Material demand and supply-chain assessment of U.S. electricity system transitions

Paul Jakob Griffths, Avery Moorhead, Maarten Brinkerink, Erin Mayfield 

Decarbonizing the U.S. electricity sector will require rapid deployment of generation, storage, and transmission infrastructure, increasing demand for materials. We develop an integrated framework that quantifies annual and cumulative material demand from 2027 to 2050 across an ensemble of U.S. electricity futures spanning alternative policy, technology, and economic assumptions. Across the scenario ensemble, annual demand generally peaks during the late 2020s and 2030s before declining or moderating, with accelerated decarbonization increasing peak demand and more gradual decarbonization sustaining demand over longer periods. Demand uncertainty is driven primarily by U.S. electricity system scenarios for bulk commodities and base and alloying metals, and by material intensity assumptions for specialty metals and rare earth elements. We assess supply-chain vulnerabilities using metrics that characterize current supply-chain structure and compare projected material demand with current domestic and global production and reserves. Projected domestic material demand exceeds current domestic production and reserves for multiple materials, while remaining below current global supply for most. Tellurium, dysprosium, terbium, indium, and neodymium exhibit convergent but distinct supply-chain vulnerabilities, reflecting different combinations of elevated demand relative to global supply, high U.S. import reliance, and geographically concentrated primary production and processing. This framework, which integrates material demand projections with multidimensional supply-chain assessment, can be used to inform energy system planning, technological innovation, and public policy.