A Reduced-Order Dynamical Model for the Ignition of Diver-Induced Cohesive Silt-Out on Sloping Beds

Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho , Iwan Pramesti Anwar, Umar Abdurrahman, Faruq Khadami, Alfita Puspa Handayani, Karina Aprilia Sujatmiko, Dasapta Erwin Irawan

A downward fin thrust near a cohesive seabed lofts sediment. Whether this cloud settles or organizes into a self-sustaining down-slope current determines if a diver loses visibility briefly or catastrophically. We reduce the layer-averaged balances of fluid mass, sediment mass, and momentum to a temporal slab of fixed thickness in the weakly entraining limit. This yields an autonomous planar vector field in dimensionless near-bed speed and suspended load, governed by three dimensionless groups: drag against settling, erosion strength, and near-bed concentration. The field possesses a quiescent equilibrium at the origin and, above a critical bed slope obtained in closed form as the ratio of near-bed concentration times drag-settling number to erosion-strength number, an interior saddle equilibrium. The saddle's stable manifold partitions the state space into basins of decay and unbounded growth, establishing the exact threshold between self-limiting and igniting disturbances. On a flat bed, the origin attracts globally for all admissible erosion laws. For representative silt, the ignition threshold is near a 17-degree bed angle. The closed-form structure is confirmed numerically to machine precision. A closure study demonstrates the critical slope is robust in existence but closure-dependent in value, identifying the linear erosion law as the conservative choice. The model thus isolates bed slope as the controlling parameter for ignition.