Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

The Impact of Neglecting Climate Change and Variability on ERCOT’s Forecasts of Electricity Demand in Texas

Jangho Lee, Andrew E Dessler

Published: 2021-09-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) manages the electric power across most of Texas. They make short-term assessments of electricity demand based on historical weather over the last decade or two, thereby ignoring the effects of climate change and the possibility of weather variability outside of the recent historical range. In this paper, we develop an empirical methodology to [...]

Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tokyo and Changing Storm Surge Hazard since 1980

Md. Rezuanul Islam, Masaki Satoh, Hiroshi Takagi

Published: 2021-09-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis

This study investigated tidal records and landfall tropical cyclone (TC) best tracks in Japan from 1980 to 2019 to determine changes in storm surge heights in coastal regions of eastern Japan, including Tokyo. The results indicate that annual mean storm surge heights have increased in the last 20 years (2000–2019) compared to those in 1980–1999, and that these changes are noteworthy, particularly [...]

Changes in poleward atmospheric energy transport over a wide range of climates: Energetic and diffusive perspectives and a priori theories

Timothy M Merlis, Nicole Feldl, Rodrigo Caballero

Published: 2021-09-07
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

The midlatitude poleward atmospheric energy transport increases in radiatively forced simulations of warmed climates across a range of models from comprehensive coupled general circulation models (GCMs) to idealized aquaplanet moist GCMs to diffusive moist energy balance models. These increases have been rationalized from two perspectives. The energetic (or radiative) perspective takes the [...]

A high-resolution downscaled CMIP6 projections dataset of essential surface climate variables over the globe coherent with the ERA5-Land reanalysis for climate change impact assessments

Thomas Noël, Harilaos Loukos, Dimitri Defrance

Published: 2021-08-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

A high-resolution climate projections dataset is obtained by statistically downscaling climate projections from the CMIP6 experiment using the ERA5-Land reanalysis from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. This global dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.1°x 0.1°, comprises 5 climate models and includes two surface daily variables at monthly resolution: air temperature and precipitation. Two [...]

Comprehensive aerial survey quantifies high methane emissions from the New Mexico Permian Basin

Yuanlei Chen, Evan D Sherwin, Elena S.F. Berman, et al.

Published: 2021-08-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Limiting emissions of climate-warming methane from oil and gas (O&G) is a major opportunity for short-term climate benefits. We deploy a basin-wide airborne survey of the New Mexico Permian Basin, spanning 35,923 km^2, 26,292 active wells, and over 15,000 km of natural gas pipelines using an independently-validated hyperspectral methane point source detection and quantification system. We [...]

Root foraging alters global patterns of ecosystem legacy from climate perturbations

Max Berkelhammer, Beth Drewniak, Benjamin Ahlswede, et al.

Published: 2021-08-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

The response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate perturbations typically persist longer than the timescale of the forcing, a phenomenon that is broadly referred to as ecosystem legacy. Understanding the strength of legacy is critical for predicting ecosystem sensitivity to climate extremes and the extent to which persistent changes in land surface-atmosphere exchange might feedback onto the [...]

Safety and Belonging in the Field: A Checklist for Educators

Sarah E Greene, Gwen S. Antell, Jake Atterby, et al.

Published: 2021-08-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Cosmochemistry, Earth Sciences, Education, Environmental Education, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Fresh Water Studies, Geochemistry, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Higher Education, Human Geography, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Meteorology, Mineral Physics, Natural Resource Economics, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Geography, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Planetary Sciences, Outdoor Education, Paleobiology, Paleontology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Biogeochemistry, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Glaciology, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Mineral Physics, Planetary Sciences, Planetary Sedimentology, Remote Sensing, Sedimentology, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Soil Science, Spatial Science, Speleology, Stratigraphy, Sustainability, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology, Water Resource Management

Ensuring taught fieldwork is a positive, generative, collective, and valuable experience for all participants requires considerations beyond course content. To guarantee safety and belonging, participants’ identities (backgrounds and protected characteristics) must be considered as a part of fieldwork planning and implementation. Furthermore, getting fieldwork right is an important step in [...]

Irreducible Southern Ocean State Uncertainty due to Global Ocean Initial Conditions

Hansi Alice Singh, Naomi Goldenson, John Fyfe, et al.

Published: 2021-08-17
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

How do ocean initial conditions impact historical and future climate projections in Earth system models? To answer this question, we use the 50-member Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) large ensemble, in which individual ensemble members are initialized using a strategic combination of different oceanic initial states and different atmospheric perturbations. We show that global ocean heat [...]

Imprint of the Pacific Walker Circulation in global precipitation δ18O

Georgina Maja Falster, Bronwen Konecky, Midhun Madhavan, et al.

Published: 2021-07-30
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Characterising variability in the global water cycle is fundamental to predicting impacts of future climate change; understanding the role of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) in the regional expression of global water cycle changes is critical to understanding this variability. Water isotopes are ideal tracers of the role of the PWC in global water cycling, because they retain information [...]

Creating a climate changed future with the sea level rise interactive- fiction game ‘Lagos2199’

Patrick Keys, Matthew P Keys

Published: 2021-07-26
Subjects: Climate, Education, Environmental Education, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Instructional Media Design, International and Area Studies, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Science and Mathematics Education, Sustainability

Story-based futures serve an important role in climate change scenario development. Stories are particularly useful in exploring sea level rise possibilities, since we know many coastal areas are specifically vulnerable to accelerating rises in sea level. This discrete change in coastline is different from most other climate change impacts, and offers a clear basis for scientifically-informed, [...]

Energetics and mixing of stratified, rotating flow over abyssal hills

Varvara E Zemskova, Nicolas Grisouard

Published: 2021-07-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

One of the proposed mechanisms for energy loss in the ocean is through dissipation of internal waves, in particular above rough topography where internal lee waves are generated. Rates of dissipation and diapycnal mixing are often estimated using linear theory and a constant value for mixing efficiency. However, previous oceanographic measurements found that non-linear dynamics may be important [...]

A CMIP6 ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America

Colin Raymond Mahony, Tongli Wang, Andreas Hamann, et al.

Published: 2021-07-01
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Many studies of climate change impacts and adaptation use climate model projections downscaled at very high spatial resolution (~1km) but very low temporal resolution (20- to 30-year normals). These applications have model selection priorities that are distinct from analyses at high temporal resolution. Here, we select a 13-model CMIP6 ensemble designed for robust change-factor downscaling of [...]

Stereophotogrammetry of clouds observed during T-REX

Ulrike Romatschke, Vanda Grubišić

Published: 2021-06-29
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Stereophotogrammetric images collected during the Terrain-induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX), which took place in Owens Valley, California, in the spring of 2006, were used to track clouds and cloud fragments in space and time. We explore how photogrammetric data complements other instruments deployed during T-REX, and how it supports T-REX objectives to study the structure and dynamics of [...]

An Outsized Role for the Labrador Sea in the Multidecadal Variability of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

Stephen Yeager, Fred Castruccio, Ping Chang, et al.

Published: 2021-06-15
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Climate models are essential tools for investigating intrinsic North Atlantic variability related to variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), but recent observations have called into question the fidelity of models that emphasize the importance of Labrador Sea processes. A multi-century pre-industrial climate simulation that resolves ocean mesoscale eddies has a [...]

A new tropical cyclone surge index incorporating the effects of coastal geometry, bathymetry and storm information

Md. Rezuanul Islam, Chia-Ying Lee, Kyle T. Mandli, et al.

Published: 2021-06-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis

This study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced maximum surge levels at a coast. The SSHPI incorporates parameters that are often readily available at real-time: intensity in 10-minute maximum wind speed, radius of 50-kt wind, translation speed, coastal geometry, and bathymetry information. The inclusion of translation speed and [...]

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