Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

Nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate proxy records

Norbert Marwan, Jonathan F. Donges, Reik V. Donner, et al.

Published: 2021-11-08
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Dynamic Systems, Earth Sciences, Geology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Multivariate Analysis, Non-linear Dynamics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

Identifying and characterising dynamical regime shifts, critical transitions or potential tipping points in palaeoclimate time series is relevant for improving the understanding of often highly nonlinear Earth system dynamics. Beyond linear changes in time series properties such as mean, variance, or trend, these nonlinear regime shifts can manifest as changes in signal predictability, [...]

The importance of threshold in alluvial river channel geometry and dynamics

Colin Phillips, Claire Masteller, Louise Slater, et al.

Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Fluid Dynamics, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Sedimentology, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, Water Resource Management

Many cities and settlements are organized around alluvial rivers, which are self-formed channels composed of gravel, sand and mud. Much of the time alluvial river channels are oversized, in that they could accommodate greater water flow; yet during extreme storms they are woefully undersized, and potentially catastrophic flooding can occur. Considering widely varying hydroclimates, sediment [...]

The impact of intermittency on bed load sediment transport

Santiago J. Benavides, Eric Deal, Matthew Rushlow, et al.

Published: 2021-02-09
Subjects: Dynamical Systems, Geomorphology, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

Sediment transport by wind or water near the threshold of grain motion is dominated by rare transport events. This intermittency makes it difficult to calibrate sediment transport laws, or to define an unambiguous threshold for grain entrainment, both of which are crucial for predicting sediment transport rates. We present a model that captures this intermittency and show that the noisy [...]

Dynamical Systems Theory Sheds New Light on Compound Climate Extremes in Europe and Eastern North America

paolo de luca, Gabriele Messori, Flavio M. E. Pons, et al.

Published: 2019-06-27
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Dynamic Systems, Earth Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

We propose a novel approach to the study of compound extremes, grounded in dynamical systems theory. Specifically, we present the co-recurrence ratio (α), which elucidates the dependence structure between variables by quantifying their joint recurrences. This approach is applied to daily climate extremes, derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis over the 1979-2018 period. The analysis focuses on [...]

Poroelastic effects destabilize mildly rate-strengthening friction to generate stable slow slip pulses

Elias Rafn Heimisson, Eric M. Dunham, Martin Almquist

Published: 2019-03-19
Subjects: Applied Mechanics, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Mechanical Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, Tribology

Slow slip events on tectonic faults, sliding instabilities that never accelerate to inertially limited ruptures or earthquakes, are one of the most enigmatic phenomena in frictional sliding. While observations of slow slip events continue to mount, a plausible mechanism that permits instability while simultaneously limiting slip speed remains elusive. Rate-and-state friction has been successful [...]

River deltas as Multiplex networks: A framework for studying multi-process multi-scale connectivity via coupled-network theory

Alejandro Tejedor, Anthony Longjas, Paola Passalacqua, et al.

Published: 2018-04-14
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Dynamic Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Mathematics, Non-linear Dynamics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

Transport of water, nutrients or energy fluxes in many natural or coupled human-natural systems occurs along different pathways that often have a wide range of transport timescales and might exchange fluxes with each other dynamically (e.g., surface-subsurface). Understanding this type of transport is key to predicting how landscapes will change under changing forcing. Here, we present a general [...]

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