Perceptions of Drought Risk Management in Zambia: Reflections from the Historic 2023/2024 Drought​

Andrew Mwape , Michael J. Hayes, Deborah Bathke, Kelly Helm Smith, Rezaul Mahmood, Elizabeth Jones

Drought risk management depends not only on understanding the physical characteristics of drought but also on how drought is experienced, interpreted, and anticipated by affected institutions and communities. This study examines perceptions of drought and their implications for risk management in Zambia using the severe 2023/2024 drought as a case study. Guided by Taylor’s perception framework encompassing experience, memory, definition, and expectation, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 153 participants, including 67 district government officials and 86 sector representatives across 31 districts in all 10 provinces of Zambia. Findings reveal broad agreement regarding the severity of drought impacts, but important differences in how drought was recognized and understood across governance levels. While 87.2% of sector representatives and 80.6% of district officials reported drought impacts, participants in some districts classified nationally as unaffected described substantial agricultural, water, energy, and livelihood impacts. National institutions primarily characterized drought using meteorological and hydrological indicators, whereas district officials incorporated observed community impacts and sector representatives largely defined drought through disruptions to livelihoods and sectoral activities. Differences were also evident in expectations for future drought. While 100% of national government officials expected drought frequency and severity to increase, this expectation was shared by 77.6% of district officials but only 17.4% of sector representatives, revealing a substantial gap in perceptions of future drought risk across governance levels. These findings demonstrate the importance of integrating scientific indicators with local and sector-specific knowledge. Strengthening participatory monitoring, climate communication, vulnerability assessment, and locally grounded preparedness could help Zambia transition from reactive drought response toward more proactive and integrated management of drought risks.
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