Carbon Dioxide Removal Supply Curves: A Multi-Model Assessment

Catrin Harris , Vassilis Daioglou, Isabela Tagomori , Oumaima Rhalem, Jonathan Doelman , Jay Fuhrman, Roan Chadsey, Jae Edmonds, Yoga Wienda Pratama, Siddharth Joshi, Volker Krey, Anne Merfort, Tabea Dorndorf, Kristine Karstens, Florian Humpenöder, Jessica Strefler, Laurent Drouet, Marco Gambarini, Cindy Giselle Azuero Pedraza, Hattie Whittaker, Nicole Egna, Sanna O’Connor-Morberg, Detlef van Vuuren

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is widely recognised as essential for pathways consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement. Yet the cost-dependent potential of CDR options, given resource competition, remains uncertain. Here we present CDR-supply curves assessing a range of CDR options across carbon price levels using five Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for 2035, 2050 and 2100. At 400 (200) $ tCO₂⁻¹, global CDR potential reaches 2.6-9.7 (2.1-6.0) GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ in 2050 and 10.3-20.9 (5.9-12.4) GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ in 2100, with higher prices enabling more diverse portfolios. Cross-model comparison shows that DACCS has the largest variability, while BECCS is consistently deployed; overall, options with geological storage dominate. CDR deployment drives resource demand, but with diversified portfolios these impacts are small compared to total energy and land use. These results indicate sufficient global technical CDR potential to meet long-term strategy (LTS) targets, though achieving this requires substantial policy and financial support.