Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Probability

Using sedimentological priors to improve 14C calibration of bioturbated sediment archives.

Bryan C. Lougheed

Published: 2021-06-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability

Radiocarbon (14C) dating is often carried out upon multi-specimen samples sourced from bioturbated sediment archives, such as deep-sea sediment. These samples are inherently heterogeneous in age, but current 14C calibration techniques applied to such age heterogenous samples were originally developed for age homogeneous material. A lack of information about age heterogeneity leads to a systematic [...]

Bayesian population correlation: A probabilistic approach to inferring and comparing population distributions for detrital zircon ages

Alexander Robert Tye, Aaron Wolf, Nathan Niemi

Published: 2021-06-18
Subjects: Geochemistry, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Tectonics and Structure

Populations of detrital zircons are shaped by geologic factors such as sediment transport, erosion mechanisms, and the zircon fertility of source areas. Zircon U-Pb age datasets are influenced both by these geologic factors and by the statistical effects of sampling. Such statistical effects introduce significant uncertainty into the inference of parent population age distributions from detrital [...]

Controls on the development and termination of failed continental rifts: Insights from the crustal structure and rifting style of the North Sea via ambient noise tomography

Emily Crowder, Nick Rawlinson, David G. Cornwell, et al.

Published: 2019-09-21
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability

The mid to lower crust plays an important role in rift initiation and evolution, particularly when large scale sutures and/or terrane boundaries are present. These inherited features can focus strain or act as inhibitors to extensional deformation. Ancient tectonic features are known to exist beneath the iconic failed rift system of the North Sea making it the ideal location to investigate the [...]

Segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust inferred from geodetic observations of interseismic coupling

Luca Dal Zilio, Romain Jolivet, Ylona van Dinther

Published: 2019-07-04
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure

Mapping the distribution of locked segments along subduction megathrusts is essential for improving quantitative assessments of seismic hazard. Previous geodetic studies suggest the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) is homogeneously locked (or coupled) along its complete length over a down-dip extent of ~100 km. However, an increasing number of seismological and geophysical observations suggests the [...]

Information-theoretic Portfolio Decision Model for Optimal Flood Management

Matteo Convertino, Antonio Annis, Fernando Nardi

Published: 2019-06-27
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Computational Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering, Other Engineering, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability, Systems Engineering, Water Resource Management

The increasing impact of flooding urges more effective flood management strategies to guarantee sustainable ecosystem development. Recent catastrophes underline the importance of avoiding local flood management, but characterizing large scale basin wide approaches for systemic flood risk management. Here we introduce an information-theoretic Portfolio Decision Model (iPDM) for the optimization of [...]

A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe

Philip E Bett, Hazel E. Thornton, Alberto Troccoli, et al.

Published: 2019-04-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Probability, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability

We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector. Following previous studies, we show that, where there is skill, a simple linear regression-based [...]

Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment

Jasper Verschuur, Dewi Le Bars, Sybren Drijfhout, et al.

Published: 2018-11-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantifying this uncertainty is essential to support sound risk management of coastal areas, although it is [...]

Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors

Dewi Le Bars

Published: 2018-03-08
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Sea level rises at an accelerating pace threatening coastal communities all over the world. In this context sea level projections are key tools to help risk mitigation and adaptation. Sea level projections are often made using models of the main contributors to sea level rise (e.g. thermal expansion, glaciers, ice sheets...). To obtain the total sea level these contributions are added, therefore [...]

Bootstrapped high quantile estimation --- An experiment with scarce precipitation data

Hung Tan Thai Nguyen, Harald Bernhard, Zhangsheng Lai

Published: 2018-02-25
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability

This paper details team SUTD’s effort when participating in the “Prediction of extremal precipitation” challenge. We propose a framework that combines the generalized Pareto distribution, a bootstrap resampling scheme and inverse distance weights to capture spatial dependence. Our method reduces the quantile loss functions by 55.1% as compared to a naive benchmark, and shows improvement across [...]

Distal turbidites reveal a common distribution for large (>0.1 km3) submarine landslide recurrence

Michael Clare, Peter Talling, James Hunt, et al.

Published: 2017-10-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Sedimentology, Statistics and Probability

Submarine landslides can be far larger than those on land, and are one of the most important processes for moving sediment across our planet. Landslides that are fast enough to disintegrate can generate potentially very hazardous tsunamis, and produce long run-out turbidity currents that break strategically important cable networks. It is important to understand their frequency and triggers. We [...]

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