Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Risk Analysis

A Generalized Natural Hazard Risk Modelling Framework for Infrastructure Failure Cascades

Evelyn Mühlhofer, Elco E. Koks, Chahan M. Kropf, et al.

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis

Critical infrastructures are more exposed than ever to natural hazards in a chaning climate. To understand and manage risk, failure cascades across large, real-world infrastructure networks, caused by real-world hazards, and their impact on people, must be captured. Bridging established methods in both infrastructure and risk modelling communities, we develop an open-source modelling framework [...]

Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing coastal flood risk

Mariana C A Clare, Tim Leijnse, Robert McCall, et al.

Published: 2022-03-14
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Risk Analysis, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability

When choosing an appropriate hydrodynamic model, there is always a compromise between accuracy and computational cost, with high fidelity models being more expensive than low fidelity ones. However, when assessing uncertainty, we can use a multifidelity approach to take advantage of the accuracy of high fidelity models and the computational efficiency of low fidelity models. Here, we apply the [...]

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.

Chahan M. Kropf, Alessio Ciullo, Laura Otth, et al.

Published: 2022-02-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Design of Experiments and Sample Surveys, Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Risk Analysis, Statistical Methodology

Modelling the risk of natural hazards for society, ecosystems, and the economy is subject to strong uncertainties, even more so in the context of a changing climate, evolving societies, growing economies, and declining ecosystems. Here we present a new feature of the climate risk modelling platform CLIMADA which allows to carry out global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. CLIMADA underpins [...]

Climate-Catchment-Soil Control on Hydrological Droughts in Peninsular India

Poulomi Ganguli, Bhupinderjeet Singh, Nagarjuna Nukala Reddy, et al.

Published: 2022-01-28
Subjects: Bioresource and Agricultural Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Mathematics, Risk Analysis

Most land surface system models and observational assessments ignore detailed soil characteristics while describing the drought attributes such as growth, duration, recovery, and the termination rate of the event. With the national-scale digital soil maps available for India, we assessed the climate-catchment-soil nexus using daily observed streamflow records from 98 sites in tropical [...]

Urban Flood Impact Assessment and Hazard Vulnerability Analysis: Iowa Case Study

Yazeed Alabbad, Ibrahim Demir

Published: 2022-01-27
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Risk Analysis

Flooding is one of the most common natural disasters affecting communities worldwide. It is expected to persist with increasing magnitude and frequency as a result of climate change, resulting in both direct and indirect negative consequences. The flood impact assessment is considered as a key component of flood risk management strategies, such as benefit-cost analysis for mitigation planning. [...]

Flood Risk Assessment and Quantification at the Community and Property Level in the State of Iowa

Enes Yildirim, Craig Just, Ibrahim Demir

Published: 2021-10-28
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Risk Analysis

Flood risk assessment contributes to identifying at-risk communities and supports mitigation decisions to maximize benefits from the investments. Large-scale risk assessments generate invaluable inputs for prioritizing regions for the distribution of limited resources. High-resolution flood maps and accurate parcel information are critical for flood risk analysis to generate reliable outcomes for [...]

Flood Mitigation Data Analytics and Decision Support Framework: Iowa Middle Cedar Watershed Case Study

Yazeed Alabbad, Enes Yildirim, Ibrahim Demir

Published: 2021-10-23
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Risk Analysis

Flooding is one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing billions of dollars in damage and threatening vulnerable communities worldwide. Although the impact of flooding can never be diminished, minimizing future losses is possible by taking structural or non-structural mitigation actions. Mitigation applications are often costly practices. However, they can be more feasible for long-term [...]

The Impact of Neglecting Climate Change and Variability on ERCOT’s Forecasts of Electricity Demand in Texas

Jangho Lee, Andrew Dessler

Published: 2021-09-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) manages the electric power across most of Texas. They make short-term assessments of electricity demand based on historical weather over the last decade or two, thereby ignoring the effects of climate change and the possibility of weather variability outside of the recent historical range. In this paper, we develop an empirical methodology to [...]

Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tokyo and Changing Storm Surge Hazard since 1980

Md. Rezuanul Islam, Masaki Satoh, Hiroshi Takagi

Published: 2021-09-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis

This study investigated tidal records and landfall tropical cyclone (TC) best tracks in Japan from 1980 to 2019 to determine changes in storm surge heights in coastal regions of eastern Japan, including Tokyo. The results indicate that annual mean storm surge heights have increased in the last 20 years (2000–2019) compared to those in 1980–1999, and that these changes are noteworthy, particularly [...]

De-risking the energy transition by quantifying the uncertainties in fault stability

David Healy, Stephen Paul Hicks

Published: 2021-07-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Other Engineering, Risk Analysis

The operations needed to decarbonise our energy systems increasingly involve faulted rocks in the subsurface. To manage the technical challenges presented by these rocks and the justifiable public concern over induced seismicity, we need to assess the risks. Widely used measures for fault stability, including slip and dilation tendency and fracture susceptibility, can be combined with Response [...]

A new tropical cyclone surge index incorporating the effects of coastal geometry, bathymetry and storm information

Md. Rezuanul Islam, Chia-Ying Lee, Kyle T. Mandli, et al.

Published: 2021-06-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis

This study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced maximum surge levels at a coast. The SSHPI incorporates parameters that are often readily available at real-time: intensity in 10-minute maximum wind speed, radius of 50-kt wind, translation speed, coastal geometry, and bathymetry information. The inclusion of translation speed and [...]

How unprecedented was the February 2021 Texas cold snap?

James Doss-Gollin, David J Farnham, Upmanu Lall, et al.

Published: 2021-02-28
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis

Winter storm Uri brought severe cold to the southern United States in February 2021, causing a cascading failure of interdependent systems in Texas where infrastructure was not adequately prepared for such cold. In particular, the failure of interconnected energy systems restricted electricity supply just as demand for heating spiked, leaving millions of Texans without heat or electricity, many [...]

Assessing erosion and flood risk in the coastal zone through the application of the multilevel Monte Carlo method

Mariana C A Clare, Matthew Piggott, Colin J Cotter

Published: 2021-01-07
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability

The risk from erosion and flooding in the coastal zone has the potential to increase in a changing climate. The development and use of coupled hydro-morphodynamic models is therefore becoming an ever higher priority. However, their use as decision support tools suffers from the high degree of uncertainty associated with them, due to incomplete knowledge as well as natural variability in the [...]

Mapping Landslides With a Generalized Convolutional Neural Network

Nikhil Prakash, Andrea Manconi, Simon Loew

Published: 2020-12-13
Subjects: Geomorphology, Other Earth Sciences, Risk Analysis

Landslides are a common secondary hazard triggered by major earthquakes or extreme rainfall events in steep terrains. Rapid mapping of event landslides is crucial to identify the areas affected by damages as well as for effective disaster response. Traditionally, such maps are generated with visual interpretation of remote sensing imagery (manned/unmanned airborne systems or spaceborne sensors) [...]

Socio-technical multi-criteria evaluation of long-term spent nuclear fuel management strategies: Supplementary method

François Diaz-Maurin, Jerold Yu, Rodney C. Ewing

Published: 2020-11-06
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Other Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis, Sustainability

The paper presents supplementary information about the framework and method for the socio-technical multi-criteria evaluation (STMCE) of spent fuel management strategies (Sci Total Environ, In press; Available on EarthArXiv at DOI:10.31223/X5459S). The STMCE approach consists of (i) a multi-criteria evaluation that provides an ordinal ranking of alternatives based on a list of criterion [...]

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