Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Meteorology

An open workflow for the study of unseen weather extremes

Timo Kelder, Tim Marjoribanks, Louise Slater, et al.

Published: 2021-09-10
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing

Ensemble members from weather and climate predictions can be used to generate large samples of simulated weather events, allowing the estimation of extreme (hitherto unseen) events. Here, we provide a protocol and open workflow for applying the ‘UNSEEN’ method for hydro-climatic extremes globally, based on Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) seasonal predictions but also considering other [...]

Fire-Generated Tornadic Vortices

Neil Lareau, Nicholas J Nauslar, Evan Bentley, et al.

Published: 2021-08-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology

Fire-generated tornadic vortices (FGTVs) linked to pyrocumulonimbi (pyroCb) are a potentially deadly, yet poorly understood and seldom observed wildfire hazard. In this study we use radar and satellite observations to examine three FGTV cases during high impact wildfires during the 2020 fire season in California, USA. We establish that these FGTVs each exhibit tornado-strength anticyclonic [...]

Safety and Belonging in the Field: A Checklist for Educators

Sarah E Greene, Gwen S. Antell, Jake Atterby, et al.

Published: 2021-08-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Cosmochemistry, Earth Sciences, Education, Environmental Education, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Fresh Water Studies, Geochemistry, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Higher Education, Human Geography, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Meteorology, Mineral Physics, Natural Resource Economics, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Geography, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Planetary Sciences, Outdoor Education, Paleobiology, Paleontology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Biogeochemistry, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Glaciology, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Mineral Physics, Planetary Sciences, Planetary Sedimentology, Remote Sensing, Sedimentology, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Soil Science, Spatial Science, Speleology, Stratigraphy, Sustainability, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology, Water Resource Management

Ensuring taught fieldwork is a positive, generative, collective, and valuable experience for all participants requires considerations beyond course content. To guarantee safety and belonging, participants’ identities (backgrounds and protected characteristics) must be considered as a part of fieldwork planning and implementation. Furthermore, getting fieldwork right is an important step in [...]

Evaluating Short-Term Spatio-Temporal Tropospheric Variability in Multi-Temporal SAR Interferograms Using LES Models

Fengming Hu, Ramon F. Hanssen, Pier Siebesma, et al.

Published: 2021-07-13
Subjects: Aerospace Engineering, Atmospheric Sciences, Computational Engineering, Earth Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Meteorology, Multivariate Analysis, Signal Processing

Atmospheric delay has a significant impact on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry, inducing spatial phase errors and decorrelation in extreme weather condition. For Low Earth Orbit (LEO) SAR missions, the atmosphere can be considered as being spatio-temporally frozen due to the short integration time. Geosynchronous (GEO) SAR missions, however, have short revisit times and extensive [...]

On the statistical learning analysis of rain gauge data over the Natuna Islands

Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho, Faiz Rohman Fajary, Dasapta Erwin Irawan

Published: 2021-06-08
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

This article presents state-of-the-art statistical learning methods for analyzing rain gauge data over the Natuna Islands. By using shape preserving piecewise cubic interpolation, we managed to interpolate 671 null values from the daily precipitation data. Dominant periodicity analysis of daily precipitation signals using Lomb-Scargle Power Spectral Density shows annual, intraseasonal, and [...]

Why is the Hurricane Season So Sharp?

Wenchang Yang, Tsung-Lin Hsieh, Gabriel Vecchi

Published: 2021-04-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Understanding tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is a problem of profound societal significance and deep scientific interest. The annual cycle is the biggest radiatively-forced signal in TC variability, presenting a key test of our understanding and modeling of TC activity. TCs over the North Atlantic (NA) basin, which are usually called hurricanes, have a sharp peak in the annual cycle, with more [...]

Hydro-Meteorological Aspects of the 2021 South Kalimantan Flood: Topography, Tides, and Precipitation

Munawir Bintang Pratama, Rafida Multazima Withono, Ismail Naufal Azkiarizqi

Published: 2021-03-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology

The 2021 South Kalimantan flood was recorded as the most serious ever to have taken place in the province. It occurred due to high-intensity rain during the period 10-19 January, accompanied by a spring tide. This study provides an overview of the disaster, with reference to the hydro-meteorological conditions (topography, tides, and precipitation). The method used was the analysis of the [...]

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020

Philip Bett, Gill Martin, Nick Dunstone, et al.

Published: 2021-02-27
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June, May–June–July (MJJ) and June–July–August (JJA) 2020 are presented, following successful forecasts in previous years. The 3-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) index, which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression. The June rainfall forecasts for the [...]

A study of nowcast of Indian Monsoon Rainfall over Mumbai using Rainymotion

Kunal Anil Rustagi, Vipul Gote, Mahesh Mote, et al.

Published: 2020-12-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing

Since ages, we know that rainfall is a very important factor in deciding the fate of a country. In an agrarian country like India where more than 70% of rural households are dependent on agriculture, agriculture contributes to nearly 17% GDP of the country and is directly dependent on rainfall. Excessive rainfall can lead to floods, landslides, soil erosion and no rainfall can lead to [...]

Idealized forecast-assimilation experiments for convective-scale Numerical Weather Prediction

Thomas Kent, Luca Cantarello, Gordon Inverarity, et al.

Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

To aid understanding of and facilitate research into forecast-assimilation systems of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), idealized models that embody essential characteristics of these systems can be used. This article concerns the use of such an idealized fluid model of convective-scale NWP in inexpensive data assimilation (DA) experiments. The forecast model, introduced in Kent et al (2017), [...]

Chevrons: origin and relevance for the reconstruction of past wind regimes

Lucas Erouan Vimpere, Pascal Kindler, Sébastien Castelltort

Published: 2020-12-15
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Meteorology, Other Life Sciences, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy

Since its first use in the late 80’s, the term chevron has been employed in numerous studies to describe large U- and V-shaped ridges found in or near shorelines worldwide. Most studies have so far focused on Bahamian chevrons that are exclusively of Late Pleistocene age, and on the supposed Holocene chevrons found in S-Madagascar and Australia. In the Bahamas, these deposits have been [...]

UNSEEN trends: Detecting decadal changes in 100-year precipitation extremes

Timo Kelder, Malte Muller, Louise J. Slater, et al.

Published: 2020-05-25
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Sample sizes of observed climate extremes are typically too small to reliably constrain non-stationary behaviour. To facilitate detection of non-stationarities in 100-year precipitation values over a short period of 35 years (1981-2015), we apply the UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approach, by pooling ensemble members and lead times from the ECMWF seasonal prediction system [...]

COVID-19-related drop in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in China and corresponding cloud and climate effects

Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Jung-Eun Chu, et al.

Published: 2020-05-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to massive disruptions of public life on a global scale. To halt the spread of the disease, China temporarily shut down parts of the manufacturing and transportation sectors. Associated anthropogenic aerosol emissions in February 2020 plunged to record lows, causing a temporary improvement of air quality with uncertain effects on cloud formation, atmospheric [...]

Asian monsoon amplifies semi-direct effect of biomass burning aerosols on low cloud formation

Ke Ding, Xin Huang, Aijun Ding, et al.

Published: 2020-05-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Low clouds play a key role in the Earth-atmosphere energy balance and influence agricultural production and solar-power generation. Smoke aloft has been found to enhance marine stratocu-mulus over the Southeast Atlantic in austral spring through aerosol-cloud interactions, but its role in regions with strong human activities and complex monsoon circulation remains unclear. Here we show that [...]

Aerosols bias daily weather prediction

Xin Huang, Aijun Ding

Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Weather prediction is essential to human daily life. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are still subject to substantial forecast bias and rarely consider the impact of atmospheric aerosols, despite of the consensus of aerosols as the most important sources of uncertainty in predicting climate change. Here we show aerosols as an important driver biasing daily temperature [...]

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