Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Statistical Methodology

Robust Probabilities of Detection and Quantification Uncertainty for Aerial Methane Detection: Examples for Three Airborne Technologies

Bradley Mark Conrad, David R Tyner, Matthew R Johnson

Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Mechanical Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models

Thorough understanding of probabilities of detection (POD) and quantification uncertainties is fundamentally important when applying aerial measurement technologies as part of alternative means of emission limitation (AMEL) or alternate fugitive emissions management programs (Alt-FEMP), as part of monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) efforts, and in surveys designed to support [...]

Probabilistic Assessment of Antarctic Thermomechanical Structure: Impacts on Ice Sheet Stability

James Alexander Nicholas Hazzard, Fred D. Richards, Saskia Goes, et al.

Published: 2022-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Mineral Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology

Uncertainty in present-day glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) rates represent at least 44% of the total gravity-based ice mass balance signal over Antarctica. Meanwhile, physical couplings between solid Earth, sea level and ice dynamics enhance the dependency of the spatiotemporally varying GIA signal on three-dimensional variations in mantle rheology. Improved knowledge of thermomechanical [...]

Reducing the Uncertainty of Multi-Well Petrophysical Interpretation from Well Logs via Machine-Learning and Statistical Models

Wen Pan, Carlos Torres-Verdín, Ian J Duncan, et al.

Published: 2022-03-23
Subjects: Analysis, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geophysics and Seismology, Mining Engineering, Multivariate Analysis, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models

Well-log interpretation provides in situ estimates of formation properties such as porosity, hydrocarbon pore volume, and permeability. Reservoir models based on well-log-derived formation properties deliver reserve-volume estimates, production forecasts, and help with decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs due to multiple [...]

Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing coastal flood risk

Mariana C A Clare, Tim Leijnse, Robert McCall, et al.

Published: 2022-03-14
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Risk Analysis, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability

When choosing an appropriate hydrodynamic model, there is always a compromise between accuracy and computational cost, with high fidelity models being more expensive than low fidelity ones. However, when assessing uncertainty, we can use a multifidelity approach to take advantage of the accuracy of high fidelity models and the computational efficiency of low fidelity models. Here, we apply the [...]

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.

Chahan M. Kropf, Alessio Ciullo, Laura Otth, et al.

Published: 2022-02-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Design of Experiments and Sample Surveys, Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Risk Analysis, Statistical Methodology

Modelling the risk of natural hazards for society, ecosystems, and the economy is subject to strong uncertainties, even more so in the context of a changing climate, evolving societies, growing economies, and declining ecosystems. Here we present a new feature of the climate risk modelling platform CLIMADA which allows to carry out global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. CLIMADA underpins [...]

Estuarine-deltaic controls on coastal carbon burial in the western Ganges-Brahmaputra delta over the last 5,000 years

Rory Patrick Flood, Margaret Georgina Milne, Graeme T Swindles, et al.

Published: 2021-11-26
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geomorphology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management

The Ganges–Brahmaputra fluvial system drains the Himalayas and is one of the largest sources of terrestrial biosphere carbon to the ocean. It represents a major continental reservoir of CO2 associated with c. 1–2 billion tons of sediment transported each year. Shallow coastal environments receive substantial inputs of terrestrial carbon (900 Tg C yr−1), with allochthonous carbon capture on [...]

Bayesian population correlation: A probabilistic approach to inferring and comparing population distributions for detrital zircon ages

Alexander Robert Tye, Aaron Wolf, Nathan Niemi

Published: 2021-06-19
Subjects: Geochemistry, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Tectonics and Structure

Populations of detrital zircons are shaped by geologic factors such as sediment transport, erosion mechanisms, and the zircon fertility of source areas. Zircon U-Pb age datasets are influenced both by these geologic factors and by the statistical effects of sampling. Such statistical effects introduce significant uncertainty into the inference of parent population age distributions from detrital [...]

An uncertainty-focused database approach to extract spatiotemporal trends from qualitative and discontinuous lake-status histories

Gijs De Cort, Manuel Chevalier, Sallie L. Burrough, et al.

Published: 2021-03-01
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Other Earth Sciences, Sedimentology, Statistical Methodology, Stratigraphy

Changes in lake status are often interpreted as palaeoclimate indicators due to their dependence on precipitation and evaporation. The Global Lake Status Database (GLSDB) has since long provided a standardised synopsis of qualitative lake status over the last 30,000 14C years. Potential sources of uncertainty however are not recorded in the GLSDB. Here we present an updated and improved [...]

The Emergent Influence of Anthropogenic Warming on Global Crop Yields

Frances Moore

Published: 2020-10-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistical Methodology

A large literature on “detection and attribution” has now demonstrated the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on a range of physical climate variables. Social and economic outcomes are known to be sensitive to climate change, but directly connecting observed changes to anthropogenic forcing is challenging. Here I estimate the effect of anthropogenic warming on global crop yield [...]

Three Common Statistical Missteps We Make in Reservoir Characterization

Frank Male, Jerry L. Jensen

Published: 2020-05-11
Subjects: Chemical Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geology, Petroleum Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability

Reservoir characterization analysis resulting from incorrect applications of statistics can be found in the literature, particularly in applications where integration of various disciplines is needed. Here, we look at three misapplications of ordinary least squares linear regression (LSLR) and show how they can lead to poor results and offer better alternatives, where available. The issues are [...]

A PCA-based framework for determining remotely-sensed geological surface orientations and their statistical quality

Daven Quinn, Bethany Ehlmann

Published: 2018-11-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Sciences, Planetary Sedimentology, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure

The orientations of planar rock layers are fundamental to our understanding of structural geology and stratigraphy. Remote-sensing platforms including satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and LIDAR scanners are increasingly used to build three-dimensional models of structural features on Earth and other planets. Remotely-gathered orientation measurements are straightforward to calculate [...]

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