Designing decision-centric early warning systems for climate tipping points: the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre as a test case

Ekaterina Popova , Xinyi Bai, Elisabeth Clark, Charlotte Cooper, Christine Gommenginger, Zoe Jacobs, Simon Jude, Stephen Kelly, Alexandra Loveridge, Alice Marzocchi, Jennifer Mecking, Jacqueline Nightingale, Sophy Oliver, Jonathan Paul Rosser, Irene Ruiz Espejo, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, David Trossman, Ashley Hall

Early warning systems (EWS) for climate tipping point must support decisions to be useful. Using the potential near-term Subpolar Gyre tipping point as a test case, we develop a pre-elicitation framework linking Earth System science with decision-making. We show that no single EWS can meet diverse decision needs. Instead, the framework identifies shared decision architectures and information requirements, enabling scalable stakeholder co-design without bespoke systems for every user.