, Gregory Hakim, Christopher Poulsen

Published: 2019-12-26
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), one of the best-studied paleoclimatic intervals, offers a prime opportunity to investigate how the climate system responds to changes in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the cryosphere. Previous work has sought to constrain the magnitude and pattern of glacial cooling from paleothermometers, but the uneven distribution of the proxies, as well as their uncertainties, has [...]

Stronger Atlantic hurricanes: Validating Elsner et al. (2008)

James Elsner

Published: 2019-12-04
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Using satellite derived wind speed estimates from tropical cyclones over the 25-year period 1981--2006, Elsner et al. (2008) showed the strongest tropical cyclones getting stronger. They related the increasing intensity to rising ocean temperatures consistent with theory. Oceans continued to warm since that paper was published so the intensity of the strongest cyclones should have continued [...]

An interpreted language implementation of the Vaganov-Shashkin tree-ring proxy system model

Kevin Anchukaitis, Michael N Evans, Malcolm Hughes, Eugene Vaganov

Published: 2019-12-04
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

We describe the implementation of the Vaganov-Shashkin tree-ring growth model (VSM) in MATLAB. VSM, originally written in Fortran, mimics subdaily and daily resolution processes of cambial growth as a function of soil moisture, air temperature, and insolation, with environmental forcing modeled as the principle of limiting factors. The re-implementation in a high level interpreted language, [...]

The economic implications of using a truly preindustrial climate baseline

Dmitry Yumashev, Christopher M Brierley

Published: 2019-12-04
Subjects: Climate, Geography, Human Geography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences

The pervasive impacts of climate change can result in scientific decisions having unforeseen societal implications. To demonstrate this, we explore the global and regional economic implications of adopting an earlier preindustrial baseline of 1400-1800 for climate policy targets instead of the commonly used early industrial period of 1850-1900 for which we have observational data. Because of [...]

Fossil fuel combustion is driving indoor CO2 toward levels harmful to human cognition

Kristopher Karnauskas, Shelly Miller, Anna Schapiro

Published: 2019-12-03
Subjects: Climate, Cognitive Neuroscience, Life Sciences, Neuroscience and Neurobiology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Human activities are elevating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to levels unprecedented in human history. The majority of anticipated impacts of anthropogenic CO2 emissions are mediated by climate warming. Recent experimental studies in the fields of indoor air quality and cognitive psychology and neuroscience, however, have revealed significant direct effects of indoor CO2 levels on [...]

A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula

Armand Hernández, Guiomar Sánchez-López, Sergi Pla-Rabes, Laia Comas-Bru, Andrew Parnell, Niamh Cahill, Adelina Geyer, Ricardo M Trigo, Santiago Giralt

Published: 2019-11-27
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major atmospheric mode that controls winter European climate variability because its strength and phase determine regional temperature, precipitation and storm tracks. The NAO spatial structure and associated climatic impacts over Europe are not stationary making it crucial to understanding its past evolution in order to improve the predictability of [...]

Wind-driven evolution of the North Pacific subpolar gyre over the last deglaciation

William R Gray, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, James W.B. Rae, Andrea Burke, Ruza Ivanovic, William H.G. Roberts, David Ferreira, Paul J Valdes

Published: 2019-11-27
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

North Pacific atmospheric and oceanic circulations are key missing pieces in our understanding of the reorganisation of the global climate system since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Here, using a basin-wide compilation of planktic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes, we show that the North Pacific subpolar gyre extended ~3° further south during the LGM, consistent with sea surface temperature and [...]

Methane, Monsoons, and Modulation of Millennial-scale Climate

Kaustubh Thirumalai, Steven C. Clemens, Judson Partin

Published: 2019-11-20
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Speleology

Earths orbital geometry exerts a profound influence on climate by regulating changes in incoming solar radiation. Superimposed on orbitally-paced climate change, Pleistocene records reveal substantial millennial-scale variability characterized by trends, tipping points, and rapid swings. However, the extent to which orbital forcing modulates the amplitude and timing of these millennial variations [...]

Coherent streamflow variability in Monsoon Asia over the past eight centuries---links to oceanic drivers

Hung Tan Thai Nguyen, Sean W.D. Turner, Brendan Martin Buckley, Stefano Galelli

Published: 2019-11-13
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The Monsoon Asia region is home to ten of the world’s biggest rivers, supporting the lives of 1.7 billion people who rely on streamflow for water, energy, and food. Yet, a synoptic understanding of multi-centennial streamflow variability for this region is lacking. Here we produce the first large scale streamflow reconstruction over Monsoon Asia (63 stations in 16 countries), using a novel [...]

Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Current are synchronized

Tsubasa Kohyama, Hiroaki Miura, Shoichiro Kido

Published: 2019-11-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are shown to be synchronized for the decadal time scale. This synchronization, which we refer to as the Boundary Current Synchronization (BCS), is associated with meridional migrations of the atmospheric jet stream. The singular value decomposition (SVD) between SST and zonal wind shows that, within the context of known climate [...]

Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System

Riley X Brady, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Stephen G. Yeager, Matthew C. Long, Keith Lindsay

Published: 2019-10-10
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to the natural upwelling of corrosive waters that affect ecosystem function. Marine resource managers in the CCS could benefit from advanced knowledge of ocean acidity on multiyear timescales. We use a novel suite of retrospective forecasts with an initialized [...]

Non-stationary teleconnection between the Pacific Ocean and Arctic sea ice

David Brooking Bonan, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth

Published: 2019-10-08
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Over the last 40 years observations show a teleconnection between summertime Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures and September Arctic sea-ice extent. However, the short satellite observation record has made it difficult to further examine this relationship. Here, we use 30 fully-coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project to [...]

The North American hydrologic cycle through the last deglaciation

Juan Lora, Daniel Enrique Ibarra

Published: 2019-10-01
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

While the climate evolution of North America during the last deglaciation has received considerable attention, few detailed model–data comparisons of the deglacial hydroclimate have been conducted at the continental scale. Here we use a transient climate simulation of the last deglaciation and a synthesis of hydroclimate proxies from across the continent to broadly assess the moisture budget and [...]

Holocene relative sea-level changes and glacial isostatic adjustment of the U.S. Atlantic coast

Simon Engelhart, W. Richard Peltier, Benjamin Horton

Published: 2019-09-30
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Glaciology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure

The first quality-controlled Holocene sea-level database for the U.S. Atlantic coast has been constructed from 686 sea-level indicators. The database documents a decreasing rate of relative sea-level (RSL) rise through time with no evidence of sea level being above present in the middle to late Holocene. The highest rates of RSL rise are found in the mid-Atlantic region. We employ the database to [...]

Skillful seasonal prediction of key carbon cycle components: NPP and fire risk

Philip E Bett, Karina Williams, Chantelle Burton, Adam Scaife, Andrew Wiltshire, Richard Gilham

Published: 2019-09-19
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Seasonal forecasts of global CO₂ concentrations rely on the well-documented relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), combined with estimated anthropogenic emissions. Here, we investigate the skill of the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system for two carbon cycle processes that underlie the global CO₂–ENSO relationship: the impact of meteorological conditions on CO₂ uptake by [...]

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