Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Statistics and Probability

Deep Unsupervised 4D Seismic 3D Time-Shift Estimation with Convolutional Neural Networks

Jesper Sören Dramsch, Anders Nymark Christensen, Colin MacBeth, et al.

Published: 2019-10-31
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

We present a novel 3D warping technique for the estimation of 4D seismic time-shift. This unsupervised method provides a diffeomorphic 3D time shift field that includes uncertainties, therefore it does not need prior time-shift data to be trained. This results in a widely applicable method in time-lapse seismic data analysis. We explore the generalization of the method to unseen data both in the [...]

Controls on the development and termination of failed continental rifts: Insights from the crustal structure and rifting style of the North Sea via ambient noise tomography

Emily Crowder, Nick Rawlinson, David Cornwell, et al.

Published: 2019-09-21
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability

The mid to lower crust plays an important role in rift initiation and evolution, particularly when large scale sutures and/or terrane boundaries are present. These inherited features can focus strain or act as inhibitors to extensional deformation. Ancient tectonic features are known to exist beneath the iconic failed rift system of the North Sea making it the ideal location to investigate the [...]

Paradoxical impact of sprawling intra-Urban Heat Islets: Reducing mean surface temperatures while enhancing local extremes

Anamika Shreevastava, Saiprasanth Bhalachandran, Gavan McGrath, et al.

Published: 2019-09-09
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Cities are at the forefront of climate change impacts and face a growing burden of adaptation to ensuing natural hazards. Extreme heat is a particularly challenging hazard as persistent heatwaves are locally exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. As a result, there is an increasing scientific interest in the influence of diverse urban morphologies on UHI. However, as the temperatures [...]

Emergent self-similarity and scaling properties of fractal intra-Urban Heat Islets for diverse global cities

Anamika Shreevastava, P. Suresh C. Rao, Gavan McGrath

Published: 2019-09-02
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Urban areas experience elevated temperatures due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. However, temperatures within cities vary considerably and their spatial heterogeneity is not well characterized. Here, we use Land Surface Temperature (LST) of 78 global cities to show that the Surface UHI (SUHI) is fractal. We use percentile-based thermal thresholds to identify heat clusters emerging within [...]

A mechanistic erosion model for cosmogenic nuclide inheritance in fluvial single-clast exposure ages

Veronica Prush, Michael E. Oskin

Published: 2019-08-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure

Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (TCNs), produced by the bombardment of Earth’s surface by cosmic rays, are widely used for age-dating and pacing surface processes. Sediments carry an inherited TCN concentration, useful for quantifying erosion and transport rates, but that must be subtracted when age-dating sedimentary landforms, such as alluvial fans. Here we present a mechanistic model of [...]

Tornado damage ratings estimated with cumulative logistic regression

James B Elsner, Zoe Marie Schroder

Published: 2019-07-18
Subjects: Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Empirical studies have led to improvements in evaluating and quantifying the tornado threat. However more work is needed to put the research onto a solid statistical foundation. Here the authors begin to build this foundation by introducing and then demonstrating a statistical model to estimate damage rating probabilities. A goal is to alert researchers to available statistical technology for [...]

Segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust inferred from geodetic observations of interseismic coupling

Luca Dal Zilio, Romain Jolivet, Ylona van Dinther

Published: 2019-07-04
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure

Mapping the distribution of locked segments along subduction megathrusts is essential for improving quantitative assessments of seismic hazard. Previous geodetic studies suggest the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) is homogeneously locked (or coupled) along its complete length over a down-dip extent of ~100 km. However, an increasing number of seismological and geophysical observations suggests the [...]

Information-theoretic Portfolio Decision Model for Optimal Flood Management

Matteo Convertino, Antonio Annis, Fernando Nardi

Published: 2019-06-27
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Computational Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering, Other Engineering, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability, Systems Engineering, Water Resource Management

The increasing impact of flooding urges more effective flood management strategies to guarantee sustainable ecosystem development. Recent catastrophes underline the importance of avoiding local flood management, but characterizing large scale basin wide approaches for systemic flood risk management. Here we introduce an information-theoretic Portfolio Decision Model (iPDM) for the optimization of [...]

Analysis of Persistence in the Flood Timing and the Role of Catchment Wetness on Flood Generation in a Large River Basin in India

Nandamuri Yamini Rama, Poulomi Ganguli, Chandranath Chatterjee

Published: 2019-05-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

This study contributes to the understanding of the timing of occurrence of floods and role of the catchment wetness in flood processes (i.e., magnitude and the timing of floods) over one of the largest tropical pluvial river basin system, Mahanadi, in India. Being located in the monsoon ‘core’ region (18° - 28° N latitude and 73° - 82° E longitude) and its proximity to Bay of Bengal, Mahanadi [...]

Trends of hydroclimatic intensity in Colombia

Oscar Mesa, Viviana Urrea, Andrés Ochoa

Published: 2019-05-08
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management

Prediction of changes in precipitation in upcoming years and decades caused by global climate change associated with the greenhouse effect, deforestation and other anthropic perturbations is a practical and scientific problem of high complexity and huge consequences. To advance toward this challenge we look at the daily historical record of all available rain gauges in Colombia to estimate an [...]

Probabilistic space- and time-interaction modeling of main-shock earthquake rupture occurrence

Luis Ceferino, Anne Kiremidjian, Gregory Deierlein

Published: 2019-04-28
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Structural Engineering

This paper presents a probabilistic formulation for modeling earthquake rupture processes of mainshocks. A correlated multivariate Bernoulli distribution is used to model rupture occurrence. The model captures time interaction through the use of Brownian passage-time (BPT) distributions to assess rupture interarrival in multiple sections of the fault, and it also considers spatial interaction [...]

Are Detected Trends in Flood Magnitude and Shifts in the Timing of Floods of A Major River Basin in India, Linked To Anthropogenic Stressors?

Nandamuri Yamini Rama, Poulomi Ganguli, Chandranath Chatterjee

Published: 2019-04-10
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Analyzing of trends in flood magnitude and the timing of the dates of flood occurrences of large river basins across the globe are essential for understanding changes in water availability (high or low flows) and assessing the fidelity of global hydrological models. Our research is motivated by the recent six major consecutive floods in Mahanadi (years: 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2013) [...]

What has Global Sensitivity Analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to support scientific advancement and to inform policy-making in earth system modelling

Thorsten Wagener, Francesca Pianosi

Published: 2019-04-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Mathematics, Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability

Computer models are essential tools in the earth system sciences. They underpin our search for understanding of earth system functioning and support decision- and policy-making across spatial and temporal scales. To understand the implications of uncertainty and environmental variability on the identification of such earth system models and their predictions, we can rely on increasingly powerful [...]

Matlab/R workflows to assess critical choices in Global Sensitivity Analysis using the SAFE toolbox

Valentina Noacco, Fanny Sarrazin, Francesca Pianosi, et al.

Published: 2019-04-05
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a set of statistical techniques to investigate the effects of the uncertainty in the input factors of a mathematical model on the model’s outputs. The value of GSA for the construction, evaluation, and improvement of earth system models is reviewed in a companion paper by Wagener and Pianosi [n.d.]. The present paper focuses on the implementation of GSA and [...]

A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe

Philip Bett, Hazel E. Thornton, Alberto Troccoli, et al.

Published: 2019-04-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Probability, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability

We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector. Following previous studies, we show that, where there is skill, a simple linear regression-based [...]

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