Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Meteorology

UNSEEN trends: Detecting decadal changes in 100-year precipitation extremes

Timo Kelder, Malte Muller, Louise J. Slater, Tim Marjoribanks, Robert L. Wilby, Christel Prudhomme, Patrik Bohlinger, Laura Ferranti, Thomas Nipen

Published: 2020-05-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Sample sizes of observed climate extremes are typically too small to reliably constrain non-stationary behaviour. To facilitate detection of non-stationarities in 100-year precipitation values over a short period of 35 years (1981-2015), we apply the UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approach, by pooling ensemble members and lead times from the ECMWF seasonal prediction system [...]

COVID-19-related drop in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in China and corresponding cloud and climate effects

Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Jung-Eun Chu, Eui-Seok Chung, June-Yi Lee

Published: 2020-05-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to massive disruptions of public life on a global scale. To halt the spread of the disease, China temporarily shut down parts of the manufacturing and transportation sectors. Associated anthropogenic aerosol emissions in February 2020 plunged to record lows, causing a temporary improvement of air quality with uncertain effects on cloud formation, atmospheric [...]

Asian monsoon amplifies semi-direct effect of biomass burning aerosols on low cloud formation

Ke Ding, Xin Huang, Aijun Ding, Minghuai Wang, Hang Su, Veli-matti Kerminen, Tuukka Petaja, Zhemin Tan, Zilin Wang, Derong Zhou

Published: 2020-05-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Low clouds play a key role in the Earth-atmosphere energy balance and influence agricultural production and solar-power generation. Smoke aloft has been found to enhance marine stratocu-mulus over the Southeast Atlantic in austral spring through aerosol-cloud interactions, but its role in regions with strong human activities and complex monsoon circulation remains unclear. Here we show that [...]

Aerosols bias daily weather prediction

Xin Huang, Aijun Ding

Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Weather prediction is essential to human daily life. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are still subject to substantial forecast bias and rarely consider the impact of atmospheric aerosols, despite of the consensus of aerosols as the most important sources of uncertainty in predicting climate change. Here we show aerosols as an important driver biasing daily temperature [...]

Predicting outbreak-level tornado counts and casualties from environmental variables

Zoe Schroder, James B. Elsner

Published: 2020-04-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Life Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Environmental variables are used routinely in forecasting when and where an outbreak of tornadoes are likely to occur, but more work is needed to understand how characteristics of severe weather outbreaks vary with the larger scale environmental factors. Here the authors demonstrate a method to quantify `outbreak-level tornado and casualty counts with respect to variations in large-scale [...]

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service

Philip E Bett, Nicola Martin, Adam Scaife, Nick Dunstone, Gill Martin, Nicola Golding, Joanne Camp, Peiqun Zhang, Chris Hewitt, Leon Hermanson

Published: 2020-03-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Rainfall forecasts for the summer monsoon season in the Yangtze River Basin allow decision-makers to plan for possible flooding, which can affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. A trial climate service was developed in 2016, producing a prototype seasonal forecast product for use by stakeholders in the region, based on forecasting rainfall directly using a dynamical model. Here [...]

Constructing statutory energy goal compliant wind and solar PV infrastructure pathways

Austin Thomas, Pavan Racherla

Published: 2019-10-31
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Geography, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Spatial Science

Concerns over climate change have led governments around the world to establish a range of renewable, low-carbon energy goals. Plans for meeting these targets vary widely in their ambition, specificity, and time horizons. Wind and solar electricity generation will feature prominently in future energy systems that meet these renewable, low-carbon energy goals. Implementing large-scale wind and [...]

Solar signals in observation indeed implied enhanced predictability since 1977

Indrani Roy

Published: 2019-08-28
Subjects: Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

This is a Correspondence submitted to Nature GeoScience following the undermentioned paper: Gabriel Chiodo, Jessica Oehrlein, Lorenzo M. Polvani, John C. Fyfe & Anne K. Smith, Insignificant influence of 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation, Nature Geoscience, volume 12, pages 94–99 (2019). It is a non-peer reviewed preprint.

Interannual, probabilistic prediction of water resources over Europe following the heatwave and drought 2018

Carl Hartick, Carina Furusho, Klaus Goergen, Stefan Kollet

Published: 2019-08-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The year 2018 was one of the hottest and driest years in Europe having a large impact on agriculture, ecosystems and society. The associated drought in central and northern Europe underpins the need for water resources predictions at the seasonal to interannual time scale. In this study, we propose a probabilistic, terrestrial prediction system including water resources utilizing the Terrestrial [...]

Tornado damage ratings estimated with cumulative logistic regression

James B. Elsner, Zoe Schroder

Published: 2019-07-18
Subjects: Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Empirical studies have led to improvements in evaluating and quantifying the tornado threat. However more work is needed to put the research onto a solid statistical foundation. Here the authors begin to build this foundation by introducing and then demonstrating a statistical model to estimate damage rating probabilities. A goal is to alert researchers to available statistical technology for [...]

Dynamical Systems Theory Sheds New Light on Compound Climate Extremes in Europe and Eastern North America

Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Flavio M. E. Pons, Davide Faranda

Published: 2019-06-27
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Dynamic Systems, Earth Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

We propose a novel approach to the study of compound extremes, grounded in dynamical systems theory. Specifically, we present the co-recurrence ratio (α), which elucidates the dependence structure between variables by quantifying their joint recurrences. This approach is applied to daily climate extremes, derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis over the 1979-2018 period. The analysis focuses on [...]

Past and projected weather pattern persistence with associated multi-hazards in the British Isles

Paolo De Luca, Colin Harpham, Robert L. Wilby, John Hillier, Christian L. E. Franzke, Gregor C. Leckebusch

Published: 2019-05-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Hazards such as heatwaves, droughts and floods are often associated with persistent weather patterns. Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) are important tools for evaluating projected changes in extreme weather. Here, we demonstrate that 2-day weather pattern persistence, derived from the Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) objective scheme, is a useful concept for both investigating [...]

Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale

Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Giuliano Di Baldassarre

Published: 2019-05-30
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Multi-hazard events can be associated with larger socio-economic impacts than single-hazard events. Understanding the spatio-temporal interactions that characterise the former is, therefore, of relevance to disaster risk reduction measures. Here, we consider two high-impact hazards, namely wet and dry hydrological extremes, and quantify their global co-occurrence. We define these using the [...]

Trends of hydroclimatic intensity in Colombia

Oscar Mesa, Viviana Urrea, Andrés Ochoa

Published: 2019-05-08
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management

Prediction of changes in precipitation in upcoming years and decades caused by global climate change associated with the greenhouse effect, deforestation and other anthropic perturbations is a practical and scientific problem of high complexity and huge consequences. To advance toward this challenge we look at the daily historical record of all available rain gauges in Colombia to estimate an [...]

Heavy rainfall in Paraguay during the 2015-2016 austral summer: causes and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal predictive skill

James Doss-Gollin, Angel G. Muñoz, Simon J Mason, Max Pastén

Published: 2019-02-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management

During the austral summer 2015/16, severe flooding displaced over 170 000 people on the Paraguay River system in Paraguay, Argentina, and southern Brazil. These floods were driven by repeated heavy rainfall events in the lower Paraguay River basin. Alternating sequences of enhanced moisture inflow from the South American low-level jet and local convergence associated with baroclinic systems were [...]

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