Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Dynamical Systems

Flow-dependent and dynamical systems analyses of predictability of the Pacific-North American summertime circulation

Ebrahim Nabizadeh, Sandro W Lubis, Pedram Hassanzadeh

Published: 2021-09-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Dynamical Systems, Earth Sciences

Forecast skills of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and intrinsic predictability can be flow-dependent, e.g., different among weather regimes. Here, we have examined the predictability of distinct Pacific-North American weather regimes in June-September. Four weather regimes are identified using a self-organizing map analysis of daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies, and are [...]

The impact of intermittency on bed load sediment transport

Santiago J. Benavides, Eric A. Deal, Matthew Rushlow, et al.

Published: 2021-02-09
Subjects: Dynamical Systems, Geomorphology, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

Sediment transport by wind or water near the threshold of grain motion is dominated by rare transport events. This intermittency makes it difficult to calibrate sediment transport laws, or to define an unambiguous threshold for grain entrainment, both of which are crucial for predicting sediment transport rates. We present a model that captures this intermittency and show that the noisy [...]

Deep spatial transformers for autoregressive data-driven forecasting of geophysical turbulence

Ashesh Kumar Chattopadhyay, Mustafa Mustafa, Pedram Hassanzadeh, et al.

Published: 2020-07-05
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Computer Sciences, Dynamical Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geophysics and Seismology, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics

A deep spatial transformer based encoder-decoder model has been developed to autoregressively predict the time evolution of the upper layers stream function of a two-layered quasi-geostrophic (QG) system without any information about the lower layers stream function. The spatio-temporal complexity of QG flow is comparable to the complexity of 500hPa Geopotential Height (Z500) of fully coupled [...]

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